Guest Bob Mahelp Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 10 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: Tbh, it's becoming a bit of an old chestnut nowadays - OF have actually drawn each other in Semi-Finals as often in recent times than they've been drawn apart. Where it originates from was a fairly incredible run from about 1960 to 1990 where they only drew each other 3 times out of almost 50 appearances in Semi-Finals. If you believe the conspiracy theory this came to a halt at about the time draws began to be televised live from late 1980s/early 1990s. This is the list of occasions they've both appeared in the Semi-Finals of first-team tournaments and the outcome: 1889-90 GLA APART 1891-92 SCO TOGETHER 1891-92 GLC APART 1892-93 GLC APART 1892-93 GLA APART 1893-94 SCO APART 1893-94 GLA TOGETHER 1893-94 GLC APART 1894-95 GLA APART 1894-95 GLC APART 1895-96 GLC TOGETHER 1896-97 GLA APART 1896-97 GLC TOGETHER 1897-98 GLA TOGETHER 1897-98 GLC TOGETHER 1898-99 SCO APART 1898-99 GLA TOGETHER 1898-99 GLC APART 1899-00 SCO TOGETHER 1899-00 GLA APART 1899-00 GLC APART 1900-01 GLC TOGETHER 1901-02 SCO APART 1901-02 GLA APART 1903-04 SCO APART 1903-04 GLC APART 1904-05 SCO TOGETHER 1904-05 GLA APART 1905-06 GLA APART 1905-06 GLC TOGETHER 1906-07 GLC APART 1907-08 GLA APART 1907-08 GLC APART 1908-09 SCO APART 1908-09 GLA TOGETHER 1908-09 GLC APART 1909-10 GLA APART 1910-11 GLA APART 1910-11 GLC APART 1911-12 GLC APART 1912-13 GLA APART 1912-13 GLC APART 1913-14 GLA APART 1913-14 GLC APART 1914-15 GLC APART 1915-16 GLA APART 1915-16 GLC TOGETHER 1916-17 GLA TOGETHER 1916-17 GLC TOGETHER 1917-18 WAR APART 1917-18 GLA TOGETHER 1918-19 GLA APART 1918-19 GLC APART 1919-20 GLC TOGETHER 1920-21 GLA TOGETHER 1920-21 GLC APART 1921-22 GLA APART 1921-22 GLC TOGETHER 1922-23 GLC TOGETHER 1923-24 GLA TOGETHER 1923-24 GLC APART 1924-25 SCO TOGETHER 1924-25 GLA APART 1925-26 SCO APART 1925-26 GLA TOGETHER 1926-27 GLA APART 1926-27 GLC TOGETHER 1927-28 SCO APART 1927-28 GLA APART 1927-28 GLC TOGETHER 1928-29 SCO APART 1928-29 GLC APART 1929-30 GLA APART 1929-30 GLC APART 1930-31 GLA APART 1931-32 GLA TOGETHER 1931-32 GLC APART 1932-33 GLA APART 1932-33 GLC APART 1933-34 GLA TOGETHER 1933-34 GLC APART 1934-35 GLA TOGETHER 1934-35 GLC APART 1935-36 GLA APART 1935-36 GLC APART 1936-37 GLA TOGETHER 1937-38 GLA TOGETHER 1937-38 GLC APART 1939-40 GLA APART 1939-40 GLC TOGETHER 1940-41 SLG APART 1940-41 GLA APART 1940-41 GLC APART 1941-42 SLG TOGETHER 1941-42 GLA TOGETHER 1941-42 GLC TOGETHER 1943-44 SLG TOGETHER 1943-44 GLC APART 1944-45 GLA APART 1944-45 GLC APART 1945-46 VIC TOGETHER 1945-46 GLC TOGETHER 1946-47 GLC APART 1947-48 SCO APART 1947-48 GLA APART 1947-48 GLC APART 1948-49 GLA APART 1948-49 GLC APART 1949-50 GLA TOGETHER 1949-50 GLC APART 1950-51 GLA APART 1951-52 LGE TOGETHER 1952-53 GLC APART 1953-54 SCO APART 1953-54 GLA TOGETHER 1954-55 GLA APART 1954-55 GLC TOGETHER 1955-56 GLA APART 1957-58 LGE APART 1957-58 GLC TOGETHER 1958-59 GLC TOGETHER 1959-60 SCO TOGETHER 1959-60 GLC TOGETHER 1961-62 SCO APART 1961-62 GLA APART 1962-63 SCO APART 1963-64 GLA APART 1964-65 LGE APART 1965-66 LGE APART 1965-66 SCO APART 1966-67 LGE APART 1968-69 SCO APART 1968-69 GLA TOGETHER 1969-70 GLA APART 1970-71 LGE APART 1970-71 SCO APART 1970-71 GLA APART 1971-72 SCO APART 1972-73 DRY APART 1972-73 LGE APART 1972-73 SCO APART 1973-74 DRY APART 1973-74 LGE TOGETHER 1974-75 DRY APART 1974-75 GLA APART 1975-76 LGE APART 1975-76 GLA APART 1976-77 LGE APART 1976-77 SCO APART 1977-78 LGE APART 1978-79 LGE TOGETHER 1978-79 GLA APART 1979-80 DRY APART 1979-80 SCO APART 1979-80 GLA APART 1980-81 SCO APART 1980-81 GLA APART 1981-82 GLA APART 1982-83 LGE APART 1982-83 SCO APART 1982-83 GLA APART 1983-84 LGE APART 1984-85 GLA APART 1985-86 GLA APART 1986-87 LGE APART 1986-87 GLA APART 1987-88 GLA APART 1988-89 SCO APART 1989-90 LGE APART 1990-91 LGE APART 1991-92 SCO TOGETHER 1992-93 LGE APART 1993-94 LGE TOGETHER 1995-96 SCO TOGETHER 1997-98 SCO TOGETHER 1998-99 SCO APART 2000-01 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 SCO APART 2002-03 LGE APART 2008-09 LGE APART 2010-11 LGE APART 2014-15 LGE TOGETHER 2015-16 SCO TOGETHER 2016-17 LGE TOGETHER 2016-17 SCO TOGETHER 2017-18 LGE APART 2017-18 SCO TOGETHER 2018-19 LGE APART 2018-19 SCO TOGETHER The OF were in 49 semi-finals from 61/62 to 91/92 and they were drawn together 4 times. And then only once in the Scottish cup. That's where the rumours of a constant fix come from. Funnily enough, once the draws started to be televised then the number of times they've met in semi-finals has been far more balanced. Edit : Ooooooooooooooops. I should have read the first 2 paragraphs before posting. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 12 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said: It's actually remarkable the extent to which they don't get kept apart these days. It would be good to plot the draws that put them together with when draws were actually televised. From the mid 1950s crowds began to wane and chairmen outwith the OF were no doubt pleased with the money that a cup draw against the OF would bring. From the mid 50s through the 60s and 70s to the mid 80s, despite them both being in almost every Scottish and League cup draw, 1st round, 2nd round, quarters and even semis (where it was 1 in 3 chance), I think they were only ever drawn together a handful of times. Then came regular televising of cup draws and, by coincidence, they started getting drawn together sometimes. Could their mutual avoidance just have been a very long statistical blip ? Call me a cynic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 You could just as easily argue that being drawn together in 6 of the last 8 semi-final draws is incredibly unlikely given that they should only have a 1 in 3 chance. People always look for patterns in randomness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, craigkillie said: You could just as easily argue that being drawn together in 6 of the last 8 semi-final draws is incredibly unlikely given that they should only have a 1 in 3 chance. People always look for patterns in randomness. Yes, but where there is motive and strange runs of draws, cynics are bound to ask the question. For balance. I would have to say that Rangers run of home draws in the cups was handy for a team desperate to get to Hampden and be relevant in a period when Celtic were on a different planet and Hearts run of "money-spinner" home cup draws against Celtic and Hibs just when we desperately needed to money to climb back out of Admin woes, was fortuitous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, craigkillie said: You could just as easily argue that being drawn together in 6 of the last 8 semi-final draws is incredibly unlikely given that they should only have a 1 in 3 chance. People always look for patterns in randomness. It's a bit more than double what you'd expect. Of course, you could argue that now the incentive is actually to draw them together for TV money ! But 6 instead of 2 or 3, over a short period of time is not in the same incredulity league as only being drawn together 4 times out of 49 semis over 3 decades !! Is it ? And that's before you even take in to consideration the quarters and all the early rounds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said: Yes, but where there is motive and strange runs of draws, cynics are bound to ask the question. For balance. I would have to say that Rangers run of home draws in the cups was handy for a team desperate to get to Hampden and be relevant in a period when Celtic were on a different planet and Hearts run of "money-spinner" home cup draws against Celtic and Hibs just when we desperately needed to money to climb back out of Admin woes, was fortuitous. What you are suggesting here is that a series of celebrities and former footballers have been willing to put their reputation on the line in order to fix a cup draw. It's not like it's some wee guy from the SFA picking them out in secret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 38 minutes ago, craigkillie said: You could just as easily argue that being drawn together in 6 of the last 8 semi-final draws is incredibly unlikely given that they should only have a 1 in 3 chance. People always look for patterns in randomness. The odds against them meeting more than 5 times out of 8 are about 50/1 The odds against then not meeting at all in 8 draws are about 25/1 Both are unlikely but not incredibly so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 We all make jokes about it, which is fine - but anyone who genuinely believes that any cup draw in the last 30 years or so has been rigged in favour of keeping the "Old Firm" apart needs their head examined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 hours ago, craigkillie said: What you are suggesting here is that a series of celebrities and former footballers have been willing to put their reputation on the line in order to fix a cup draw. It's not like it's some wee guy from the SFA picking them out in secret. No. I'm kind of arguing against myself. I'm saying the old non-televised draws keeping the OF apart are hard to believe. But, on the other hand, longish sequences of open, televised draws can also throw up weird, lucky runs - which Hearts and Rangers have both benefited from in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: The odds against them meeting more than 5 times out of 8 are about 50/1 The odds against then not meeting at all in 8 draws are about 25/1 Both are unlikely but not incredibly so topcat - if you have the maths nous for it (I certainly don't) - what would have been the odds on the OF only being drawn together at any stage of the SC or LC 3 times between 1955 and 1990 ? ( or, on average, how many times would they be expected to meet ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 hours ago, craigkillie said: What you are suggesting here is that a series of celebrities and former footballers have been willing to put their reputation on the line in order to fix a cup draw. It's not like it's some wee guy from the SFA picking them out in secret. Tell you what - if I was fixing a draw I wouldn't be inviting an off-his-face Rod Stewart to help ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 24 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said: topcat - if you have the maths nous for it (I certainly don't) - what would have been the odds on the OF only being drawn together at any stage of the SC or LC 3 times between 1955 and 1990 ? ( or, on average, how many times would they be expected to meet ?) If you can track down the data on how many rounds they were both in I'll crunch the data for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 24 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said: topcat - if you have the maths nous for it (I certainly don't) - what would have been the odds on the OF only being drawn together at any stage of the SC or LC 3 times between 1955 and 1990 ? ( or, on average, how many times would they be expected to meet ?) I'm almost certainly wrong, but isn't it 1 in 3 for both, those being the odds of being drawn together in the semi-final draw? At each round, the odds are 1 in (n-1), where n is the total number of teams in the hat. But if each round passes without them being drawn together, you end up at the shortest possible odds - 1 in 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 33 minutes ago, The Master said: I'm almost certainly wrong, but isn't it 1 in 3 for both, those being the odds of being drawn together in the semi-final draw? At each round, the odds are 1 in (n-1), where n is the total number of teams in the hat. But if each round passes without them being drawn together, you end up at the shortest possible odds - 1 in 3. Assuming neither side lose to anyone else it's slightly less than a 50% chance of meeting before the final We could do some difficult maths but instead it should be intuitively clear if you imagine doing the whole draw in advance like at Wimbledon In a 32 team draw there's 15 chances to be in the same half of the draw and 16 chances to be in the other. However Celtic and Rangers can and do get knocked out early by other teams which is why we'd need more data as to what draws they were in together. In seasons where someone else eliminates one or both of them the chances are lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 I'm not hot on maths formula: what are the odds of that 1961 > 1991 run where they drew each other 3 from a possible 47 in SFs? That is what got people's eyebrows raised: the conspiracy theory assigns it to draws being done in private, inferring they were arranged to keep an OF final possible, and that this ended when draws started to be televised. You need the hot-n-cold balls myth to perpetuate the conspiracy theory into the TV era (illogically given the "apart" trend stops). Btw, they did meet in earlier rounds, from time-to-time... the conspiracy theory is that, both having made SFs, it was desirable they be kept apart. Indeed they sometimes met in LC groups so often people claimed it was a fix - after crowd trouble the chief magistrate even queried it in 1971 (being 4th time in 5 seasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 2 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: I'm not hot on maths formula: what are the odds of that 1961 > 1991 run where they drew each other 3 from a possible 47 in SFs? 81378/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibsFan Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 18 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: 1891-92 SCO TOGETHER 1893-94 SCO APART 1898-99 SCO APART 1899-00 SCO TOGETHER 1901-02 SCO APART 1903-04 SCO APART 1904-05 SCO TOGETHER 1908-09 SCO APART 1924-25 SCO TOGETHER 1925-26 SCO APART 1927-28 SCO APART 1928-29 SCO APART 1947-48 SCO APART 1951-52 LGE TOGETHER 1953-54 SCO APART 1957-58 LGE APART 1959-60 SCO TOGETHER 1961-62 SCO APART 1962-63 SCO APART 1964-65 LGE APART 1965-66 LGE APART 1965-66 SCO APART 1966-67 LGE APART 1968-69 SCO APART 1970-71 LGE APART 1970-71 SCO APART 1971-72 SCO APART 1972-73 LGE APART 1972-73 SCO APART 1973-74 LGE TOGETHER 1975-76 LGE APART 1976-77 LGE APART 1976-77 SCO APART 1977-78 LGE APART 1978-79 LGE TOGETHER 1979-80 SCO APART 1980-81 SCO APART 1982-83 LGE APART 1982-83 SCO APART 1983-84 LGE APART 1986-87 LGE APART 1988-89 SCO APART 1989-90 LGE APART 1990-91 LGE APART 1991-92 SCO TOGETHER 1992-93 LGE APART 1993-94 LGE TOGETHER 1995-96 SCO TOGETHER 1997-98 SCO TOGETHER 1998-99 SCO APART 2000-01 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 LGE TOGETHER 2001-02 SCO APART 2002-03 LGE APART 2008-09 LGE APART 2010-11 LGE APART 2014-15 LGE TOGETHER 2015-16 SCO TOGETHER 2016-17 LGE TOGETHER 2016-17 SCO TOGETHER 2017-18 LGE APART 2017-18 SCO TOGETHER 2018-19 LGE APART 2018-19 SCO TOGETHER Sorry, got a bit annoyed at trying to discount the Glasgow Cup stuff so I took them all out. This is just Scottish and League Cup Semi Finals now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empty It Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 81378/ 1Wish I had a fiver on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micaley68 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 5 hours ago, The Master said: We all make jokes about it, which is fine - but anyone who genuinely believes that any cup draw in the last 30 years or so has been rigged in favour of keeping the "Old Firm" apart needs their head examined. Nah no having that! They've been kept (possibly) together this time cos can you imagine the fallout if septic achieved the treble treble against them in the final???? So I'm calling fix!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Some great stats on this thread. They pretty much confirm my increasingly fallible recollections. Basically, until they met early in the 1990 Scottish Cup, I couldn't remember them ever playing each other in cups outside of finals. It turns out the pattern went way earlier than anything I could remember too. Since the Rangers re-birth of course, it's happened an awful lot, and when it's not, Aberdeen and Motherwell have prevented an OF final. Another myth actually concerned how many OF finals we got for a while, especially in the Scottish Cup. I remember in 1999 when we got an OF final, someone asking the presenter on Radio 5 - might have been John Inverdale - how many there'd been in the last 20 years. The pillock guessed 7, when the answer was actually just 1, and that was from 19 years before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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