forameus Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Gnash said: Anything less than a win in the very first game of 10, and we have no chance of qualifying directly? While it's obviously not mathematically true, we have direct experience of screwing up those first games, and it throws the rest into doubt. If we can't beat Kazakhstan, I wouldn't put too much faith in us beating anyone outside of San Marino. I remember being wonderfully hopeful going to Hampden for a rare Saturday afternoon kick-off against Serbia, and watched us draw 0-0. Granted that was the campaign we shat the bed on completely, and that wasn't solely down to game 1, but it always bears saying. With the temporary boost that the Nations League has given us, after being so down in all areas after that defeat in Haifa, it's absolutely imperative that we get two positive results in those two games. Drop that, and it's going to be a massively uphill task that most fans won't be arsed with. There will inevitably be the attitude that there's no point in turning up again until the following March and our eventual playoff. EDIT: Actually to add, given that head-to-head is used as the main tie-breaker, any potential slip-up to a low seed becomes much worse if your direct rival doesn't. Say Kazakhstan beat us, and Russia beat them in the corresponding fixture. We then need to beat them home and away to pass them, assuming all other results go to plan. If we win all of our lower seeded matches, it leaves us in the position where we can maybe accept a draw away from home and still end up ahead of them. Goal difference systems don't really have that extra drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'd go 4-6-0 in Kazakhstan and San Marino. Try to grab a couple of vital away draws and kick on from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Gnash said: Anything less than a win in the very first game of 10, and we have no chance of qualifying directly? Yes - feel free to bookmark. Similarly in the World Cup 18 qualifying, we were done after match-day 2 when we could only draw with Lithuania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: First thoughts are that they couldn't have hand picked a better draw. Start with 9 points and end with 9 points. Goals fests against San Marino and Kazakhstan could bump the goal difference at the tail end of the campaign. Of course, if McLeish contrives to lose the first game, the whole campaign is accordingly fucked. The only issue is missing out on playing Belgium after they qualify. Russia get them at home in the 2nd last game where they could sneak a vital point. Other than that the fixtures are perfect IMO. I remember watching the Belgium WC quali game against B&H just after Belgium had qualified. They left a couple of 50/50 players out as they didn't need to take the chance. Fellaini was passed fit but got injured early on in the pouring rain and missed a few weeks for Man U. Jose was not happy. I doubt they do that again. As someone else said, 20-22 points tends to be needed (most of the time) in a 6 team group if you want to finish in the top 2. Win the first three, win the last three and we've got 18 points with 4 games against Belgium and Russia to get the 2pts+ that'll probably be required. If we drop points against Cyprus or Kazakhstan then we'll be needing 4pts+ from the Belgium/Russia game to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanMc99 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 easier than our usual draws to be fair, take maximum points against kazakhs, cypriots and san marino and hopefully something off russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blootoon87 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Does anyone really think we'll beat Kazakhstan away?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanMc99 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said: Does anyone really think we'll beat Kazakhstan away?! it's this fixture that worries me most, looked at thei rrecent results , really poor but we can still f**k this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanky_ffc Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Watched Cyprus in a couple of their recent Nations League matches and they're absolute gubbins, especially away from home. Norway (who I'd put in a similar bracket to ourselves) strolled both games without conceding and we should be aiming for the same. Not buying the Kazakhstan fear either. They're rated as 126th in the Elo ratings, won once against Latvia and Andorra and lost both games to our old foes Georgia. These trips to Eastern Europe have been banana skins in the past, but they're a gang. 18 points has got to be the aim from the 3 sides below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gnash Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 50 minutes ago, Consolidate said: Yes - feel free to bookmark. Similarly in the World Cup 18 qualifying, we were done after match-day 2 when we could only draw with Lithuania. Bookmarking isn't necessary because I can tell you now that's not correct. If we don't win against Kazakhstan in the first game, we do still have a chance. Granted, it makes qualifying directly more difficult, but far from impossible. Even if it does pan out that way (ie we fail to beat Kazakhstan and then don't qualify from this group), it still doesn't mean we had no chance after the first game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanky_ffc Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 37 minutes ago, charger29 said: The only issue is missing out on playing Belgium after they qualify. Russia get them at home in the 2nd last game where they could sneak a vital point. Other than that the fixtures are perfect IMO. I remember watching the Belgium WC quali game against B&H just after Belgium had qualified. They left a couple of 50/50 players out as they didn't need to take the chance. Fellaini was passed fit but got injured early on in the pouring rain and missed a few weeks for Man U. Jose was not happy. I doubt they do that again. I don't see that being an issue. Belgium still played close to their strongest team in the Bosnia and Cyprus matches after they'd sealed qualifying and such is their depth, I'd fancy them to beat Russia even with a handful of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gnash Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 16 hours ago, Gnash said: Average temperature in Astana in March: -7.1C. Just checked and the Astana Arena has a roof, so presumably the frigid temperatures won't be issue, in the stadium at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diamonds are Forever Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Playing Belgium in June is ideal. That fixture date can be a banana skin because your entire squad likely haven't played for a month and have switched off at the end of the season. It's a no-lose for us, if our players have their minds on holiday and we lose we we would have lost anyway. Plus there's a possibility that some of the Belgium players may not be as fully focused or fit as they would be in a September/October fixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Blootoon87 said: Does anyone really think we'll beat Kazakhstan away?! Yes. Have a look at their squad and tell me why you think we shouldn't be beating them. "Aye but Scotland always f**k it up" isn't a valid reason for us not to believe we can beat them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesM82 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Blootoon87 said: Does anyone really think we'll beat Kazakhstan away?! We will struggle there, at least. Celtic have played a few of their teams in recent years, always gone through the ties (I think?) but have struggled in the away legs. I also don't like it being on the Thursday. Presumably some of our players will be playing on the previous Sunday (e.g. Celtic are away to Dundee the previous weekend, which will probably get moved for TV) so they won't get together until the Monday. Then knowing how McLeish has "prepared" them for previous games we won't travel until the Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blootoon87 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yes. Have a look at their squad and tell me why you think we shouldn't be beating them. "Aye but Scotland always f**k it up" isn't a valid reason for us not to believe we can beat them.It is, it really is. I'll be amazed if we win over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, JamesM82 said: We will struggle there, at least. Celtic have played a few of their teams in recent years, always gone through the ties (I think?) but have struggled in the away legs. I'm not really sure what relevance Celtic playing a team where the majority of the starting XI aren't even from Kazakhstan, in the middle of their summer when Celtic are still in the middle of their pre-season has to whether Scotland can beat Kazakhstan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said: It is, it really is. I'll be amazed if we win over there. They're team is filled with players playing in Kazakhstan. Unless we think that the Kazakhstan top flight is on a par with the Scottish/English Premiership/English Championship then, aye, it's fairly easy to think we'll win this one. And it's Kazakhstan we're playing in, not Mordor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesM82 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Pie Of The Month said: I'm not really sure what relevance Celtic playing a team where the majority of the starting XI aren't even from Kazakhstan, in the middle of their summer when Celtic are still in the middle of their pre-season has to whether Scotland can beat Kazakhstan. A big chunk of our team is usually Celtic players . Their last tie with a Kazakh team was a CL play-off with Astana last season (won 5-0 at home, lost 3-4 away), which was well into August, i.e. after a couple of league games had been played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JamesM82 said: A big chunk of our team is usually Celtic players . Their last tie with a Kazakh team was a CL play-off with Astana last season (won 5-0 at home, lost 3-4 away), which was well into August, i.e. after a couple of league games had been played. A big chunk of Astana's team aren't Kazakh, Celtic were 5-0 up from the 1st leg, it was in the middle of the summer in Astana, Celtic had played 2 league games so far compared with Astana's couple of dozen. Other than that it's an entirely comparable situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Consolidate said: Yes - feel free to bookmark. Similarly in the World Cup 18 qualifying, we were done after match-day 2 when we could only draw with Lithuania. We were so "done" that we led 1-0 at half-time in the final game and were 45 minutes away from the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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