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20 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

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Yeah Bruce, I bet Spain, Belgium, Germany, England and France would struggle big time against *checks notes* Jamaica and Honduras.

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3 hours ago, TheScarf said:

I take it the US resulted are weighted less, seeing as apart from Mexico and Canada, they play utter jobbers all the time?

Think you mean Mexico and Costa Rica, as Canada is a jobber.

CONCACAF road games in certain places are tougher than everyone else around the world thinks, but you're right, it's pretty pish for the most part.

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Just now, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Realistically these 'hotshot' European would absolutely piss CONCACAF.  Laughable comment.

Without even conceding a goal too.

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Pretty sure they note that it’s a projection based on expected results as well?

They've got a few different ranking posts on their twitter page by the looks of it. The one posted to here was just the rankings at that moment in time and had some errors in it. We're on 1438 currently, not 1441.

If we win tonight I'll ask on one of the ranking simulation sites before the next set of games, to see if someone knows roughly the results we'd need for pot 2.

 

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1 hour ago, charger29 said:

They've got a few different ranking posts on their twitter page by the looks of it. The one posted to here was just the rankings at that moment in time and had some errors in it. We're on 1438 currently, not 1441.

If we win tonight I'll ask on one of the ranking simulation sites before the next set of games, to see if someone knows roughly the results we'd need for pot 2.

 

Ideal.  I’m presuming that four wins would probably not be enough (and the likelihood is ridiculously small!)

At this stage, a guaranteed EC playoff and Pot 2 draw for the EC would be more than sufficient 

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Well we're certainly getting closer to pot 2. Just as we've decided to start winning, everyone above us has decided to start losing.
Winning the three games would give us a very good chance now. We might even be able to get away with 2 wins and a draw if it's true that Ireland are playing (losing to) England in a friendly next month.

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I think we'd need 3 wins to be honest.

A win over Serbia in 90mins would be massive. Accoding to football-rankings it would get us up to 1460 with the 2 Nations League games to go.  Slovakia playing Northern Ireland at the same time ideally would go to penalties in that situation so the winner gets less points.

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Ireland's friendly against England confirmed and if they lose it will most likely drop them down into pot 3. Daft from them to take a friendly and if they were obliged to then attempting to organise a more winnable game would've been more sensible.

 

As Romania have done. They've now got a home game vs neighbours Belarus which they should win.

Norway were due to play Israel but it hasn't been confirmed yet I don't think.

 

 

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Ireland's friendly against England confirmed and if they lose it will most likely drop them down into pot 3. Daft from them to take a friendly and if they were obliged to then attempting to organise a more winnable game would've been more sensible.
 
Were San Marino free?
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Did Wales and Romania not do this around 2013-2014?  Arrange loads of friendlies they knew they'd win so their ranking points shot up and both ended up in pot 2 for the 2016 Euros qualifiers?

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Did Wales and Romania not do this around 2013-2014?  Arrange loads of friendlies they knew they'd win so their ranking points shot up and both ended up in pot 2 for the 2016 Euros qualifiers?
I seem to remember we did the opposite a few years ago and played a friendly against Qatar which somehow impacted negatively on our rankings and we either missed out on going up a pot, or went into a lower one.
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2 hours ago, Blootoon87 said:
2 hours ago, TheScarf said:
Did Wales and Romania not do this around 2013-2014?  Arrange loads of friendlies they knew they'd win so their ranking points shot up and both ended up in pot 2 for the 2016 Euros qualifiers?

I seem to remember we did the opposite a few years ago and played a friendly against Qatar which somehow impacted negatively on our rankings and we either missed out on going up a pot, or went into a lower one.

We also went through a period of doing what seemed like everything in our power not to play friendlies.  Didn't we have most of an international break where they just fucked off to Mar Hall for a "training camp"?

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3 hours ago, TheScarf said:

Did Wales and Romania not do this around 2013-2014?  Arrange loads of friendlies they knew they'd win so their ranking points shot up and both ended up in pot 2 for the 2016 Euros qualifiers?

It was the opposite. Wales purposefully didn't play any friendlies. They avoided them for 18months around the time they also started to win qualifiers and went from bottom seeds to top in the space of a few years.

The only reason they ended up in the bottom pot too was some student from the Faroe Islands noticed Wales and Faroe Islands were on the same rankings points but Wales were above them and calculated the points out to extra decimal places and it turned out the Faroes should be above them.

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Ireland's friendly against England confirmed and if they lose it will most likely drop them down into pot 3. Daft from them to take a friendly and if they were obliged to then attempting to organise a more winnable game would've been more sensible.
 
Assume they were obliged to do so but there will have been a limited number of teams that were available given that most would have had their friendly fixed up before the playoff semi finals.

England have only become available because New Zealand dropped out of a game with them.
Did Wales and Romania not do this around 2013-2014?  Arrange loads of friendlies they knew they'd win so their ranking points shot up and both ended up in pot 2 for the 2016 Euros qualifiers?
I'm sure Italy and the Netherlands did themselves out a top seed in recent qualifiers (maybe even finals?) by playing lowly ranked teams in friendlies. Italy played San Marino and it cost them points due to the way the ranking points were averaged.
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