Could Brexit Actually Be Stopped?

[th1stleandr0se]

I got quite excited the first time I heard that there might be no deal over Brexit because I thought that might mean that we could get out of it.  There's support for a second referendum on the terms of the deal if one can be reached but what I want to know is - is there any way in which we can stop Brexit and actually stay in Europe or is it too late?  The Daily Mail and the likes who influenced the unthinking masses into voting for Brexit are now running stories about what a disaster it'll be so maybe if we were to ask again, those same people would do what they're told and vote to stop it.  The problem is that we actually gave notice that we're leaving and I don't know if we can withdraw that notice.  If you put your notice in at your work, you can't come back next week and say that you've changed your mind.

Any constitutional experts out there?  Or does anyone have a cunning plan which could scupper the whole process and mean that we couldn't leave?

[carpetmonster]

EU27 have said the UK is welcome to change its mind and stay in the EU at any point prior to actually leaving.

[Richey Edwards]

This is just my opinion, but the whole thing has been a clusterfuck from the beginning.

First of all, the Conservatives gave into the swivel-eyed loons and pledged to hold an in/out referendum on EU membership in their 2015 manifesto. Prior to this, I don't remember there being much "mainstream" opposition to EU membership. Indeed, Euro-scepticism appeared to be confined mainly to a few "wacky" mavericks within the main parties and amongst the extremes of the political spectrum (to the Far-Left it was an instrument of capitalism, to the Far-Right it was an underminer of national sovereignty, a threat to national security and a waste of money).

Secondly, there had not been any sort of prior planning about what was actually going to happen in the (then seemingly unlikely) event of the UK voting to leave the EU. I admit, I personally thought at the time that Remain were going to skoosh the referendum and I know that many people were the same. However, why wasn't there any preliminary negotiations done about how Brexit would happen IF the UK voted for it?

This lack of actual concrete information about what an exit from the European Union would entail ensured that, instead of there being a clear choice, we witnessed a complacent and weak Remain campaign against a Leave campaign based upon misinformation, speculation, scaremongering and xenophobia. Unfortunately certain sections of society lapped up the rhetoric of the Leave campaign and this is why we are where we are.

Of course it would be perfectly legal, and to many people welcome, for the UK government to hold a second EU referendum. Also, the EU and various politicians have said that the UK would be welcome to remain in the EU if it changed its mind.

Sorry for the political post, but I was bored and it's a rainy day.

[NJ2]

To take your work analogy, you can retract your resignation while still serving your notice period (which we effectively are) though. There’s no requirement for the union to accept our withdrawal of our resignation (it that’s the term).
Can’t see it happening anyway.

[NotThePars]

To take your work analogy, you can retract your resignation while still serving your notice period (which we effectively are) though. There’s no requirement for the union to accept our withdrawal of our resignation (it that’s the term).
Can’t see it happening anyway.

I read something in the LRB which suggested that there would be terms for rejoining the EU but I’m not gonna pretend I can begin to understand if that’s the case.

[Ivo den Bieman]

The trouble is that:

1. a second referendum would need to be legislated for and the government will not destroy itself by initiating it;

2. if we bounce out with no deal, then really, we bounce out with no deal. There's no EU thumbing their nose at us and going ah we were just bluffing guys LOL, or a UK equivalent. They've already said they won't extend the deadline unless there is a marked sea-change in UK politics. Given that English politics is a vile cocktail of fascist zoomers, Empire nostalgiacs and inert complainers, I won't be holding my breath.

Noisy liberals demanding a second referendum are dominating a lot of twitterspheres at the moment. The trouble is, they are totally powerless politically, and from that position their demands are highly unlikely to transfer into action before 29 March next year. In fact, I really don't see how they can, short of Corbyn being persuaded to back a second referendum and then winning a snap GE caused by the collapse of the Tories. Time's really running out for there to be any chance of that; all these things have to happen within the next few weeks if there's to be another vote.

I still think on balance some face saving fudge which will cost an eye watering amount of money for decades is likeliest. A No Deal exit will be a catastrophe and lead to a lot of discontent / unrest next year.

No Deal Brexit is an ultra-right wing coup without guns. I"m afraid the time for stopping Brexit seems to have passed.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

The trouble is that:
1. a second referendum would need to be legislated for and the government will not destroy itself by initiating it;
2. if we bounce out with no deal, then really, we bounce out with no deal. There's no EU thumbing their nose at us and going ah we were just bluffing guys LOL, or a UK equivalent. They've already said they won't extend the deadline unless there is a marked sea-change in UK politics. Given that English politics is a vile cocktail of fascist zoomers, Empire nostalgiacs and inert complainers, I won't be holding my breath.
Noisy liberals demanding a second referendum are dominating a lot of twitterspheres at the moment. The trouble is, they are totally powerless politically, and from that position their demands are highly unlikely to transfer into action before 29 March next year. In fact, I really don't see how they can, short of Corbyn being persuaded to back a second referendum and then winning a snap GE caused by the collapse of the Tories. Time's really running out for there to be any chance of that; all these things have to happen within the next few weeks if there's to be another vote.
I still think on balance some face saving fudge which will cost an eye watering amount of money for decades is likeliest. A No Deal exit will be a catastrophe and lead to a lot of discontent / unrest next year.
No Deal Brexit is an ultra-right wing coup without guns. I"m afraid the time for stopping Brexit seems to have passed.

In Lord Adonis we trust. There, that's something no-one ever expected to read.

[sparky88]

A second referendum isnt going to happen in the near future because it will take so long to legislate. I dont know why remain are pushing this peoples vote thing

 I have always said that when it comes down to it, Brexit won't happen. May has already started the process of kicking the can down the road with the transition agreement and i think this will happen for a while yet. 

[Granny Danger]

My understanding of it is that May must bring back the final terms to Parliament in the form of a statement (?) and the Speaker will decide if amendments can be made.

The general view is that if amendments are allowed the likely proposal will not be accepted and an extension may be sought.

As has been said the EU have intimated that they will not be sympathetic to an extension under those circumstances but I think that is something they may compromise on.

 

 

[harry94]

The way I see it is that Britain leaving the EU has always been quite a realistic prospect. Despite all the talk about polling and it being a shock, it's consistently been a popular issue in British politics with polls of polls in the run up to the vote being within the margin of error and periodically seeing times where 'leave' was more popular. Compare this to Scottish Independence and I think we have only maybe had one or two times that a 'yes' vote has ever been in the lead in the hundreds of commisioned polls and the final vote was also relatively tight.

This issue isn't going away, I think overall, the British public have been fed lies and lies about the European Union and I really don't think there's any future for the UK as full EU members due to this. You try to reverse a decision like this and it'll just replay again in 10-15 years time with more resentment.  A lot of politicians would lose their seats and it would very likely lead to more extreme ideologues making their way into parliament.

Constitutionally, I believe there's no hurdles to a reversal and plans could easily be abandoned with May calling a vote now to issue a notice to withdraw article 50. I think it's far more likely, but still improbable, that there's a push towards putting EEA back on the table (which is a murky legal debate but I think it is doable) for at least a few years . I agree with Granny Danger that we'll most likely go down the extension route and the EU will grant this.

[Fullerene]

I recall a colleague from a company I use to work for.  He was made redundant, I went to his leaving-do and a week later he was back.
"Now they know what I do," he said.

It is a similar issue with the EU.

At the moment, a lot of people who voted leave have absolutely no idea what EU membership is really all about.
I suspect it will become obvious the day after we leave and that April 2019 will be spent trying to undo the whole thing.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Mods, Can we merge this thread with the main one?

[BawWatchin]

England won't reverse on brexit, absolutely zero chance of that. The door is open for Scotland though.

[ICTJohnboy]

15 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

England won't reverse on brexit, absolutely zero chance of that. The door is open for Scotland though.

 

If only that was the case.

[Granny Danger]

15 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

England won't reverse on brexit, absolutely zero chance of that. The door is open for Scotland though.

What do you base this assertion on?

Based on the various recent opinion polls it is simply not the case.  

[Suspect Device]

Yes and it will probably be stopped imo.

[welshbairn]

They'll need some wording from the EU that they can sell as a compromise over migration and a victory imo. France and Germany have been muttering about restrictions on free movement to stop unfair wage competition and deportation if migrants don't find work after a certain time.

[BawWatchin]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

What do you base this assertion on?

Based on the various recent opinion polls it is simply not the case.  

What's opinion polls got to do with anything? The door back into the EU is open to Scotland. They have been very clear about this.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

As much as I'd dearly love for the clusterf*ck to go away, I suspect that there's zero chance of it being stopped.

I do suspect though, as posted above, that it'll be diluted to the point where it's Brexshit in name only. I'm almost admiring May's cahones in the way that she's deliberately stretching this out to the point that almost nobody knows what's happening or will give up giving a f*ck.

We'll eventually end up with a watered-down form of EU membership/Brexit that will be full of legal holes and cobbled together compromises. In the midst of it the UK will introduce blue passports, spout some kind of f*cked-up right-wing rhetoric about tougher immigration, and promise to introduce inches and ounces sometime in the future......all of it designed to keep your average Daily Express f*ckwit in his/her xenophobic coma.

It's a tactical masterpiece in kicking the can endlessly along the road without ever making a real decision. I'm using her tactics in my office....they're brilliant.

 

 

 

 

[Peppino Impastato]

7 hours ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

If only that was the case.

Erm the EU themselves have said this is the case champ