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FairWeatherFan

Mathematical Certainty for 2019-20

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In arranging the Conference Tables I was wondering how many clubs were definitely in or out of EoS Premier Division contention. Especially as the EoS has still to decide what its Tier 7 set up will look like for 2019-20.

Right now you've got

EoS Premier Division:

  1. Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
  2. Broxburn Athletic
  3. Linlithgow Rose
  4. Penicuik Athletic

EoS First Divison(s) or Conferences:

  1. Arniston Rangers
  2. Burntisland Shipyard
  3. Dunipace
  4. Eyemouth United
  5. Hawick Royal Albert
  6. Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
  7. Oakley United
  8. Ormiston
  9. Tweedmouth Rangers
  10. Tynecastle

image.png.5b25c8cd24b5890e442f3a703c244e05.png

image.png.c48b7f95bc9c6733609d2d6cadffa01b.png

image.png.7a865515c6a5d7c54df009358d8e44a8.png

 

Edited by FairWeatherFan

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Penicuik are also in the Premier Division as only one of Easthouses/Coldstream can go above them.

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6 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

Penicuik are also in the Premier Division as only one of Easthouses/Coldstream can go above them.

Probably should have factored in remaining fixtures :whistle

Thanks.

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One or two of those guaranteed EoS Premier Division status could well be in the Lowland League next season, to be replaced by one dropping out the LL.

There should be two LL positions available with the demise of Selkirk earlier in the season and the relegation of the bottom side of the remaining 15. 

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1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

One or two of those guaranteed EoS Premier Division status could well be in the Lowland League next season, to be replaced by one dropping out the LL.

There should be two LL positions available with the demise of Selkirk earlier in the season and the relegation of the bottom side of the remaining 15. 

Selkirk are being treated as the bottom club now apparently

 

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31 minutes ago, AlanCamelonfan said:

Selkirk are being treated as the bottom club now apparently

Has there been an update from the LL following their statement in September?

http://slfl.co.uk/selkirks-resignation-what-happens-next/#more-11526

Following a meeting of the Lowland League board last night, Selkirk’s resignation from the GeoSonic Lowland League has been accepted.

Following discussions between board members at the meeting it was agreed that all fixtures played by and to be played by Selkirk FC in 2018/19 will be expunged from the record along with any other data involving Selkirk in this season, and the Lowland League will move forward with 15 clubs in 2018/19.

In terms of relegation from the league, in line with Rule B14 which states that relegation will apply to “the bottom club in The Scottish Lowland Football League”, we can confirm that the team which finishes 15th in this season’s competition will be relegated from the Lowland League. The League will return to 16 clubs for season 2019/20 as per the current rules.

League Chairperson George Fraser said: “Following the sad withdrawal of Selkirk the board were faced with a number of questions, most notably what happens with regard to relegation from the Lowland League this season. The rules make it clear that relegation should apply to the bottom team in the division – regardless of how many teams there are at the end of the season – the Lowland League will then return to a sixteen team division for 2019/20.”

The permutations around the makeup of a 16 team Lowland League for next season will depend on the outcome of the pyramid playoff matches and and that situation will be updated at the appropriate time.

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5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Has there been an update from the LL following their statement in September?

http://slfl.co.uk/selkirks-resignation-what-happens-next/#more-11526

 

 

Earlier this month it was said to be changed to Selkirk being regarded as 16th in Lowland League. Think this filtered through from EoS sources.

Then last weekend HibeeJibee posted the below. And i'm not sure where that leaves things exactly.

On 16/02/2019 at 13:30, HibeeJibee said:

Clearly you couldn't wait until all scenarios were clear as that may not be until Saturday 18th May when the playoff final 2nd legs happen. Not enough time to organise an application process.


An argument could be made that gaps should be filled with the next highest placed licensed club rather than by application.

However you've got 2 immediate problems: what if the next 2 both finished (say) 3rd in EOSL & SOSL respectively - or even if its clear-cut, what if they objected to being unexpectedly promoted from mid-table?




EDIT:

https://www.scottishfa.co.uk/news/lowland-league-membership-application-update/?rid=13929

 

From what I heard this afternoon - SFA wouldn't endorse such a rule change at this stage of the season, as it would materially effect what people thought they were playing for.

As outlined it may be academic, but as you were afoot LL, or alternatively:

this-is-not-a-drill-fire-alarm-emergency

 

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4 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:

Earlier this month it was said to be changed to Selkirk being regarded as 16th in Lowland League. Think this filtered through from EoS sources.

Then last weekend HibeeJibee posted the below. And i'm not sure where that leaves things exactly.

 

its easily done they will just re elect club 15 or 14 if albion rovers go down and Cove go up

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its easily done they will just re elect club 15 or 14 if albion rovers go down and Cove go up


Piss poor self protection if they do, they should elect the best club with the best facilities that meet licence standards. Am I right in thinking The clubs in the drop spots don’t have lights? If so there are stronger candidates that should get in ahead of them.

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Selkirk's demise throws-up so many extra permutations it's not worth trying to consider them.

EOSL champion being licensed or not, Cove going up or not, Whitehill or Dalbeattie coming bottom, and if so getting re-elected or not, etc. etc.


If we assume: (1) no SOSL club is going up automatically or winning a vote; and (2) Dalbeattie aren't finishing bottom or losing a vote... then you need 16 if Cove go up, or 17 if they don't. Everyone outside that 16 or 17 will be in the level below the new Premier Division.

Obviously it's impossible at this stage to say whether a few of those 16 or 17 will be playing in LL or EOSL. That's hardly surprising given still plenty of football to be played.

Keep it simple... 16 or 17.


EDIT: My "if we assume" point is to avoid bothering with extra permutations (LL gaining a club from SOSL/losing a club to SOSL). It is already massively unlikely a licensed club will win SOSL... Threave are 7th, 18pts behind, with 9 games left. It is even more unlikely anyone else would apply and win a vote. It is fairly unlikely Dalbeattie will finish bottom, being 5pts clear with 2 games-in-hand and much better GD.

Edited by HibeeJibee

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Camelon Juniors and Jeanfield Swifts have now secured their spots in the 2019-20 EoS Premier Division.

EoS Premier Division:

  1. Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
  2. Broxburn Athletic
  3. Camelon Juniors
  4. Jeanfield Swifts
  5. Linlithgow Rose
  6. Penicuik Athletic

EoS First Divison(s) or Conferences:

  1. Arniston Rangers
  2. Burntisland Shipyard
  3. Dunipace
  4. Eyemouth United
  5. Hawick Royal Albert
  6. Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
  7. Oakley United
  8. Ormiston
  9. Tweedmouth Rangers
  10. Tynecastle

image.png.a6e3c3d2b8e57b77d67943ddeb34164f.png

image.png.daa68f5065365cedb63d7c1a4c96b401.png

image.png.cd80b8b2179b3ef640204c83a001f676.png

 

 

Edited by FairWeatherFan

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I don't suppose it is particularly surprising that the 11 clubs from the old East Superleague are on course to finish in the top 17 of new EOSL; but even then Sauchie are dicing with missing out.

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On 23/02/2019 at 22:26, San Starko Rover said:

 


Piss poor self protection if they do, they should elect the best club with the best facilities that meet licence standards. Am I right in thinking The clubs in the drop spots don’t have lights? If so there are stronger candidates that should get in ahead of them.

 

Not quite. Apart from Whitehill, the next club without lights are Vale in 10th place with a couple of games in hand over most of their their rivals. FWIW, I would have no complaints if WW went down as tier 5 is a big ask for a village club surrounded by clubs such as Bonnyrigg and Penicuik. We've been rank rotten this/last season though you can argue all the reasons for this, and never been the same since the break up of the EoS winning team of 2013.

I don't really buy the protectionist argument either. Whitehill had a lot of goodwill in the old EoS and the early years of the LL, but Andrew Renwick, who just about made LL Chairman, has retired, a lot of the power has shifted to the west, and they want a more professional league for SPFL clubs to drop into. In the same way that the LL rejected Mr Waddell after his move to Edinburgh Uni, I don't think WW will gather a lot of sentiment from the more ambitious LL clubs. One example of this was the decree at the beginnning of 2018-19 that midweek games should kick off at 7.45, leaving clubs such as WW to make arrangements to groundshare at ridiculous expense.

Edited by The Mantis
I don't know what season it is

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The weather wiped out the majority of games this weekend. However, Musselburgh's first trip to England on league business secured their EoS Premier Division status for next season. I have also added Craigroyston, Edinburgh United and University of Stirling EoS to the EoS First Divison listings as I realised they would have the worst 6th placed status if they were ever to reach it.

EoS Premier Division:

  1. Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
  2. Broxburn Athletic
  3. Camelon Juniors
  4. Jeanfield Swifts
  5. Linlithgow Rose
  6. Musselburgh Athletic
  7. Penicuik Athletic

EoS First Divison(s) or Conferences:

  1. Arniston Rangers
  2. Burntisland Shipyard
  3. Craigroyston
  4. Dunipace
  5. Edinburgh United
  6. Eyemouth United
  7. Hawick Royal Albert
  8. Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
  9. Oakley United
  10. Ormiston
  11. Tweedmouth Rangers
  12. Tynecastle
  13. University of Stirling EoS

image.png.7926c68e207a0dc62e989392b6907e0d.png 

image.png.3bdbf8b7e6eb061f75e33a560d1b5137.png

image.png.2a0dd37ad4b66c02219b3b87839a9102.png

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Thanks to tonight's win by Hill of Beath against Coldstream, both the Haws and Nitten clinch their spots in the EoS Premier. That's now 9/15 automatic spots claimed with 8 of those coming from Conference A & C.

EoS Premier Division:

  1. Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
  2. Broxburn Athletic
  3. Camelon Juniors
  4. Hill of Beath Hawthorn
  5. Jeanfield Swifts
  6. Linlithgow Rose
  7. Musselburgh Athletic
  8. Newtongrange Star
  9. Penicuik Athletic

EoS First Divison(s) or Conferences:

  1. Arniston Rangers
  2. Burntisland Shipyard
  3. Craigroyston
  4. Dunipace
  5. Edinburgh United
  6. Eyemouth United
  7. Hawick Royal Albert
  8. Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
  9. Oakley United
  10. Ormiston
  11. Tweedmouth Rangers
  12. Tynecastle
  13. University of Stirling EoS

image.png.d7189e935baaf32f424160eab97c7de7.png

image.png.d6d291f920de57eee637a100e617bb03.png

image.png.3d1e37c846dc3e8b06b495038614d98c.png

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10 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:

Thanks to tonight's win by Hill of Beath against Coldstream, both the Haws and Nitten clinch their spots in the EoS Premier. That's now 9/15 automatic spots claimed with 8 of those coming from Conference A & C.

EoS Premier Division:

  1. Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
  2. Broxburn Athletic
  3. Camelon Juniors
  4. Hill of Beath Hawthorn
  5. Jeanfield Swifts
  6. Linlithgow Rose
  7. Musselburgh Athletic
  8. Newtongrange Star
  9. Penicuik Athletic

EoS First Divison(s) or Conferences:

  1. Arniston Rangers
  2. Burntisland Shipyard
  3. Craigroyston
  4. Dunipace
  5. Edinburgh United
  6. Eyemouth United
  7. Hawick Royal Albert
  8. Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
  9. Oakley United
  10. Ormiston
  11. Tweedmouth Rangers
  12. Tynecastle
  13. University of Stirling EoS

image.png.d7189e935baaf32f424160eab97c7de7.png

image.png.d6d291f920de57eee637a100e617bb03.png

image.png.3d1e37c846dc3e8b06b495038614d98c.png

On the present table - Preston and possibly Leith will be the only original EoS teams making the top flight and on recent history LTHV the biggest loser.  Crossgates/Dunbar are probably the surprise packages from the ex Juniors and Sauchie the biggest losers from the old East of Scotland Juniors. 

Edited by Auld Heid
.

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The funny thing is. The teams that just make it this year, let's say Leith and Crossgates, could easily struggle next season, in a very tough league. And in the division below LTHV and Sauchie could very well have standout seasons. But of course, can't really think that far ahead. Just have to try and make it this season. 

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LTHV could still get there if they win their games in hand, there is a good chance that conference B will also produce the best 6th place finisher.

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2 hours ago, Auld Heid said:

On the present table - Preston and possibly Leith will be the only original EoS teams making the top flight and on recent history LTHV the biggest loser.  Crossgates/Dunbar are probably the surprise packages from the ex Juniors and Sauchie the biggest losers from the old East of Scotland Juniors. 

In Sauchie's case I think they could be a prime candidate for best 6th placed. So it might not be all doom and gloom for them. Still of course have a decent shout at the top 5 as well.

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