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Relegation Royal Rumble


Golden Bucket and Spade Winner 2018-2019  

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2 hours ago, thistledo said:

@Fuctifano Has your spreadsheet had a meltdown or have I missed your post on the permutations following recent results? 

Was going to leave it til after Saturday, as I alluded to in my post yesterday by this stage the permutations are easier to work out manually, not much point in saying if you get 41 points you'll be safe 88% of the time when you know that a win and a QoS loss and we're safe. 

FWIW the current standings were Dunfermline safe 99% of the time, thistle 94, Morton 93, QoS 59, Alloa 50 and Falkirk 4.

The % swings are wild the closer you get to the end though, took Alloa 4 wins to get from 14% to 85% then one loss to us plus us winning last night has them down to 50%. Think we can drop as low as 45% if literally every result goes against us at the weekend. 

I will post again on Monday morning just for completeness. 

Edited by Fuctifano
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1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

Seeing as we have rescued Partick Thistle (we've got another 3 points for you on Saturday) and we'll rescue Alloa in the final game.

It must be pretty twitchy being a Morton or Queen of the South fan.

Aye you feckers are certainly playing a massive part in trying to get us down. Making Thistle safe this weekend also means you are making Queens life a lot easier on the last day as well as giving Alloa a freebe.

We need to hope DU are as accommodating if we don't beat the Pars!

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In this Royal Rumble Alloa are in danger of doing the same hello/goodbye as the Bushwhackers circa 1992 (a meme somewhere?); Falkirk an ageing and drug addled Jake the Snake clinging on to the highs of yesteryear whilst his chicken legs and beer belly hang over the top rope; Morton and QoS the solo Marty Janetty who are overshadowed by better entrants and who know it's only a matter time before they are dismissed from the league; and Thistle the diaper bummed Yokozuna who looks increasing rooted in the centre of the ring. 

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16 minutes ago, Chicken George said:

In this Royal Rumble Alloa are in danger of doing the same hello/goodbye as the Bushwhackers circa 1992 (a meme somewhere?); Falkirk an ageing and drug addled Jake the Snake clinging on to the highs of yesteryear whilst his chicken legs and beer belly hang over the top rope; Morton and QoS the solo Marty Janetty who are overshadowed by better entrants and who know it's only a matter time before they are dismissed from the league; and Thistle the diaper bummed Yokozuna who looks increasing rooted in the centre of the ring. 

Wow.

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I'd class the league thus:
Very, very average
County, DU
Poor sides who at some point in the season have won 3/4 in a row to pull away
Ayr United, ICT
Absolutely zero attacking threat in 99% of their games, and can barely defend
Dunfermline, Thistle, Morton, QOS, Alloa, Falkirk
Overall, there's absolutely no team I have seen where I have gone 'fuck me they're going to stroll this league'.  St Mirren last year were like that.  You could see they were skillful, quick, clinical and could defend.  
 
We've got an attacking threat in our side (see some of our results). Our problem is we are better at attacking than defending but our manager sets us up to be more reliant on our defence rather than our attack. I still believe if he had set us up more positively throughout the season we wouldn't be in this mess.
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Guest Ecosse83
3 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:
3 hours ago, TheScarf said:
I'd class the league thus:
Very, very average
County, DU
Poor sides who at some point in the season have won 3/4 in a row to pull away
Ayr United, ICT
Absolutely zero attacking threat in 99% of their games, and can barely defend
Dunfermline, Thistle, Morton, QOS, Alloa, Falkirk
Overall, there's absolutely no team I have seen where I have gone 'f**k me they're going to stroll this league'.  St Mirren last year were like that.  You could see they were skillful, quick, clinical and could defend.  
 

We've got an attacking threat in our side (see some of our results). Our problem is we are better at attacking than defending but our manager sets us up to be more reliant on our defence rather than our attack. I still believe if he had set us up more positively throughout the season we wouldn't be in this mess.

Will he be away at the end of the season? 

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Will he be away at the end of the season? 
If we go down I can't see him surviving. Small budget/squad or not, when you have one of the league's top scorers you really shouldn't be struggling like us.

If we stay up I really don't know what will happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay. And if he does go I really don't know who would take or want the job.
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Keeping a close eye on this Royal Rumble to see who our opponents could be ( not counting my chickens ) in the soon to be play offs.

Interesting that very few seem positive going into their last two games and everyone is giving the "we are shitier than you" pessimists view.

For those of you who haven't been following League 1, we, Montrose need one point from our last 2 games. To pip us, we have to lose both games and East Fife have to win both of theres. We've got the harder games playing both Raith and Forfar who have already wrapped up 2nd and 3rd places and will face each other in the other play off semi. With their places already guaranteed,  both might rest players with play offs in mind.

Form wise, we are the form team in the league taking 15 points from our last possible 18. East Fife were streets ahead of us but their form has been dreadful. Arbroath were the only team to beat us in our recent run.

League 1 has been very similar to the Championship. Arbroath have cruised the league and deservedly so. The rest have been very close, each being able to beat or lose to anyone on their day. 

As for our play off Hope's should we get there. I'm not sure. We have had an amazing season this year having been in league 2 for over 20 years. To be on the cusp of the championship is beyond our wildest dreams. Our aim at the start of the season was 8th place, to stay in the league. What we've achieved has been remarkable. If we were to go up, we would need to rebuild our team because, to be absolutely honest,  we are not ready for it. We would fear doing a Brechin and look where they are now.

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There is precious little chance Falkirk will feature in the play offs as it’s more likely we are autodoon. In truth, I think you would fare better against Queens. Alloa would eat you alive tbh, whereas Queens would be an absolute bag of nerves, and capable of imploding.

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We played QOS in one of the cups early in the season. They beat us in a replay after drawing at home. I'm sure they were in better spirits then though.

We played United in the Scottish Cup and got mauled 4-0 at home. I think this was the match that made us realise that we are nowhere near ready for another step up. 

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Montrose going up would be pretty much the equivalent  of Ayr United going up - a dream come true for many even though nobody thinks we are remotely equipped for the Premiership. Our task is arguably harder given the six extra games needed.

Assuming we are still here next year, I would love it if you guys made it through.  Obviously it would be in Ayr's interest for two full time teams to go down and two part timers to come up, but that aside I've yet to have a trip to Montrose whereas anybody else would be (all too) familiar territory.  If you face either Queens or Morton in the play-off semi-finals I would give you a half decent chance. Best of luck anyway!

Edited by Yid_in_Exiile
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56 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

If we go down I can't see him surviving. Small budget/squad or not, when you have one of the league's top scorers you really shouldn't be struggling like us.

If we stay up I really don't know what will happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay. And if he does go I really don't know who would take or want the job.

Teams in a far worse position than Queen of the South have dozens and dozens of applications every time they need a manager. You'd probably be surprised by the calibre of candidates who sent in their CV.

Or do you have a famous player that's already on the pay roll? I've heard that's an easy option.

29 minutes ago, PortyMo said:

Keeping a close eye on this Royal Rumble to see who our opponents could be ( not counting my chickens ) in the soon to be play offs.

Interesting that very few seem positive going into their last two games and everyone is giving the "we are shitier than you" pessimists view.

For those of you who haven't been following League 1, we, Montrose need one point from our last 2 games. To pip us, we have to lose both games and East Fife have to win both of theres. We've got the harder games playing both Raith and Forfar who have already wrapped up 2nd and 3rd places and will face each other in the other play off semi. With their places already guaranteed,  both might rest players with play offs in mind.

Form wise, we are the form team in the league taking 15 points from our last possible 18. East Fife were streets ahead of us but their form has been dreadful. Arbroath were the only team to beat us in our recent run.

League 1 has been very similar to the Championship. Arbroath have cruised the league and deservedly so. The rest have been very close, each being able to beat or lose to anyone on their day. 

As for our play off Hope's should we get there. I'm not sure. We have had an amazing season this year having been in league 2 for over 20 years. To be on the cusp of the championship is beyond our wildest dreams. Our aim at the start of the season was 8th place, to stay in the league. What we've achieved has been remarkable. If we were to go up, we would need to rebuild our team because, to be absolutely honest,  we are not ready for it. We would fear doing a Brechin and look where they are now.

Arbroath vs Montrose in the Championship would be very surreal. Would love to see Petrie do the business though.

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Arbroath vs Montrose in the Championship would be very surreal. Would love to see Petrie do the business though.
I imagine Dobbie will take charge at some point for sure. He's doing his badges as far as I'm aware but I have no idea how far on he is. Naysmith himself said in an interview that he has already said to Dobbie he's just keeping the seat warm for him [emoji38]

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20 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

 Would love to see Petrie do the business though.

Too many teams have their eye on Petrie. What he has done for us is nothing short of remarkable. 
Unfortunately for us, it can't be long until a bigger team takes a punt on him.

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Apparently Ian McCall said on Sportsound on Monday Shankland will play one more league game before the playoffs to give him match time, preferably against Thistle on Saturday.

I'm not sure Thistle have too much to fear from an Ayr United team even featuring Shankland, given recent form, but it cannot be an advantage for them over Alloa, against  whom he will  presumably be rested again. 

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44 minutes ago, PortyMo said:

Too many teams have their eye on Petrie. What he has done for us is nothing short of remarkable. 
Unfortunately for us, it can't be long until a bigger team takes a punt on him.

Bring him home

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