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Relegation Royal Rumble


Golden Bucket and Spade Winner 2018-2019  

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50 minutes ago, Rob1885 said:

Worth mentioning that since Crawford took over, we've not lost to a team below us in the league

Did you have to mention that before we play a side below us in the league :thumbsdown

25 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

I don't get upset on a football forum ;) I made a comment that you disagreed with. The depths you went to was a bit bizarre. A "Nah we're safe, you're talking shite" would have sufficed.

I can only assume you're a bit of a simpleton if you considered my post thorough or complex in any way.

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Based on your 43 point scenario I thought I would try this for my own club for fun, who have 24 points from 24 games:
 
Dundee U (Home) Draw
Morton (Away). Win [emoji16]
Ayr (Home). Draw
Partick T (Home). Draw
QoS (Away). Draw
ICT (Away). Draw
Alloa (Home). Win
Dunfermline (Away). Lose
Morton (Home). Win
Dundee U (Away). Lose
Ross C (Home). Draw
Ross C (Away). Lose
 
That puts us on 39 points.
I sure hope you are wrong about 43 points....
 

Thought I’d look these up to see what’s really happened. Got 5 of the seven that we’ve completed right so far. If the remaining results work out we’d end up with the 39 points I predicted.
Trouble is, I’m not sure if that’s good enough for 8th...
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Don't think tonight's games made anything clearer. Probably have Morton some confidence back after Saturday but that's about it. 
Still think Pars need one more win. 
One win will see the pars safe. I could be wrong but I think from the permutations Fuctifano did 43 points made you safe every time. Not a lot clearer after tonight although QotS look to be crawling towards safety. Unlikely to be much clearer after the weekend either although dunfermline could be safe obviously.
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I'll re-run when I'm at work tomorrow (mainly because the spreadsheet is on my work computer), I never got round to posting this but when I plugged in 6 x 1-0 losses for Dunfermline and simmed the rest of the games they were still safe 82% of the time and that will have gone up after tonight. They're likely to be fine even if they implode. Although I hope any recovery starts after Saturday...

Alloa's next 4 matches are the 4 teams directly above them

Morton and Queens have 3 of the other 4 teams in the fight still to play

Thistle and Falkirk have just 2

This could obviously work either way with the teams at the top  if the league is settled or if teams are resting players ahead of the playoffs. You'd think it'll go to the wire.

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Did a quick results prediction for the remaining games and i was left with;

Queens- 41

Thistle- 41

Morton- 40

Falkirk- 39

Alloa- 31

Whilst I would take that, it would be bloody nerve racking on the final day if it's this close.

Edited by madton
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1 hour ago, madton said:

Did a quick results prediction for the remaining games and i was left with;

Queens- 41

Thistle- 41

Morton- 40

Falkirk- 39

Alloa- 31

Whilst I would take that, it would be bloody nerve racking on the final day if it's this close.

You only see us picking up 5 points from our next 6 games? 

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1 hour ago, Sting777 said:

I can see us being safe if we win our remaining home games (Pars, Alloa, Ayr) but I think there are going to be a lot of twist and turns coming up in the next few weeks!!

If any team other than Alloa gets 9 points from their remaining games it would take a ridiculous set of results from the other sides not to stay up. If you get to 41 points from this position then every team above you isn’t getting 42.

1 minute ago, Colkitto said:

You only see us picking up 5 points from our next 6 games? 

One win, two draws and three defeats is an entirely realistic prediction for our remaining fixtures. In that scenario, if the defeats came against ICT, Dunfermline and Dundee Utd rather than QoS, Falkirk or Alloa meaning none gained on us in head to heads 39 points could feasibly see us limp into 8th.

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Did a quick results prediction for the remaining games and i was left with;
Queens- 41
Thistle- 41
Morton- 40
Falkirk- 39
Alloa- 31
Whilst I would take that, it would be bloody nerve racking on the final day if it's this close.
2 points from 6 games would be quite a collapse in form for us - we're currently at 29 points from 30 games. 0.97points per game. Although we probably need to do better than that to stay up.
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52 minutes ago, Dink said:
3 hours ago, madton said:
Did a quick results prediction for the remaining games and i was left with;
Queens- 41
Thistle- 41
Morton- 40
Falkirk- 39
Alloa- 31
Whilst I would take that, it would be bloody nerve racking on the final day if it's this close.

2 points from 6 games would be quite a collapse in form for us - we're currently at 29 points from 30 games. 0.97points per game. Although we probably need to do better than that to stay up.

Before Saturday, Alloa had lost 7 of their last 8 games, so it would hardly be some incredible fall from grace.

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18 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

I'll re-run when I'm at work tomorrow (mainly because the spreadsheet is on my work computer), I never got round to posting this but when I plugged in 6 x 1-0 losses for Dunfermline and simmed the rest of the games they were still safe 82% of the time and that will have gone up after tonight. They're likely to be fine even if they implode. Although I hope any recovery starts after Saturday...

Alloa's next 4 matches are the 4 teams directly above them

Morton and Queens have 3 of the other 4 teams in the fight still to play

Thistle and Falkirk have just 2

This could obviously work either way with the teams at the top  if the league is settled or if teams are resting players ahead of the playoffs. You'd think it'll go to the wire.

Why haven't the new projections been posted yet? :( 19QOS19 needs to know if there's a 2% chance the Pars can be relegated.

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