Semi-Final Draw

[H Wragg]

There was an OF final in 1989. [emoji6]

As for the 1990 clash, I'm pretty sure that was the first time the draw was televised and it was done using the bits of paper inside balls instead of numbered ones.

[Monkey Tennis]

14 minutes ago, H Wragg said:

There was an OF final in 1989.

As for the 1990 clash, I'm pretty sure that was the first time the draw was televised and it was done using the bits of paper inside balls instead of numbered ones.

Yeah, right enough.  Maybe the question was 'how many since 1980?'

What did I say about fallible recollections?

[Pet Jeden]

5 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

81378/ 1

Really ? If that's right, I have a choice to make. Either believe that a very outlandish series of draws took place to the benefit of 2 particular teams - or that something was maybe fixed. Hmmm. Let me ponder that.

[HibeeJibee]

While we're on the topic of OF cup draw statistical oddities, here's another fairly remarkable one (at least on paper):

In the League Cup from its inception after WWII until the early 1990s they were drawn together in the groupstage 12 times... met in the Final 11 times... but only drew each other in any other round twice.

[Pet Jeden]

2 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

While we're on the topic of OF cup draw statistical oddities, here's another fairly remarkable one (at least on paper):

In the League Cup from its inception after WWII until the early 1990s they were drawn together in the groupstage 12 times... met in the Final 11 times... but only drew each other in any other round twice.

Were the group stages not seeded ? There can't have been many years when they were not both in the top 8 or so seeds.

[Pet Jeden]

5 hours ago, HibsFan said:

Sorry, got a bit annoyed at trying to discount the Glasgow Cup stuff so I took them all out. This is just Scottish and League Cup Semi Finals now.

Just realised there are lots of years missing from these lists. "Apart" years ?

[HibeeJibee]

1 minute ago, Pet Jeden said:

Were the group stages not seeded ? There can't have been many years when they were not both in the top 8 or so seeds.

No they were just an open draw.

(Except in 1983-84 when there were 2 knockout rounds then 4 groups of 4 played over the course of the season: on that occasion the top 4 from the previous season were 'seeded' to be kept apart).

For the first few decades the old First Division clubs were drawn into 4 groups: thereafter there were 2 clubs from each division drawn into each of the 8 groups.

 

Just now, Pet Jeden said:

Just realised there are lots of years missing from these lists. "Apart" years ?

Simply lists occasions when both reached a first-team Semi-Final with an open draw and whether they were drawn together or apart.

[HibsFan]

3 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said:

Just realised there are lots of years missing from these lists. "Apart" years ?

No, they just didn't both get to the final four in those missing years.

[Pet Jeden]

On 05/03/2019 at 13:30, topcat(The most tip top) said:

If you can track down the data on how many rounds they were both in I'll crunch the data for you

topcat - best I can do is from wiki. Have only looked at Scottish Cup to avoid my brain grappling with the complication of  league sections. Started at what looks like first proper post-WW2 cup in 1946-47 (although crowds were on the up for those first 5-10 years, so it's hard to imagine why other club chairmen would go along with secretly seeding the OF)  Have looked at the 40 years to 1985-86. In my head draws started appearing on TV in the late 80's. The OF have actually been drawn together in earlier rounds a bit more than I thought,  but the semi draws do arouse curiosity - particularly if the pattern in the LC is the same. Below are the numbers of teams that were in the draws (while both OF were still in )  x  the number of times that that happened without them being paired. There were some post-war preliminary rounds involving 40,36, 28 and 26 teams.

40 x 3,  36 x 1,  32 x 35,  28 x 1,  26 x 4,  16 x 29,   8 x 17,   4 x 14

During that same period the OF were drawn together as follows

16 x 2,   8 x 3

So the questions are, how many times would the laws of mathematics have expected them to be paired ? And in particular, what are the odds of avoiding each other 14 times on the trot in the semis ?

 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

topcat - best I can do is from wiki. Have only looked at Scottish Cup to avoid my brain grappling with the complication of  league sections. Started at what looks like first proper post-WW2 cup in 1946-47 (although crowds were on the up for those first 5-10 years, so it's hard to imagine why other club chairmen would go along with secretly seeding the OF)  Have looked at the 40 years to 1985-86. In my head draws started appearing on TV in the late 80's. The OF have actually been drawn together in earlier rounds a bit more than I thought,  but the semi draws do arouse curiosity - particularly if the pattern in the LC is the same. Below are the numbers of teams that were in the draws (while both OF were still in )  x  the number of times that that happened without them being paired. There were some post-war preliminary rounds involving 40,36, 28 and 26 teams.
40 x 3,  36 x 1,  32 x 35,  28 x 1,  26 x 4,  16 x 29,   8 x 17,   4 x 14
During that same period the OF were drawn together as follows
16 x 2,   8 x 3
So the questions are, how many times would the laws of mathematics have expected them to be paired ? And in particular, what are the odds of avoiding each other 14 times on the trot in the semis ?
 

Bugger

I didn’t think you’d actually do it

Now I’ve got to actually do the sums

I’ll do it tomorrow unless I’ve got too much real work to do

[Pet Jeden]

2 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

Bugger

I didn’t think you’d actually do it

Now I’ve got to actually do the sums

I’ll do it tomorrow unless I’ve got too much real work to do

 

Cheers. my crude guesstimation is that the early round pairings are not miles short of the expected average. But the odds on the semi-avoidance will be big.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

14 hours ago, Pet Jeden said:

Cheers. my crude guesstimation is that the early round pairings are not miles short of the expected average. But the odds on the semi-avoidance will be big.

Pretty much 

Aside from the semi finals those numbers look utterly un remarkable

36 to 40 Teams: 4 Draws 0.1 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
26 to 32 Teams: 40 Draws 1.3 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-1.3)
16 Teams: 31 Draws 2.1 ExpectedMeetings,2  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
8 Teams: 20 Draws 2.9 ExpectedMeetings,3  ActualMeetings( 0.1)
4 Teams: 14 Draws 4.7 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-4.7)

That's the easy bit

I'll do the polynomial distribution  bit later

 

[kingjoey]

 I act pretty sad at times, but you lot take the biscuit. 

[topcat(The most tip top)]

24 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Pretty much 

Aside from the semi finals those numbers look utterly un remarkable

36 to 40 Teams: 4 Draws 0.1 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
26 to 32 Teams: 40 Draws 1.3 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-1.3)
16 Teams: 31 Draws 2.1 ExpectedMeetings,2  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
8 Teams: 20 Draws 2.9 ExpectedMeetings,3  ActualMeetings( 0.1)
4 Teams: 14 Draws 4.7 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-4.7)

That's the easy bit

I'll do the polynomial distribution  bit later

 

Looking at all 117 draws in your sample that's 67/1 against

It's as weird as tossing a coin 7 times and it landing the same way each time

 

[IainMorton]

1 hour ago, kingjoey said:

 I act pretty sad at times, but you lot take the biscuit. 

Will all be for nothing when Celtic face Aberdeen in the semi final anyway  

[7-2]

'The magnificent SFA do absolutely everything by the book and are above reproach in every aspect.  Everyone that thinks otherwise is a conspiracy theorist'.  Ah bless. This is at least the third time this has been done and still HibeeJibee comes out with his same old schtick. Disappointing lack of 'tin foil hat' though.

Governments are corrupt, major corporations are corrupt, churches and charities are corrupt,  the Olympics are corrupt and the ultimate case study for institutional corruption is football's own FIFA yet somehow the standard business affliction of manipulation to suit has somehow totally bypassed  little old Scottish football's HQ in Glasgow. Hibee and the rest of the spreadsheet loyal really do need to get out of their spare rooms more and experience what happens in the real world. Corruption in all its forms is widespread although it's difficult for some to understand as Excel doesn't have a column for it.

[Pet Jeden]

1 hour ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Pretty much 

Aside from the semi finals those numbers look utterly un remarkable

36 to 40 Teams: 4 Draws 0.1 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
26 to 32 Teams: 40 Draws 1.3 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-1.3)
16 Teams: 31 Draws 2.1 ExpectedMeetings,2  ActualMeetings(-0.1)
8 Teams: 20 Draws 2.9 ExpectedMeetings,3  ActualMeetings( 0.1)
4 Teams: 14 Draws 4.7 ExpectedMeetings,0  ActualMeetings(-4.7)

That's the easy bit

I'll do the polynomial distribution  bit later

 

Oh aye.  You just can't beat a cheeky wee distribution of yer polynomials. Or so I am told.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

2 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said:

Oh aye.  You just can't beat a cheeky wee distribution of yer polynomials. Or so I am told.

Technically it's actually a 
Poisson binomial distribution

[Pet Jeden]

1 minute ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Technically it's actually a 
Poisson binomial distribution

Yup. That's what I'm wondering. Is it fishy ?

[7-2]

3 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Technically it's actually a 
Poisson binomial distribution

Even the statisticians know it's fishy.

@Pet Jeden  Grrrrrrrr...too quick for me!