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A 2nd EU referendum


Adamski

A 2nd EU referendum  

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1 hour ago, Kyle said:

The Lib Dems have Lib Dem'd it - put in an amendment o the withdrawal bill for a people's vote, which probably wont get support from enough Labour MPs and could kill the idea stone dead. 

Honestly, why wont the Lib Dems just f**k off?

Unless you live near your polling station, that seems a tremendous waste of time. Would you not be as well just no showing?

Spoiled ballot paper voters last time out were scoundrels.  This time they'd be something worse.

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5 hours ago, Savage Henry said:

Not even the staunchest Tory-voting, Rangers fan wants a no deal.

Trope-tastic idiocy from you, young Henry.  As a staunch, Tory-voting Rangers fan I hold no truck with either the brexiteers or their fellow cheek - the empty-headed Yessers.  One United Kingdom as an integral part of the European Union .  As for brexiteers and Scottish factionalists?  A plague on both their houses!

4 hours ago, Kyle said:

If I was  Brexiteer I'd be advocating a no deal over the half baked pish May has come back with. I don't agree with them but I can see why they think this deal is a 'betrayal'. 

Then you'd be a myopic idiot.  But then those who voted for Brexit are.

3 hours ago, HTG said:

"No deal is better than a bad deal" is vacuous pish

It is.  Said by the sort of people who are barely-literate fuckwits.  There are times when I despise people and this is one.

3 hours ago, Suspect Device said:

This does show how unrepresentative of the general population the P&B politics section is and why it can seem like an echo chamber in here sometimes.

Even in Scotland, the leave vote was about 40%. If you don't actually have a conversation with the 40% and simply call them morons for daring to have a different opinion to you then you shut down the debate and convince yourself that remain has a larger support than is the reality.

I voted leave last time because I would ultimately prefer an independent Scotland outside of the EU with it's own currency but with a large degree of freedom of movement. Much like Norway.

I would probably vote remain next time because I simply don't see my preference being an option on the table. 

This is my worst nightmare.  There is just no sensible option for, "an independent Scotland outside of the EU with it's own currency "

Edit:  I would be willing to vote for an independent Scotland as a part of the EU if/when we do leave.

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6 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Trope-tastic idiocy from you, young Henry.  As a staunch, Tory-voting Rangers fan I hold no truck with either the brexiteers or their fellow cheek - the empty-headed Yessers.  One United Kingdom as an integral part of the European Union .  As for brexiteers and Scottish factionalists?  A plague on both their houses!

Then you'd be a myopic idiot.  But then those who voted for Brexit are.

It is.  Said by the sort of people who are barely-literate fuckwits.  There are times when I despise people and this is one.

This is my worst nightmare.  There is just no sensible option for, "an independent Scotland outside of the EU with it's own currency "

Which is kind of the point. If you vote for brexit or Scottish Independence then you want a break, you don't want to follow a lot of the same rules from the same union but without any say. That's what May's deal offers. I personally agree it's better than no deal but if you put yourself in the shoes of the people that did vote leave, then you can understand why they see it as a disaster.

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This is my worst nightmare.  There is just no sensible option for, "an independent Scotland outside of the EU with it's own currency "
Edit:  I would be willing to vote for an independent Scotland as a part of the EU if/when we do leave.
You wouldn't vote for independence under any circumstances you pish stained alky and you wouldn't be allowed to anyway.
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Which is kind of the point. If you vote for brexit or Scottish Independence then you want a break, you don't want to follow a lot of the same rules from the same union but without any say. That's what May's deal offers. I personally agree it's better than no deal but if you put yourself in the shoes of the people that did vote leave, then you can understand why they see it as a disaster.
A no deal Brexit will undoubtedly lead to some short term difficulties - but no-one really knows how long this will last.

Folk predicted that the markets would absolutely bomb on the day of a leave result, and that simply didn't happen.

The project fear stuff wasn't just an issue in the Scottish referendum.
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2 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

A no deal Brexit will undoubtedly lead to some short term difficulties - but no-one really knows how long this will last.

Folk predicted that the markets would absolutely bomb on the day of a leave result, and that simply didn't happen.

The project fear stuff wasn't just an issue in the Scottish referendum.

The Ebola virus?  Just take a couple of aspirin and put your feet up.

 

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6 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

A no deal Brexit will undoubtedly lead to some short term difficulties - but no-one really knows how long this will last.

Folk predicted that the markets would absolutely bomb on the day of a leave result, and that simply didn't happen.

The project fear stuff wasn't just an issue in the Scottish referendum.

That is like Captain Smith of Titanic saying "we are not going to hit an iceberg today because we didn't hit one yesterday."

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8 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

A no deal Brexit will undoubtedly lead to some short term difficulties - but no-one really knows how long this will last.

Folk predicted that the markets would absolutely bomb on the day of a leave result, and that simply didn't happen.

The project fear stuff wasn't just an issue in the Scottish referendum.

Well the pound dropped 20% and inward investment is way down, and we haven't even left yet.

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5 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

It is completely unchartered territory gd. You have no idea how bad it will be.
 

There are sufficient number of people from all parts of the Brexit spectrum who have a far greater understanding of economics, trade and logistics than I do who are saying it would be very bad.  I chose to believe them.

Of course there are folk, like the Trump supporters, who think we should shun expert opinion.

 

 

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Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/30/opinion/brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish.html

Highlights that the BoE predictions assume that border/port issues will stay at the same crisis level for five years which is extremely unlikely.

The BoE estimates also project interest rates rising to 5% which would never happen but obviously had to be modelled in to get the worst outcome.

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51 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:
1 hour ago, The_Kincardine said:
This is my worst nightmare.  There is just no sensible option for, "an independent Scotland outside of the EU with it's own currency "
Edit:  I would be willing to vote for an independent Scotland as a part of the EU if/when we do leave.

You wouldn't vote for independence under any circumstances you pish stained alky and you wouldn't be allowed to anyway.

"Welcome to caring, inclusive Scotland, ya bass"!

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Paul Krugman
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/30/opinion/brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish.html
Highlights that the BoE predictions assume that border/port issues will stay at the same crisis level for five years which is extremely unlikely.
The BoE estimates also project interest rates rising to 5% which would never happen but obviously had to be modelled in to get the worst outcome.
An interesting article.

My point, is one of unintended consequences. "Events, dear boy", as Churchill once put it...

A no deal Brexit would be a massive event, and there's no doubt there would be huge disruption for months (at least). But it's almost impossible to predict how things would play out (Krugman points out the inexact science that economists rely on).

The EU itself could crumble (unlikely, but not out of the question). Let's not pretend that they'll not be harmed by this, and plenty of other EU countries have anti EU sentiment.
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16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/30/opinion/brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish.html

Highlights that the BoE predictions assume that border/port issues will stay at the same crisis level for five years which is extremely unlikely.

The BoE estimates also project interest rates rising to 5% which would never happen but obviously had to be modelled in to get the worst outcome.

Whenever the Bank of England is asked to model outcomes they give a range from best case through intermediate points to worst case. All but the worst case are ignored by Parliament and the media, so they end up looking hysterical. A worst case scenario where interest rates rise to 5% really isn't that improbable looking at historical rates and the fact we're looking into uncharted territory.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

 A worst case scenario where interest rates rise to 5% really isn't that improbable looking at historical rates.

The bank (as we have seen for 10 years now) won't raise rates when demand is low and the economy is in the shitter.

Historical rates mean nothing. The huge increase in household debt levels means we can never go back to 90s or earlier level interest rates. Household debt has risen by 400% in 25 years. It's also the case that post ERM there is no need to raise interest rates to control inflation, the pound will correct itself as it did in 2010 and 2016.

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