Guest Jedi Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I know that a lot has been said (rightly) following yesterdays debacle that the group is over already after one match. Usually when that happens part of me clings onto the forlorn hope that if we can only find the right manager, players turn up etc, that there is a lot of football to be played, which then results in the typically Scottish pursuit of analysing the fixtures and thinking if we just get 3pts there, 1pt here etc....However, this time it really does look like curtains, and that's if we are overly optimistic about how the remaining fixtures could pan out. Lets assume the best case scenario (remember this is probably based on a new/better manager, and the better players actually bothering to play), so here goes... Assuming that we are playing for 2nd place and in a straight battle with Russia (I know, I know after yesterday it feels like we are playing to avoid bottom spot but..) Us v Belgium (h and a) realistically 0pts v Russia (could win at home, and lets say an optimistic draw away) 4pts v Cyprus (h and a) has to be 6pts Kazaks (h) Lets say 3pts San Marino (h and a) another 6pts That would put us on 19pts assuming an unlikely return against Russia. Now, looking at the Russians... v Belgium (h) hopefully 0pts v us (h and a)...1pt v Cyprus (h and a) probably 6pts v Kazaks (h and a) 6pts v San Marino (h and a)..maximum again Leaving them on...19pts However, their goal difference will inevitably be better than ours in games against the lower ranked sides you would think. So, even in the best possible world yesterdays result looks like it has this time, pretty much sunk us before any others are played.....barring a seriously freak result v Belgium somewhere along the line. In reality we will probably lose in Moscow, and drop points somewhere against Cyprus as well anyway. Just shows why you need to take full points against the 'weaker' sides to have any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibsFan Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Jedi said: However, their goal difference will inevitably be better than ours in games against the lower ranked sides you would think. It's head to head first, not goal difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DAVIDB69 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I think it’s probably all about the nations league play offs already. Russia showed enough last night to suggest we have little chance of troubling them home or away .The nations league probably leaves us hoping Serbia qualify automatically for the euros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Fair point about the head to head, don't see us taking 4 pts from Russia either at the moment, unless we had the right management in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordopolis Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, DAVIDB69 said: I think it’s probably all about the nations league play offs already. Russia showed enough last night to suggest we have little chance of troubling them home or away . The nations league probably leaves us hoping Serbia qualify automatically for the euros Got to question whether we'd want to be at a tournament in this state? Imagine putting in a performance like that with the eyes of Europe and large parts of the rest of the world on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JTS98 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 On 3/23/2019 at 04:49, DAVIDB69 said: I think it’s probably all about the nations league play offs already. Russia showed enough last night to suggest we have little chance of troubling them home or away . The nations league probably leaves us hoping Serbia qualify automatically for the euros Absolutely this. To be honest, even before this group kicked off I was of the view that we should use the group stage to grow the team to ensure we are ready for what comes in the Nations League, as that is our best chance. That hasn't changed. And a bad start like this will be worth it f it means that we sort out the problems before the autumn. We've still got a great chance of going to the Euros, and it's easy to lose sight of that this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JTS98 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 On 3/23/2019 at 06:03, Gordopolis said: Got to question whether we'd want to be at a tournament in this state? Imagine putting in a performance like that with the eyes of Europe and large parts of the rest of the world on us. Absolutely we would. Being shite and failing to qualify doesn't change without ever qualifying. Even if we got pumped rotten at the tournament, it'd be a big financial boost for our game, it would be a real learning experience for the players and would change the way our side views itself. At the moment we view ourselves as a team that never makes it. Qualifying would change that, even if we got a pasting. We'd take a lot from it. Look at the shambles the ROI were in 2012, but they went back in 2016 and made a better job of it. Also, it would just be great fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estragon Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 On 22/03/2019 at 21:03, Gordopolis said: Got to question whether we'd want to be at a tournament in this state? Imagine putting in a performance like that with the eyes of Europe and large parts of the rest of the world on us. Imagine the idea of a tournament being partially contested in Glasgow, and Scotland aren't even in it. That's the final insult. We've got to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunz Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I'm not confident of us taking 4 points from Cyprus never mind Russia. I really hate being this negative about a campaign but I can't think of anything positive to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 It's not that complex with the Euros qualifying. Head-to-head counts, so we basically need full points from the remaining against Kazahkstan, Cyprus and San Marino, and then at least 6 from 12 against Belgium and Russia. But given it's head-to-head, and going by results so far, we likely need 6 against Russia and/or better results against Belgium than they manage. Personally I can see us managing the "easy" part of that, but lose in Russia and Belgium. We'll fight valiantly against Russia at Hampden, but ultimately draw, missing out by a few points. The good thing about international football is how spread out it is - we've been absolutely fucking hopeless this window, but we now have a couple of months before another game, and the performance in these ones becomes irrelevant. We always start badly, and then we always (Levein aberration aside) just about recover before missing out. But it's very likely to be all about the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Certainly do need to take something from Belgium now, even a point somewhere along the line. Obviously full points from Cyprus, San Marino (h) and Kazakhs (h), plus 4 from Russia. Agree that we are more likely to lose in Moscow and maybe draw with them at home though. Play-offs it essentially is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeVanTeeth Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Jedi said: Certainly do need to take something from Belgium now, even a point somewhere along the line. Obviously full points from Cyprus, San Marino (h) and Kazakhs (h), plus 4 from Russia. Agree that we are more likely to lose in Moscow and maybe draw with them at home though. Play-offs it essentially is.. We're taking nothing from Belgium, the idea is ridiculous. Doubt we'll take anything from Russia either, especially if McLeish hasn't been given his P45, in which case 0 points from those two games is a cert. Russia are on the up after their World Cup. In fact, as I mentioned yesterday, the odds on them beating Kazahstan yesterday (3/4) were amazingly generous. And I won a good few quid betting on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DAVIDB69 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Feeling Serbia will qualify automatically in their group which would remove them from our nations league play offs which would be good, could not see us beating them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Don't see us getting anything from Belgium either, point was that would now be required to qualify, which shows how forlorn it is already in the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DAVIDB69 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Don't see us getting anything from Belgium either, point was that would now be required to qualify, which shows how forlorn it is already in the group.Cyprus home and away unless it’s hot and Kazakhstan at home may be the only maximum of 12 points which will finish probably 3rd or 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hendricks Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 2 hours ago, DAVIDB69 said: Feeling Serbia will qualify automatically in their group which would remove them from our nations league play offs which would be good, could not see us beating them . Agreed. After the nightmare of the last few days tonight has potentially been a very good one for Scotland. Since the Nation's League ended I have wanted to see Serbia qualify automatically so as to avoid the play offs and they have gone to Portugal and got an excellent draw this evening. They have a lot of good players and we want them finishing in the top 2 so we don't face the prospect of playing them in a one off game. Its still early days of course but I think there is every chance looking at the groups and the results so far that we will be looking at a play off scenario whereby we play Bulgaria at Hampden and then one of either Norway/Finland at either Hampden or in Oslo/Helsinki. I don't see us or any any of those 3 countries qualifying automatically and if Serbia do that would be the 4 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distant Doonhamer Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 I’m absolutely not confident of 6 points from the 2 games v Cyprus. 3 points against Russia not impossible but 1 or 0 seems much more likely. No chance of anything v Belgium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eindhovendee Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 Feeling Serbia will qualify automatically in their group which would remove them from our nations league play offs which would be good, could not see us beating them .Looks like Ukraine have fucked up meaning Serbia more likely to qualify automatically.Ukraine may have played an ineligible player twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, eindhovendee said: Looks like Ukraine have fucked up meaning Serbia more likely to qualify automatically.Ukraine may have played an ineligible player twice. To play an ineligible player once is unfortunate. Twice smacks of carelessness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 13 hours ago, Hendricks said: Agreed. After the nightmare of the last few days tonight has potentially been a very good one for Scotland. Since the Nation's League ended I have wanted to see Serbia qualify automatically so as to avoid the play offs and they have gone to Portugal and got an excellent draw this evening. They have a lot of good players and we want them finishing in the top 2 so we don't face the prospect of playing them in a one off game. Its still early days of course but I think there is every chance looking at the groups and the results so far that we will be looking at a play off scenario whereby we play Bulgaria at Hampden and then one of either Norway/Finland at either Hampden or in Oslo/Helsinki. I don't see us or any any of those 3 countries qualifying automatically and if Serbia do that would be the 4 teams. I'm not seeing any nations in your post that I'be be confident of Scotland prevailing over. What a sorry state we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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