Could Brexit Actually Be Stopped?

[Ad Lib]

For those who are interested this is a good article on the plain logistical obstacles there would be to having a second referendum before exit day.

https://constitution-unit.com/2018/08/09/is-a-second-referendum-on-brexit-possible-seven-questions-that-need-to-be-answered/

This leaves to one side the legal question of (unilateral) revocability of an Article 50 notification, which the government says it will never ask for/seek to do and which the official opposition doesn’t support either.

I think a no deal Brexit is far more likely than even a formal Article 50 extension (which needs unanimity).

Tbh I think in the last 2 months the swing has gone from a deal of some description being the most likely outcome to no deal being it. I think a deal is still more likely than a formal delay to Brexit or a cancellation though.

[Ad Lib]

15 hours ago, Cerberus said:

Probably once they realise that most of their rights came from the EU and that they weren't British law.
Wait till workers find out their maternity leave is 3 weeks, there's only 10 days paid holidays.

 

This would only happen if the UK Parliament subsequently passed new laws reducing maternity rights. These EU laws are being effectively “copied” onto the UK statute book under the EU (Withdrawal) Act.

[zidane's child]

37 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

This would only happen if the UK Parliament subsequently passed new laws reducing maternity rights. These EU laws are being effectively “copied” onto the UK statute book under the EU (Withdrawal) Act.

But will be easier to change under the UK parliament in years to come...

[Granny Danger]

45 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

For those who are interested this is a good article on the plain logistical obstacles there would be to having a second referendum before exit day.

https://constitution-unit.com/2018/08/09/is-a-second-referendum-on-brexit-possible-seven-questions-that-need-to-be-answered/

This leaves to one side the legal question of (unilateral) revocability of an Article 50 notification, which the government says it will never ask for/seek to do and which the official opposition doesn’t support either.

I think a no deal Brexit is far more likely than even a formal Article 50 extension (which needs unanimity).

Tbh I think in the last 2 months the swing has gone from a deal of some description being the most likely outcome to no deal being it. I think a deal is still more likely than a formal delay to Brexit or a cancellation though.

We are all guessing here but logistics aside I think there will be less appetite for a No Deal Brexit the closer we get to it.  

Any sort of deal based on May’s Chequers proposal is dead in the water which then leaves limited options.

This will probably lead to the biggest constitutional shambles that will have happened in the time I have taken an interest in politics.

 

[williemillersmoustache]

There are 3 possible outcomes:

1. We leave by automatic operation of law in March
2. A50 is revoked
3. A50 is extended

2 seems unlikely and 3 would need the blessing of the EU which they are only likely to grant for the completion of a democratic process like a GE or 2nd ref. And not for example because the deal is shit and the UK want to play for yet more time.

May is  a heartless shadow of a human being but, she's not an idiot. if there's a way to stay in power until March and launch the UK into the Abyss regardless of a deal or not, she'll do it.  And the various cowards and b*****ds in her party will hold off until it's too late.

No deal is the most likely option IMO and it will probably involve a GE at some stage, probably after we've left, the b*****ds. 

[Granny Danger]

32 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

There are 3 possible outcomes:

1. We leave by automatic operation of law in March
2. A50 is revoked
3. A50 is extended

2 seems unlikely and 3 would need the blessing of the EU which they are only likely to grant for the completion of a democratic process like a GE or 2nd ref. And not for example because the deal is shit and the UK want to play for yet more time.

May is  a heartless shadow of a human being but, she's not an idiot. if there's a way to stay in power until March and launch the UK into the Abyss regardless of a deal or not, she'll do it.  And the various cowards and b*****ds in her party will hold off until it's too late.

No deal is the most likely option IMO and it will probably involve a GE at some stage, probably after we've left, the b*****ds. 

I agree that this is the EU's stated position, but I reckon if push comes to shove it is something they would be willing to offer a limited compromise on.

There is no way the EU will do anything that jeapordises the four freedoms that underpin its rationale, but I'm sure they would prefer the UK not to leave, or at least leave with an EEA agreement, and so will be a bit more liberal on some sort of extension.

 

 

[philyerboots]

in keeping with the current trend on here.

 

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I agree that this is the EU's stated position, but I reckon if push comes to shove it is something they would be willing to offer a limited compromise on.

There is no way the EU will do anything that jeapordises the four freedoms that underpin its rationale, but I'm sure they would prefer the UK not to leave, or at least leave with an EEA agreement, and so will be a bit more liberal on some sort of extension.

 

 

The EEA includes the four freedoms so it is never going to pass parliament.

 

[williemillersmoustache]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

I agree that this is the EU's stated position, but I reckon if push comes to shove it is something they would be willing to offer a limited compromise on.

There is no way the EU will do anything that jeapordises the four freedoms that underpin its rationale, but I'm sure they would prefer the UK not to leave, or at least leave with an EEA agreement, and so will be a bit more liberal on some sort of extension.

Time. Time is the issue. The EU needs to get on. budgets, elections and only one objection out of 27, and it's "f**k you Perfidious Albion Brexit means Brexit."

Unless there is a realistic prospect of a change in UKGov and approach/desired outcome there's no chance of an extension of A50. That's the whole point of A50's countdown, to prevent never-ending negotiations and leveraging time as a bargaining tool.

The worst moment happened in March when the tone of the EU shifted to acceptance that the UK had lost its fucking mind and weren't interested in engaging with the process and was still, after all this fucking time arguing with itself. 

It is, and we are, fucked (if we stay attached to these Empire fantasists)

[Granny Danger]

8 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Time. Time is the issue. The EU needs to get on. budgets, elections and only one objection out of 27, and it's "f**k you Perfidious Albion Brexit means Brexit."

Unless there is a realistic prospect of a change in UKGov and approach/desired outcome there's no chance of an extension of A50. That's the whole point of A50's countdown, to prevent never-ending negotiations and leveraging time as a bargaining tool.

The worst moment happened in March when the tone of the EU shifted to acceptance that the UK had lost its fucking mind and weren't interested in engaging with the process and was still, after all this fucking time arguing with itself. 

It is, and we are, fucked (if we stay attached to these Empire fantasists)

I accept that it only takes one objection to kibosh it but I reckon that even the smallest trading partner of the U.K. in the EU would prefer to continue to have uninterrupted trade.

Time will tell I suppose.

 

[williemillersmoustache]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I accept that it only takes one objection to kibosh it but I reckon that even the smallest trading partner of the U.K. in the EU would prefer to continue to have uninterrupted trade.

Time will tell I suppose.

 

Aye it will, I think it relies on good faith. If they agree to more time, is the current shower of b*****ds likely to suddenly start acting in good faith? Doubt it. And so do they.

[Paco]

Looks to me like the end game is asking for an extension and banking we don’t get it - thus, May delivers a hard, no deal Brexit so the right flank of the party leave her alone, and the ensuing crisis can be sold to the shitmunchers as the EU’s fault. Iron Lady May refused to bow to the EU demands, Rees Mogg and his ilk are delighted and the country gets a scapegoat.