What is the point of Labour ?

[Baxter Parp]

2 hours ago, Jedi said:

Okay....what 'changed; for me with the SNP after 36 years........the prospectus of the Growth Commission Report, and its proposal to cut public services for up to 10 years, the prospect of being 'Independent' but outside the EU, the centralisation of decision making in the party around a small cabal, their treatment of teachers and the schools issue in particular over the past 9 months, the handling of the Salmond inquiry, their record on public services....education, the health service in particular.

The Growth Commission Report does not propose that Scotland should cut public services for up to 10 years. Problem solved.

Anybody who reverses their stance on Scottish Independence because of party politics is either a liar or a moron.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Baxter Parp

[oneteaminglasgow]

10 minutes ago, Jedi said:

I hold out the hope for (probably) a 2nd term Labour govt being able to conduct a successful rejoin referendum.

Is this based on anything other than wild optimism?

I can’t see either Labour or any other U.K. party running with that as a policy, or being elected with that as a policy anytime in the near future. 

[Guest Jedi]

30 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

is either a liar or a moron.

Must be both.

Their proposals imply another decade of the sort of restraint on public spending that Scotland is currently experiencing. If this is austerity, then austerity would be extended under the Commission’s proposals.

Such an approach would see spending on public services and benefits fall by about 4% of GDP over that decade. Add on the growing amount the Scottish government would have to spend on servicing its increasing post-independence debt, and overall public spending and hence the deficit would fall by 3% of GDP.

"The ageing of the population - which adds to pressures on the health, social care and state pension budgets - means that keeping to an overall spending increase of just 0.5% a year would likely require cuts to many other public services."

 

• 3.187: During the transition period real increases in public spending should be limited to sufficiently less than GDP growth over the business cycle to reduce the deficit to below 3% within 5 to 10 years.  (The Growth Commission Report)
• “... it is important to have a clear, credible fiscal trajectory planned. This should move with pace, aiming to achieve a sustainable fiscal position within 10 years. This timeline is necessary to ensure consistency with EU fiscal rules, as well as recognising the limits with financing fiscal deficits of anywhere close to the current level.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13072

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/growth-commission-institute-fiscal-studies-12713794

The commission has claimed to reject the existing ‘austerity model’ but has replaced it with one that is necessarily harsher. Necessarily so because, unlike the situation for Scotland remaining within the UK, the Commission suggests than an independent Scotland would have to get its deficit below 3% within a decade.

“[The Growth Commission] does not reject austerity in reality.  It would create the conditions for austerity politics to thrive”  – Jonathon Shafi, Co-founder of the Radical Independence Campaig

https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i307/gc_5_the_truth_about_austerity.aspx

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Jedi

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I was a member of the Labour Party for over 20 years.  A councillor for 10 years, holder of various party positions including a member of the Scottish Executive for two years.
I couldn’t give my reasons for not voting Labour in 10 paragraphs let alone one.
 

Joined the Labour Party at 18 in 1985. Left in 1994 when Blair was elected. Held various elected positions within Scottish Labour Students and was twice a member of NUS Scotland Executive as a Labour candidate. Stood as council candidate in 1992.

Even in that period of 9 years the party changed from the one I joined. I probably started off on the right of the Labour Party - by the time I left I was on the soft left - I hadn't changed - Labour had.

[Baxter Parp]

12 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Must be both.

Their proposals imply another decade of the sort of restraint on public spending that Scotland is currently experiencing. If this is austerity, then austerity would be extended under the Commission’s proposals.

Such an approach would see spending on public services and benefits fall by about 4% of GDP over that decade. Add on the growing amount the Scottish government would have to spend on servicing its increasing post-independence debt, and overall public spending and hence the deficit would fall by 3% of GDP.

"The ageing of the population - which adds to pressures on the health, social care and state pension budgets - means that keeping to an overall spending increase of just 0.5% a year would likely require cuts to many other public services."

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13072

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/growth-commission-institute-fiscal-studies-12713794

 

 

 

From the IFS link: The Commission claims their proposals do not amount to austerity as public spending would be increasing in real terms.  Which is right - real terms increases in public spending does not = austerity.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Baxter Parp

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Must be both.

Since we're going back to 2018, sooner we leave the UK mess behind and get back in the EU the better.

 

 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability

Edited December 23, 2020 by welshbairn

[Wee Bully]

'Excess' deaths in relation to Covid...3rd highest on European averages....'working' with charts and graphs. Didnt even mention the care home situation in Scotland as well.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18618596.coronavirus-scotland-third-highest-rate-excess-deaths-europe-england-spain/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54989613
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-in-scotland-country-third-worst-in-europe-for-excess-deathshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54989613-in-pandemic-9ctj9g9pd
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-third-highest-excess-death-22442287
 
 

Anything more recent than July? What’s the current position?

[Guest Jedi]

'would likely require cuts to many other public services' (also IFS report)

It also notes that in order to make real term increases in public spending, the Scottish economy would have to grow by at least 1% per year, which it hasn't done now for over 10 years, running at best, at 0.8%, and thats before the Covid effect is factored in, in the future.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Jedi said:

'would likely require cuts to many other public services' (also IFS report)

It also notes that in order to make real term increases in public spending, the Scottish economy would have to grow by at least 1% per year, which it hasn't done now for over 10 years, running at best, at 0.8%, and thats before the Covid effect is factored in, in the future.

But you don't factor in Brexit in the rUK for some reason. Why is that?

[Guest Jedi]

5 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Anything more recent than July? What’s the current position?

26th of November....

https://www.ft.com/content/cadc1f6c-14f7-40a9-a68a-f1409fd25997

And yes, absolutely agree that getting back in the EU as soon as possible, is pretty important....you do need your own Central Bank for that first of all, which involves your own central bank being your lender of last resort (not the Bank of England), and potentially joining the Euro, as well as an, on average 4-5 year application process. Here's Andrew Wilson...

 

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Jedi said:

average 4-5 year application process

Not this shite again. Polls say highest ever support for independence, 58%, and suddenly you appear. 36 years an SNP member my arse.

[DukDukGoose]

3 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

I have 600 confirmed kills on Halo

Stud.

[DukDukGoose]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Not this shite again. Polls say highest ever support for independence, 58%, and suddenly you appear. 36 years an SNP member my arse.

I was surprised everyone humoured him for so long.

[Guest Jedi]

So we can have two posters talking about their long time commitment to/membership of the Labour Party (even over 20 years), and its 'perfectly reasonable' to change their minds/leave (in addition to being 'truthful'....but not the SNP...why is that?

Indeed, I have been reading folk on Twitter talking about leaving Labour after 40, and sometimes 50 years of membership,with no questioning of their 'truthfulness'.......any criticism of the SNP is 'trolling', but other parties...fair game.

I have also said on a few occasions that given a binary choice of Independence or status quo that I would (again) vote Yes, while expecting the first years of Indy to be a bumpy ride...but would still prefer that Devo Max offer.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Jedi

[welshbairn]

There is no offer from anyone who can deliver it. Even if there was, it still means getting dragged into the mid Atlantic on a sinking ship. Being represented by a delusional UK Government that thinks that 2 aircraft carriers without support ships and a few hired American planes can bring back the old days of the opium trade where we make the rules, and we can do better in trade negotiations outside the biggest and most successful collective on the planet. Meanwhile we've just paid $10 more for a vaccine dose to Pfizer than we would have inside the collective.

Edited December 23, 2020 by welshbairn

[Guest Jedi]

Agree that there is no offer on the table at present, and as long as that remains the case or the offer is watered down again, that Independece is the better option against a status quo.

[Baxter Parp]

56 minutes ago, Jedi said:

the Scottish economy would have to grow by at least 1% per year, which it hasn't done now for over 10 years

All the more reason to be independent.

[Baxter Parp]

49 minutes ago, Jedi said:

26th of November....

https://www.ft.com/content/cadc1f6c-14f7-40a9-a68a-f1409fd25997

 

Choose your subscription

[SANTAN]

11 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I don't get this sudden aversion to being independent but outside the EU, we were always going to have to reapply after independence.

So the only way to have potentially remained in the EU was to have voted No in 2014? 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

So the only way to have potentially remained in the EU was to have voted No in 2014? 

We'd certainly be back in by now to wave goodbye.