League Cup Group Winners & Runners-up 18/19

[Dunning1874]

Now we're at the three/four games played point, it's winners/runners-up scenarios time again. As ever, I've probably fucked something up so feel free to point it out.

Group A

County have still only played two so there are few more scenarios for this one.

The sides who can mathematically go through are Alloa are on 8 points, Ross County on 6, Arbroath on 5. The remaining games for these sides are Ross County v Arbroath tonight & Alloa v Ross County on Saturday.

Scenarios:

Ross County win the group if:

they beat Alloa regardless of result v Arbroath
they beat Arbroath and draw with Alloa then win the penalty shootout
they beat Arbroath by more than two goals (or win 5-3 to overtake Alloa on away goals scored) and draw with Alloa then lose the penalty shootout
they draw with both Arbroath & Alloa and win both penalty shootouts

Alloa win the group if:

They beat Ross County
Ross County draw both their games and only win one of the shootouts
Ross County lose to Arbroath and Alloa avoid defeat

Arbroath can no longer win the group but can finish as runners-up if:

They beat Ross County and Alloa beat Ross County
They beat Ross County and Ross County beat Alloa with a five goal swing from Alloa to Arbroath
They beat Ross County then Alloa & Ross County draw with Alloa winning the shootout
They beat Ross County by two goals, then Alloa & Ross County draw with County winning the shootout
They draw with Ross County and win the penalty shootout then Ross County lose to Alloa

Minimum number of points the runner-up can have is 7, maximum is 10.

Group B

The teams who can still finish top two have all played three - St Johnstone on 8 points, Montrose on 6 & Falkirk on 3.

Forfar v Montrose tonight, East Fife v Falkirk & Forfar v St Johnstone on Saturday.

St Johnstone win the group if:

They beat Forfar
They draw with Forfar then win the shootout
They draw with Forfar then lose the shootout if Montrose fail to beat Forfar
They lose to Forfar by one goal and Montrose draw with Forfar then win on penalties, without Montrose scoring more goals than them

Montrose win the group if:

They beat Forfar & St Johnstone lose
They beat Forfar by more than one goal & St Johnstone draw with Forfar then lose on penalties
They beat Forfar by one goal & St Johnstone draw Forfar then lose on penalties, with St Johnstone scoring the same number of goals as Montrose or less

Falkirk can only finish as runners-up if they win and Montrose lose, but they're obviously not going through with 6 points anyway.

Minimum number of points for runners-up is 6, maximum is 9.

Group C

Inverness Caledonian Thistle on 9 points, Hearts on 6, same goal difference. ICT v Hearts on Sunday.

If ICT avoid defeat they win the group. Hearts must win.

Cowdenbeath can, of course, still finish second if ICT win by 12 goals.

Runner-up minimum is 6, maximum is 9.

Group D

The top three have all only played two at the moment, everyone can still mathematically finish second. Bollocks to going through all of the scenarios before the games tonight, but Dunfermline are top with six points and are playing Brechin tonight then Stirling on Saturday. If they win tonight Brechin (4 points) can't catch them and Dundee (3 points) need them to lose one of their games.

Group E

Ayr & Partick both on 9 points and play the decider for first and second on Saturday. Runners-up will have 9 points if there's a winner in 90 minutes and 10 if it's decided by shootout.

Group F

Livingston on 8 points, Airdrie on 6, Hamilton on 4. Hamilton v Airdrie & Livingston v Berwick on Saturday.

Livingston win the group if:

They beat Berwick
They draw with Berwick then win the penalty shootout
They draw with Berwick then lose the penalty shootout and Airdrie fail to beat Hamilton
They lose to Berwick and Airdrie either lose in 90 minutes or draw then lose on penalties

Airdrie win the group if they beat Hamilton and Livingston either lose to Berwick or draw then lose on penalties.

Hamilton can only finish as runners-up by beating Airdrie.

Minimum runner-up points 7, maximum 9.

Group G

Queen of the South (played four) are top with 9. Motherwell on 7, Clyde on 4. Clyde v Motherwell.

Motherwell have to win to win the group - drawing and winning the shootout would see QoS winning the group on goals scored, unless it was a 4-4 draw or higher which would win Motherwell the group on away goals scored.

Clyde can overtake Motherwell in second if they beat them by four goals.

Minimum runner up points 7, maximum 9.

Group H

Kilmarnock 7, St Mirren 6, Dumbarton 5, Queen's Park 4. Kilmarnock v Queen's Park, St Mirren v Dumbarton.

Kilmarnock win it if:

They win.
They draw and win on penalties, unless St Mirren beat Dumbarton by five.
They draw and lose on penalties and Dumbarton win the penalty shootout after drawing with St Mirren
They draw and lose on penalties with Dumbarton beating St Mirren by less than six
They lose by less than 3 while Dumbarton and St Mirren draw with Dumbarton winning the shootout - this would put all teams on 7 points with Kilmarnock having the best GD

St Mirren win it if:

They win while Kilmarnock lose or draw and lose the shootout
They draw and win the shootout while Kilmarnock draw and lose the shootout

Dumbarton win it if:

They win and Kilmarnock lose
They win by six and Kilmarnock draw and lose the shootout

Queen's Park win it if:

They win by three and Dumbarton v St Mirren is a draw with Dumbarton winning the shootout

There are of course multiple permutations for runner-up in this group from 7-9 points as well; figure them out yourselves, I'm done.

[RandomGuy.]

Should've made it easier for yourself and waited until after tonight's games, really. 

[PauloPerth]

Seeded teams:

Celtic

Aberdeen

Rangers

Hibs

Ayr United

Dunfermline

St Johnstone

Livingston/ICT

(if ICT get 2 points against Hearts, they will qualify as seeds and Livi go through as an unseeded team. If Hearts win or draw and Hearts get bonus point, then Livingston get the final seeded place)

 

non-seeded teams:

Ross County

Kilmarnock

Dundee

Motherwell

St Mirren

QOS

and 2 teams out of:  Partick/Livingston/Hearts/ICT that depends on the result tomorrow 

 

Being seeded hardly gives an easy tie!

[Guest Flash]

4 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Seeded teams:

Celtic

Aberdeen

Rangers

Hibs

Ayr United

Dunfermline

St Johnstone

Livingston/QOS

non-seeded teams:

Ross County

Kilmarnock

Dundee

Motherwell

St Mirren

and 3 teams out of:  Patrick/Livingston/QOS/Hearts that depends on the result tomorrow 

 

Being seeded hardly gives an easy tie!

Think you need to win the group to be seeded, so that rules us out. Not sure why it would be between us and Livi anyway as they have 11 points and we’ve got 9. Did you mean ICT? We’re aleady through but will be unseeded.

[PauloPerth]

I meant ICT yes I made a c**t of it. Will sort it out.

[Lothiangamer]

2 hours ago, PauloPerth said:

 

Being seeded hardly gives an easy tie!

 

However, being seeded keeps you away from Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hibs.  it does look like whoever you get from the unseeded teams would still be a tough draw though.

[parsforlife]

However, being seeded keeps you away from Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Hibs.  it does look like whoever you get from the unseeded teams would still be a tough draw though.

With the group games it's pretty unlikely that anyone outside the top 2 leagues will qualify, unless your Celtic nobody can really be written off.

[HibeeJibee]

18 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

With the group games it's pretty unlikely that anyone outside the top 2 leagues will qualify

 

 

Which is now clearly becoming a downside, IMO... doubly so with the Challenge Cup rehash making it hard for smaller clubs to progress, and many teams and fans taking it even less seriously.

For most lower-league sides proper cup football now amounts to the Scottish Cup which is regrettable.

Since the League Cup was reorganised Peterhead are the only lower-league side to progress, IIRC.


Incidentally the phenomenon of the bonus shoot-outs having next-to-no effect continues.

In 2016-17 the only difference it made was Peterhead qualifying not Dundee. Last season only Dunfermline not Peterhead. This season only St Mirren not Airdrie (or Partick if Hearts win).

[eez-eh]

24 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

Which is now clearly becoming a downside, IMO... doubly so with the Challenge Cup rehash making it hard for smaller clubs to progress, and many teams and fans taking it even less seriously.

For most lower-league sides proper cup football now amounts to the Scottish Cup which is regrettable.

Since the League Cup was reorganised Peterhead are the only lower-league side to progress, IIRC.


Incidentally the phenomenon of the bonus shoot-outs having next-to-no effect continues.

In 2016-17 the only difference it made was Peterhead qualifying not Dundee. Last season only Dunfermline not Peterhead. This season only St Mirren not Airdrie (or Partick if Hearts win).

Ayr did it last season as a League One side.

As did Alloa the season before that.

[wuffster]

Incidentally the phenomenon of the bonus shoot-outs having next-to-no effect continues.

Thanks for doing the sums on that, I did wonder just how gimmicky they were. The reordering of the two minor cups really shows the contempt the SPFL management have for the bottom two leagues.

[eez-eh]

A quick glance at the previous league cup campaigns before the group stages were introduced shows a similar number of Tier 3 and Tier 4 teams at the last 16 stage, i.e. usually 0 or 1.

It’s a bit misleading to say the the new format is working against lower league teams, at least on that basis anyway.

[D'Jaffo]

To be honest, the League Cup stage is an absolute success, it’s been a great addition to the leagues having a cup where teams play other teams that otherwise they’re very unlikely to play. The fact the penalty shoot out hasn’t had an effect is due to a small sample, not a bad idea. 

Completely agree

[Poet of the Macabre]

Must have missed these great years of League 1 and League 2 sides progressing far in the League Cup when up against teams from the top two divisions. I seem to recall they almost always got to play one or two games max and were then eliminated.

Now we're saying almost nothing has changed but they get four games out of the competition instead? This is somehow a bad thing and devalues the tournament for these teams?

[HibeeJibee]

3 hours ago, eez-eh said:

Ayr did it last season as a League One side.

As did Alloa the season before that.

Fair enough, although given both had come down from the Championship and/or went back up I suppose it shadows the broader point though.

For avoidance of doubt my point is simply that for most part-time clubs there's no realistic prospect of qualifying, and - especially coupled with the Challenge Cup adjustments - that is a downside. Some pragmatically treat it as an extended pre-season. To observe such isn't denying it provides upsides like inter-divisional match-ups, or realistic prospects for bigger sides.

However if there was an intermediate or extra knockout round so all runners-up could qualify - or even the top 3s - or more groups could be accommodated, it'd give more clubs more realistic opportunities for progression.
 

3 hours ago, eez-eh said:

A quick glance at the previous league cup campaigns before the group stages were introduced shows a similar number of Tier 3 and Tier 4 teams at the last 16 stage, i.e. usually 0 or 1.

It’s a bit misleading to say the the new format is working against lower league teams, at least on that basis anyway.

It's not the lack of sides reaching the Last 16. That would be uncommon by any format. (Albeit both League Cup R1 until latterly and all of the Challenge Cup used to be unseeded, tbf. They've now taken the seeding back out of the Challenge Cup but the format, 'B' teams + Irish/Welsh sides made it tougher. Berwick regularly progressed past LC R1).

It's the fact knockout cup football is now more restricted - the Scottish Cup, plus the Challenge Cup which sadly is becoming worse regarded and itself harder to progress in. In the past there was the prospect of getting through rounds in any of 3 cups, perhaps having a decent run in 1 or more. That's now become considerably more restricted.


I don't see the above as particularly counter-factual or controversial. For smaller clubs progressing at all in the League Cup, and as far in the Challenge Cup, would now seem noticeably more difficult.

[BFTD]

The League Cup always felt like an extension of pre-season for us anyway. Looking back, we only made it past the first two games once in the 21st century under the old system. It's felt like we've "progressed" a lot more this season alone than in most of those, even though we didn't get out of the group. The aim of the reformation was surely to make the competition more appealing to audiences, rather than trying to get more diddies into the latter stages. There'd be better ways of doing that.

How have attendances compared in the past few years?

[PauloPerth]

I think it's been a great introduction. Guarantees teams from lower divisions matches against teams from the top two divisions. In previous seasons, more than half of them would have been knocked out by the time the premier(ship) clubs were introduced. You're painting this romanticised picture of the league cup when the reality for over half the clubs in the bottom two divisions is that they would get knocked out in a run of the mill tie against a team from the same division, or one above/ below, and never even get a sniff of a bigger club, never mind a shock win.

In terms of lower league clubs treating it as a glorified friendly, I can assure you Montrose, East Fife and Forfar didn't. They all gave us extremely competetitive matches.

As for the group stage working against the lower league teams.. if Montrose had beaten us last Saturday then they would have progressed at our expense, same as had they played us in a straightforward knockout match. If Forfar had beaten Saints today, then they also would have qualified for the round of 16, exactly as they would have if it was a knockout format.

The league cup last 16 and last 8 particularly prior to this change were really boring, absolutely dominated by Premiership clubs.

The only two clubs to progress with 100% records this season are Dunfermline and Ayr, who just got promoted from league one. 

I personally think the new format has totally re-invigorated the competition. The absence of the OF means the media spotlight is shared really well amongst all the clubs, and most attention given to the best footballing performance on that particular match day, often from the lower divisions,  rather than just to pander to the two clubs with the biggest supports. 

 

[PB1994]

To be honest, the League Cup stage is an absolute success, it’s been a great addition to the leagues having a cup where teams play other teams that otherwise they’re very unlikely to play. The fact the penalty shoot out hasn’t had an effect is due to a small sample, not a bad idea. 

Totally agree with you that the new format has been a success but the penalty shoot out has had an impact this year on group c. If Hearts has lost that then the group would be finished.

No doubt if Hearts had lost that then they would have only been deducted 1 point.....

[BFTD]

10 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

You must have been rubbish - ours would be 6 or 7, IIRC .

We're worse these days but unless we were top-end SPFL1 it probably wouldn't make much odds.

Yeah, the old League Cup was pretty much a brief hurdle for us to get out of the way before the league started. It's actually worse than I stated earlier - we'd only made it past the Second Round on five occasions since 1975  

I'm getting that from this Wiki page, but I can't see one for Berwick, unfortunately. I wonder which of the part-time sides has the best record in the League Cup.

17 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

Arguably a different question is - would people want them in the league?

My feelings on penalty shoot-outs in the league fluctuate between "no thanks" to "get this fired into the fucking sun, as it could somehow find its way back out of the sea".

I'm pretty easy-going, however - I can see others being far more militant about the subject.

[Skyline Drifter]

10 hours ago, ali_91 said:

To be honest, the League Cup stage is an absolute success, it’s been a great addition to the leagues having a cup where teams play other teams that otherwise they’re very unlikely to play. The fact the penalty shoot out hasn’t had an effect is due to a small sample, not a bad idea. 

Yeah this pretty much. HJ's view seems largely at odds with just about everybody else. With one caveat I think the League Cup groups are a proven success so far.

I do fear after 4 or 5 years it may get too "samey". We have been a 2nd seed for all three years so far. With the regionalisation we are bound to draw one of pretty much the same 4 top seeds every year and three of pretty much the same 12 lower seeds every year. So far we have been lucky to get different draws each time but there is bound to be regular draws against the same sides.

[forfarton]

Yeah this pretty much. HJ's view seems largely at odds with just about everybody else. With one caveat I think the League Cup groups are a proven success so far.
I do fear after 4 or 5 years it may get too "samey". We have been a 2nd seed for all three years so far. With the regionalisation we are bound to draw one of pretty much the same 4 top seeds every year and three of pretty much the same 12 lower seeds every year. So far we have been lucky to get different draws each time but there is bound to be regular draws against the same sides.

Groups are fine but they should get rid of the first seed automatically being at home to the second seed.