FIFA rankings

[DA Baracus]

These get updated on the 4th of April.

We'll surely be tumbling down them. The Kazakhstan game will have done massive damage to them, and the San Marino game won't have helped.

Here is how they calculate it:

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings

The basic formula is

P= Pbefore +I (W - We)

• P_before – the team's number of points before the game
• I – the importance coefficient
• W – the result of the game
• W_e – the expected result of the game

But what I'm unsure about is if dr is the difference in points between the two teams or just the difference in places?

 

So if we use ranking points (287 of a difference) for dr then by my reckoning for the Kazakhstan game it's;

P = 1446 + 25 (0 - 0.1)

P = 1471 (-0.1)

P= -147.1

So we'd lose 147 ranking points and end up with 1299.

 

Actually having just done dr as the difference in places between the teams (77) it doesn't make as much difference as I thought;

P = 1446 + 25 (0 - 0.09)

P = 1471 (-0.09)

P= -132

So we'd lose 132 ranking points and slide down to 1314 points.

 

I can only go on the first method I used for dr for the San Marino game as I can't know our ranking before it without spending hours calculating all the results (that's what work is for; maybe tomorrow!).

On that basis we'd gain a massive 22.55 points from the San Marino win, putting us on 1321 points.

Before the game on Thursday here were the teams and positions around that number of points;

 

 

Is that right?

Edited March 25, 2019 by DA Baracus

[charger29]

An example of calculating the ranking points is shown here.

I started looking at the rankings last week when I heard there might be a chance of us being in pot 2 for world cup quali (it's safe to say there's no chance of that any more). It's a bit difficult understanding the formula, but I eventually got in into a spreadsheet. dr = the difference in points between the teams. It's also to the power of 10. The wiki article makes it look like just a subtraction.

The formula for the Kazakhstan game was 1446+25*(0-(1/(10^(-(1446-1159)/600)+1)))

I've tested it using previous ranking points so I believe it's correct. At the next rankings we will be on 1429.7pts (rounded up to 1430, I believe). I presume we'll drop around 10 places depending on other teams results.

[DA Baracus]

Thanks. That makes sense as I did think the points drop was a bit much when it was just a straightforward subtraction.

We'll still be dropping hard though, like you say.

[Gordopolis]

5 hours ago, DA Baracus said:

Thanks. That makes sense as I did think the points drop was a bit much when it was just a straightforward subtraction.

We'll still be dropping hard though, like you say.

Well, no point in pissing about and dropping gently, is there?

[DA Baracus]

We're down to 44th

[DA Baracus]

The top is looking a bit mental, with Belgium clinging on to the number 1 spot by a 3 points! Huge gap after France though.

Edited April 5, 2019 by DA Baracus

[Gordopolis]

Dropping only 4 points after the Kazakhstan result is quite good considering

[lanky_ffc]

Russian must be pish if they're below us. Easy 6 points IMO.

[DA Baracus]

We dropped 16 ranking points.

Morocco are a single point behind us in the rankings.

Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia are 5 points behind us.

Czech Republic are 6 points behind us.

Ghana 7.

Norway 10.

 

However we're only 3 points behind Greece and 5 behind Nigeria.

 

[DA Baracus]

Kazakhstan only went up 1 place, but that's because there was so big a gap previously. No they're very close to the teams above them, Sierra Leone and Thailand.

We lost to a team ranked below Sierra Leone and Thailand. Not just lost, but were pumped. Oh, and the Faroe Islands are ranked 102. 

[forameus]

See, this is why I hate any comparison that has its base as the FIFA rankings.  When things are bad we look at them and say "we lost to a team ranked around INSERT AFRICAN NATION HERE and fucking INSERT POSSIBLY MADE UP STATE HERE".  Given that other confederations don't play us, or anyone on our continent, it becomes a completely pointless comparison.  Teams like Kazakhstan would climb the rankings pretty quickly if they were playing such luminaries as Sierra Leone and Thailand, just like we would.  Instead, they're in a confederation where they're likely to get beat most times.  

The only view that might be useful would be looking purely at European nations, but even then it's little more than a woolly point you can mould around nothing.  "LADS WE'RE 4TH IN THE WORLD ITSCOMINGHOMEITSCOMINGHOMEBANTZBANTZBANTZ" or whatever point our media clung onto to tell us just how sad we should be that Israel beat us.  If FIFA follow UEFA's lead and start using the Nations League as a means of seeding, FIFA World Rankings will literally have no point.

[SlipperyP]

On 4/5/2019 at 19:13, DA Baracus said:

Kazakhstan only went up 1 place, but that's because there was so big a gap previously. No they're very close to the teams above them, Sierra Leone and Thailand.

We lost to a team ranked below Sierra Leone and Thailand. Not just lost, but were pumped. Oh, and the Faroe Islands are ranked 102. 

What I've seen over the last few months, Thailand would beat Scotland.  This is why the FIFA ranking are a load of pishe.

Edited April 17, 2019 by SlipperyP

[Kuro]

3 hours ago, SlipperyP said:

What I've seen over the last few months, Thailand would beat Scotland.  This is why the FIFA ranking are a load of pishe.

No they wouldn't.  List the teams their players play for.

[SlipperyP]

8 minutes ago, Kuro said:

No they wouldn't.  List the teams their players play for.

What the hell has that got to do with it?

I've watched Thailand at least 6 times in the last 6 months and Scotland 4.  Thailand are a better team, their players are much better at passing and control int the ball.  Something, we can't do very well.

They have 1 player, that shits all over players for Scotland - Chanathip Songkrasin.   Their last game was a 1-0 win (In China), are you confident, Scotland could go to China and come back with a win? I couldn't see it, not on the last two displays. 

[Ludo*1]

21 minutes ago, Kuro said:

No they wouldn't.  List the teams their players play for.

Do the same for the Kazakhstan team that beat us.

[Kuro]

14 minutes ago, SlipperyP said:

What the hell has that got to do with it?

I've watched Thailand at least 6 times in the last 6 months and Scotland 4.  Thailand are a better team, their players are much better at passing and control int the ball.  Something, we can't do very well.

They have 1 player, that shits all over players for Scotland - Chanathip Songkrasin.   Their last game was a 1-0 win (In China), are you confident, Scotland could go to China and come back with a win? I couldn't see it, not on the last two displays. 

Who does he play for?   Shall I post the list instead?  Scotland could put out five teams better than Thailand.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Kuro

[Kuro]

9 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said:

Do the same for the Kazakhstan team that beat us.

You mean the one that's ranked about seventy places below us?  

[Ludo*1]

1 minute ago, Kuro said:

You mean the one that's ranked about seventy places below us?  

Yes, and beat us? Just like Slippery P is saying about Thailand?

I've no idea what your point is here.

[SlipperyP]

3 minutes ago, Kuro said:

Who does he play for?   Shall I lost the list.instead?  Scotland could put out five teams better than Thailand.

List them?

[Kuro]

4 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said:

Yes, and beat us? Just like Slippery P is saying about Thailand?

I've no idea what your point is here.

Does that make them a better team?  Or were we underperforming.  I just don't have the time of patience to be arguing about whether Scotland are better than Kazakhstan or fkn Thailand.  Holy fk.  There aren't enough hours in the day.  I'll just mark you both down as utter morons.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Kuro