Relegation Royal Rumble

[Reid]

McCall may well love the Jags, but short of him telling his team to actively not score goals (unlikely) or playing an under 15s team (also unlikely), I’m not sure how much he’d be able to help us out. A weakened, half-arsed Ayr lineup will still score against our rabble of a defence.

McCall may want to beat us and relegate us tbh. It would mean Caldwell getting sacked and give him chance of returning to his main love.

[Fuctifano]

3 hours ago, bunglebonce said:

I can’t wrap my head fully around how Fuctifano’s spreadsheets work, but they’re always a highlight of the end of season for me.

Cheers. Been harder this season to do as normally I just plug in the ratings from clubelo.com and start simulating from there but obviously they don't go below the Scottish top tier. So I had to assign teams ratings at the start of the season and manually enter the result of every game until February. 

I've not focused as much this season on where the model predicts each team will finish for a few reasons... It can't factor in human things like injuries, morale and motivation, so I don't use it for betting, and the % swings are huge at this time of year. Alloa have gone from relegated automatically 67% of the time to about 12% of the time in the space of 10 days off the back of their 3 wins. 

Edit - with those disclaimers in mind here's how it pans out. Morton have a lower team rating than QoS and 3 teams above them still to play vs 2 for QoS which accounts for QoS being rated as safer. 

Edited April 10, 2019 by Fuctifano

[whereismillar]

3 hours ago, Colkitto said:

Very good chance of that happening. He has a Jack Ross feel about him...

Jim does not have the signing nous jack ross had/has,

the players jack brought in to Alloa /St mirren were great signings, jim still has to improve this side of his managerialship talents .

 

[Bairn Necessities]

2 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

 

Yes, a particular match that you clearly can't even remember properly, clearly proves that any contrary suggestion in different circumstances must always be rubbish forever.

That's right. It does. There is no situation anywhere where having to win rather than draw is a good thing .

[MrDust]

7 hours ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier said:

I'm sure that by the time we come to play Ayr twice within a week,they will be safe in 3rd or 4th for play offs and wee McCall will gift the 6 points to his beloved Thistle and almost certainly keep us up.

Id guess at least 3pts will come from the back to back games and I fancy you to do Alloa which will see you safe-ish

[Monkey Tennis]

3 hours ago, Marshmallo said:

You're posting that you would rather have a lower points total than a higher points total. That "must always be rubbish forever".

Not necessarily.

I've not once mentioned our points total in absolute terms; I've only considered it in relation to Partick Thistle's.  If an improved picture relative to Thistle, meant that other sides were in the last day equation, I would obviously prefer that to be the case.

If it was solely about our game however, I would prefer that we needed to win, because if a draw was going to be enough, I fear that we'd play for one, thus making defeat likelier.

My view somehow apparently manages to be both cliched and outlandish.

[Coventry Saint]

"We can actually go live to the Championship relegation scrap now..."

Not pictured: Alloa.

[Reggie Perrin]

2 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

Cheers. Been harder this season to do as normally I just plug in the ratings from clubelo.com and start simulating from there but obviously they don't go below the Scottish top tier. So I had to assign teams ratings at the start of the season and manually enter the result of every game until February. 

I've not focused as much this season on where the model predicts each team will finish for a few reasons... It can't factor in human things like injuries, morale and motivation, so I don't use it for betting, and the % swings are huge at this time of year. Alloa have gone from relegated automatically 67% of the time to about 12% of the time in the space of 10 days off the back of their 3 wins. 

Edit - with those disclaimers in mind here's how it pans out. Morton have a lower team rating than QoS and 3 teams above them still to play vs 2 for QoS which accounts for QoS being rated as safer. 

You choose to do this in your own time?

[Pie Of The Month]

17 minutes ago, Reggie Perrin said:

You choose to do this in your own time?

He's been pretty clear throughout the thread that he does it during work time. 

[baw heid]

6 hours ago, Colkitto said:

I don't see Alloa being bottom of the league either. They are so well organised and motivated just now.

Any Championship manager who doesn't make the cut for next season  could lose their job to Goodwin. He must be surely worth a punt for any full-time club?

Alloa are certainly a decent team although like a lot of their fans I wonder why the pitch has been shrunk.  Hope Queens manage to stay up

[The Minertaur]

"f**k knows which platform for Seaside League"

[bridge of allan bairn]

the table makes pretty stark reading with 4 games to go we are rock bottom effectively 3 points adrift (thistle game in hand). at this very late stage I'd much rather have points on the board than ifs and buts about who we still have to play. we have one of the harder run ins however given were not winning games form is also an issue. draws useless for us now. if we lose Saturday and other results go against us could be almost impossible to recover. hopefully we go all guns blazing with mckinnon leash off Saturday against a not much to play for pars. if we win pendulum could just swing again.

[Poet of the Macabre]

1 hour ago, Reggie Perrin said:

You choose to do this in your own time?

Always great when people who regularly post on an online football forum try to criticise others for how they spend their time.

Fuctifano is doing a great job and hope he keeps on doing it.

[TheScarf]

It's a great table IMO.

[pandarilla]

the table makes pretty stark reading with 4 games to go we are rock bottom effectively 3 points adrift (thistle game in hand). at this very late stage I'd much rather have points on the board than ifs and buts about who we still have to play. we have one of the harder run ins however given were not winning games form is also an issue. draws useless for us now. if we lose Saturday and other results go against us could be almost impossible to recover. hopefully we go all guns blazing with mckinnon leash off Saturday against a not much to play for pars. if we win pendulum could just swing again.

Difficulty of run in is almost impossible to judge in this league at the moment.

 

Form is rattling about from game to game, and it's just so unpredictable (here speaks a man with plenty of failed coupons to show for it).

 

Alloa going and beating county, on the same day as QoS went and won at tannadice pretty much summed up the season.

 

[Guest]

the table makes pretty stark reading with 4 games to go we are rock bottom effectively 3 points adrift (thistle game in hand). at this very late stage I'd much rather have points on the board than ifs and buts about who we still have to play. we have one of the harder run ins however given were not winning games form is also an issue. draws useless for us now. if we lose Saturday and other results go against us could be almost impossible to recover. hopefully we go all guns blazing with mckinnon leash off Saturday against a not much to play for pars. if we win pendulum could just swing again.

How are we effectively 3 adrift? Partick are away to Ayr in that game and have to go to RC and QOS

Some nonsense getting talked

Reality is we have things in our own hands still. Win Saturday and the tone of this thread changes

[bridge of allan bairn]

How are we effectively 3 adrift? Partick are away to Ayr in that game and have to go to RC and QOS

Some nonsense getting talked

Reality is we have things in our own hands still. Win Saturday and the tone of this thread changes

as I said in my final sentence

[ayrmad]

2 hours ago, Coventry Saint said:

"We can actually go live to the Championship relegation scrap now..."

Not pictured: Alloa.

That's Alloa they're trying to climb over.

[DA Baracus]

2 hours ago, baw heid said:

Alloa are certainly a decent team although like a lot of their fans I wonder why the pitch has been shrunk.  Hope Queens manage to stay up

Really? It's very obvious why they do it. They've been pretty open about it as well. It's not like it's some sort of mad mystery, and I doubt any Alloa fans don't know why they do it.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, DA Baracus said:

Really? It's very obvious why they do it. They've been pretty open about it as well. It's not like it's some sort of mad mystery, and I doubt any Alloa fans don't know why they do it.

It's a mystery to those that think it's hindrance rather than a help.