Relegation Royal Rumble

[Bairnardo]

I think we all would like the football club to succeed as a self sustaining entity tbh. Having a sugar daddy ranks well below that and I dont see how anyone could disagree.

[Reggie Perrin]

This midweek's edition of "no fun with stats" 
Usual caveats: it's an emotionless model which doesn't see, for example, Falkirk playing 2 teams with nothing really to play for, it just sees the 2nd lowest rated team in the league (fraction ahead of Alloa) playing the 2nd highest away and highest at home so isn't very big on Falkirk getting much from those games. 
Also goal difference swings of more than 1 per game are impossible for this when running simulations, I can obviously manually override these for specific results for "what-if" analysis as below, but that's why the winners and top 4 are showing as 100%. 
Of course by this stage you can of course work out most of the scenarios in your head, I'm still looking at the table thinking we could get to 43 points but QoS, Alloa, Dunfermline and Morton could all get to 44 or more. Didn't happen once in 1000 goes though. 
Few scenario based things: 
Thistle fall to roughly 58% safe with a loss tonight but roughly 93% with a win. Draw maintains the status quo. 
For the Pars fans looking out the Samaritans number, I manually put that you lost your last 2 games 6-0 to knacker your GD advantage over the other teams and simmed every other game. Still came out as safe 90.8%, playoff 8.6% and down 0.6%. Goal difference should see you OK unless the above happens, but it's a miniscule possibility
At the other end of the scale 2 wins for Falkirk puts them safe 93%, playoff 6.6% and down 0.4% so where there's life there's hope... 

Precious few signs of life last Saturday.

[TheScarf]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I think we all would like the football club to succeed as a self sustaining entity tbh. Having a sugar daddy ranks well below that and I dont see how anyone could disagree.

Indeed.  Self-sustaining success is to be lauded.  Sugar daddy success isn't.

[printer]

We, of course, lost and were subsequently dry humped in the play-off final by Alloa.

FTFY

[bunglebonce]

41 minutes ago, thistledo said:

Invests is an interesting way to describe it. Very much doubt there is any profit from the amount of signings County have made over the years.

I regularly invest in Wimpy.  The dopamine surge from a bender in a bun and a large strawberry milkshake is all the profit I want.

[PauloPerth]

20 hours ago, DAFC. said:

Ditto.

I'm fucking bricking it. Falkirk are gone, but finishing 9th is a real possibility for us, which is absolutely pathetic. It would be just typical of us to actually do that, get Raith in the play-offs, and bottle it at Starks Park (again).

As POTM touched on earlier in the thread, a total clear-out, management included, is needed in the summer, should results go our way and we manage to finish 8th or higher. Crawford has done worse than AJ, regardless of that 5 match winning streak. We were utterly humiliated away to a diabolical Raith side in the Scottish Cup, routinely outplayed and beat by quite possibly the worst Falkirk side of all time, and the football that's been on display has been some of the worst I've witnessed in my lifetime supporting the Pars. There doesn't seem to be any cohesion between the players and the job they've to do. Just seems that the only plan us to lump long balls up to Anderson and hope for the best, while also hoping the three worst centre-backs of all time don't gift the opposition chances to score. 

A total farce and I'll be fucking raging if Crawford is kept on for next season. With the exception of Joe Thomson, everyone of those players can get themselves so far to fcuk away from EEP that we hopefully never hear from them again. 

PISH!

 

 

18 hours ago, DAFC. said:

You do realise what football club you're on about here? The same one that was winning 3-1 against Partick back in 2013, ended up drawing 3-3, conceding 2 injury time goals, to then only need to beat an already relegated Airdrie side, lose 2-1, resulting in us being banged in to the relegation play-offs and then lose heavily to a part-time Alloa Athletic. Doon. We have history of this kind of shit and I'll not be content until it's mathematically impossible for it to happen. 

I think a point is enough for us, but our record in Inverness is fucking abysmal, to say the least, so probably best chance is against your lot, but I really can't see it. The players have chucked it and are thinking ahead to their holidays and stoating about places like Santa Ponsa with their Gucci man bags trying to get fired into 16 year old lassies. Would honestly KO every single one of the useless fuckers. 

 

Magnificent stuff.

Bravo!!

 

[LargsTON]

4 hours ago, I'm Brian said:

Sevco managed to escape the championship a couple of seasons ago m8. 

 

 

You amateur goaders amount to nothing compared to the time we got some Section B gadgie on video, complaining to the police that we were on their pitch in 2009

After much ridicule he eventually took it down. If anyone still has a copy of it seeing it again after 10 years would be tremendous

I remember that 

[Poet of the Macabre]

38 minutes ago, printer said:

 

 

FTFY

 

That 1st leg btw. Utterly ridden senseless.

We won the 2nd leg but Alloa had declared long before. Back when Hartley looked to have a bright future in management.

[yoda]

There's the actual definition of "self-sustaining" and then there's the ICT definition of "self-sustaining" 

[baw heid]

2 hours ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

They also have fairly rubbish squads. Just saying.

One has the other two are just small with the part timers causing havoc, on plastic

[TheScarf]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

There's the actual definition of "self-sustaining" and then there's the ICT definition of "self-sustaining" 

Outperforming clubs with more money?  You're right m2.

[falkirkthebigclub]

4 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

In that run through, working out the results for that to happen based on final table, the table going into the last day would be :

QoS 41

Thistle 41

Alloa 41

Morton 40 

Falkirk 38

Brown trousers all round that day. 

No brown trousers here. I'd wash my face in Theresa May's sink for that scenario.

[SueSue]

On 4/22/2019 at 14:53, Tarmo Kink said:

Think it will be Falkirk down with Queens in the play-off.

Morton have only lost 1 in their last 5, the type of form that will see them definitely get another point at the very least, which will do it for them.

Alloa will 100% take something from our ‘injury-ravaged, nothing to play for’ side and I think they’ll probably do the same to Ayr. That should do it for them.

I think Partick will be okay although I’m not certain. Depends what happens in the Ayr games which I’m not sure how to look at. Their form isn’t actually THAT bad though, so I’d expect them to pick up a win in their remaining three games at least.

Let’s see if your prediction is correct.

Or I will be back to dig you out.... as you kindly did to me.

Although it’s a lot easier to be a smart arse with only two games left to predict dont you think.

[19QOS19]

Thistle favourites to beat Ayr tonight with the bookies. They ken the score

[Poet of the Macabre]

We've scored the least number of goals in the league but only Ayr and Ross County have conceded fewer.

EEP for thrills.

[ayrmad]

13 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

Thistle favourites to beat Ayr tonight with the bookies. They ken the score

I'd rather bet Ayr at the new prices.

[SueSue]

40 minutes ago, Tarmo Kink said:

 

Still time for Falkirk to finish 4th m9

 

 

Hope you are correct or you are going to get slaughtered...... 

 

[printer]

That 1st leg btw. Utterly ridden senseless.
We won the 2nd leg but Alloa had declared long before. Back when Hartley looked to have a bright future in management.

That first leg was the peak for Hartley's Alloa side.

[Paisley Ton]

1 hour ago, Tarmo Kink said:

 

Still time for Falkirk to finish 4th m9

 

Drink talking. Fawkirk are dead if Partick hold on.

[Paisley Ton]

2 minutes ago, Tarmo Kink said:

 

You sure?

A few months back SueSue told me they were flying and they’d get 4th

 

On cockain me thinks

Edited April 23, 2019 by Paisley Ton