What is the point of Labour ?

[Guest Jedi]

6 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Do you know any SNP supporters that voted Leave? 

The figure posted at the time was 36% of SNP supporters who voted Leave...which gives them nearly a 60-40 in favour of Remain (among supporters)...9Labour was roughly the same sort of breakdown). 

Clearly not a majority but a significant proportion of supporters nonetheless.

 

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14950013.36-snp-labour-supporters-backed-brexit-finds-survey/

Edited October 2, 2022 by Jedi

[jakedee]

The figure posted at the time was 36% of SNP supporters who voted Leave...which gives them nearly a 60-40 in favour of Remain (among supporters)...9Labour was roughly the same sort of breakdown). 
Clearly not a majority but a significant proportion of supporters nonetheless.
 
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14950013.36-snp-labour-supporters-backed-brexit-finds-survey/

That would make (giving the total leave vote was 36%) other party voters having the same % leave vote ie conservative, green and Libdem also at 36% leave.
These numbers don't add up.

[Donathan]

22 hours ago, Clown Job said:

I see the new Labour line seems to be that then winning a UK GE would be disastrous for the SNP and Scottish independence 

Without explaining why exactly 

They’ve still not gotten over Scottish voters giving them the boot at a Scottish and UK level 

I think the idea is that the best chance of an independence referendum being sanctioned by WM is in a hung Parliament scenario where Keir Starmer agrees to allow the referendum to proceed in return for the SNP voting him in to number 10.

 

If Labour win the stomping majority that the polls currently point towards then no such concession will be necessary from him and thus the issue is dead in the water for another five years again. 

[scottsdad]

The recent polls in a way are not good news for Labour. The polls will tighten between now and the election. And then any cut on their lead will be interpreted as pro-Tory momentum. The lefties in Labour who still think Corbyn jizzes glitter will be talking about Labour "blowing" a lead of 33%.

That one-off poll taken in the middle of a real crisis has really overblown the Labour position. In reality I reckon they are about 15 points ahead. 

[Granny Danger]

26 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

The recent polls in a way are not good news for Labour. The polls will tighten between now and the election. And then any cut on their lead will be interpreted as pro-Tory momentum. The lefties in Labour who still think Corbyn jizzes glitter will be talking about Labour "blowing" a lead of 33%.

That one-off poll taken in the middle of a real crisis has really overblown the Labour position. In reality I reckon they are about 15 points ahead. 

It’s in Scotland interest that Labour do not go into the GE with an insurmountable lead.

[scottsdad]

4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

It’s in Scotland interest that Labour do not go into the GE with an insurmountable lead.

The dream of a hung parliament won't bring the referendum you want. 

If it is a hung parliament, the SNP can demand what they like. But Labour could simply govern as a minority government. The SNP would then face a choice of supporting Labour on a vote-by-vote basis or voting with the Tories. 

[williemillersmoustache]

6 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

The dream of a hung parliament won't bring the referendum you want. 

If it is a hung parliament, the SNP can demand what they like. But Labour could simply govern as a minority government. The SNP would then face a choice of supporting Labour on a vote-by-vote basis or voting with the Tories. 

The numbers will really matter here as will the realpolitik, of the SNP going into a second general election being branded by Labour as supporting the tories and Labour going into the same second election on the back of being unable to form a functioning government because it doesn't think Scottish votes should count. 

It's not going to be as clear cut as either Team Yes or Labour think it will be. And one or two seats either way will make an enormous difference.  

[Granny Danger]

51 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

The dream of a hung parliament won't bring the referendum you want. 

If it is a hung parliament, the SNP can demand what they like. But Labour could simply govern as a minority government. The SNP would then face a choice of supporting Labour on a vote-by-vote basis or voting with the Tories. 

 

40 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

The numbers will really matter here as will the realpolitik, of the SNP going into a second general election being branded by Labour as supporting the tories and Labour going into the same second election on the back of being unable to form a functioning government because it doesn't think Scottish votes should count. 

It's not going to be as clear cut as either Team Yes or Labour think it will be. And one or two seats either way will make an enormous difference.  

No option is perfect but a hung Parliament where the Tories are the biggest party but without an overall majority would be the best of them all.

If Labour is the biggest party but without a majority I’d be happy to see the SNP vote with the Tories against the first budget.  

[btb]

1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

The dream of a hung parliament won't bring the referendum you want. 

If it is a hung parliament, the SNP can demand what they like. But Labour could simply govern as a minority government. The SNP would then face a choice of supporting Labour on a vote-by-vote basis or voting with the Tories. 

Then the SNP should be prepared to block all UK business - nothing to be gained from being the one party playing by the rules.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

What about the SNP doing a "Sinn Feinn" in this scenario? Pull their MPs so that they aren't in a position of having to vote with, or against Labour. 

[GiGi]

10 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

What about the SNP doing a "Sinn Feinn" in this scenario? Pull their MPs so that they aren't in a position of having to vote with, or against Labour. 

Kincardine has just started his session early after reading this. You'll be sorry you asked (in the wee hours of tomorrow morning). 

[williemillersmoustache]

2 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

What about the SNP doing a "Sinn Feinn" in this scenario? Pull their MPs so that they aren't in a position of having to vote with, or against Labour. 

It's not as mad as you might think. The traditional downside is that an MP has been elected to represented his constituents in Parliament,  and not showing up is a betryal of that mandate. However, *a lot* will happen between now and a GE. Depending on court cases and results, we might have either held a referendum and won or elected these MPs on a specific single issue of independence. So what would they be doing there?

Banter outcome clearly but not outrageous if they only appeared to vote things down until negotiations on independence start properly. 

They'd have to be sworn in to vote but I don't think anyone(that matters) would have an issue with them crossing their fingers. 

Of course the SNP could have fucked it or the parliamentary arithmetic could mean (still) that Scottish votes mean nothing and we could all self-immolate in protest and the only thing that would happen is Cumbrian farmers noticing a faint glow to the North. 

[Jacksgranda]

6 hours ago, Donathan said:

I think the idea is that the best chance of an independence referendum being sanctioned by WM is in a hung Parliament scenario where Keir Starmer agrees to allow the referendum to proceed in return for the SNP voting him in to number 10.

 

If Labour win the stomping majority that the polls currently point towards then no such concession will be necessary from him and thus the issue is dead in the water for another five years again. 

I don't think that will happen.

Happy to be proved wrong.

[Granny Danger]

11 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't think that will happen.

Happy to be proved wrong.

I agree.  The polls will draw closer as the GE beckons.

Scotland needs the SNP to hold their nerves, I hope that happens.

[Boo Khaki]

3 hours ago, scottsdad said:

The dream of a hung parliament won't bring the referendum you want. 

If it is a hung parliament, the SNP can demand what they like. But Labour could simply govern as a minority government. The SNP would then face a choice of supporting Labour on a vote-by-vote basis or voting with the Tories. 

Well in that scenario the SNP could just pull the frequent Labour stunt of ranting and raving about how awful government legislation and policy is, then abstaining when it comes to the actual vote.

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

I agree.  The polls will draw closer as the GE beckons.

Scotland needs the SNP to hold their nerves, I hope that happens.

The current polling in Labour’s favour reminds me of all the Indy polling which shows massive support for independence in the scenario of X, Y, or Z happening. No one relies on those polls. Folk have big steel balls on the phone to a pollster, especially when they’re being encouraged (by political events or by projected scenarios) to oppose the current government or status quo.

The trick for anyone is to ensure that people who get wet at the moment of polling - especially at heated moments or under heated circumstances - can be won round to actually putting their support behind a position in reality.

Committed independence supporters need to attend to this by actively campaigning rather than just relying on the UK being shite. Labour supporters will need to attend to this rather than just relying on the Tories being shite. Because, on election day, plenty of discontented people will bottle it and eat shite.

 

[Dunning1874]

Al-Jazeera's Labour files documentary is well worth a watch. A thoroughly corrupt mess of a party.

[Dunning1874]

I see Rachel Reeves is busy trying to attack the Tories from the right again after Suella Braverman pledged to introduce legislation banning anyone from claiming asylum in the UK under any circumstances, describing a lack of deportations as "12 years of Tory failure."

It's a good thing a Labour government will definitely move to the left on this by rejecting an utterly barbaric immigration policy, and won't simply entrench a rightward shift in the Overton window that enables the Tories to be even more evil next time. Really learning the lessons from the likes of Straw, Blunkett and Reid making immigration an electoral issue in the first place by spewing out xenophobia!

Edited October 5, 2022 by Dunning1874

[Clown Job]

1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

I see Rachel Reeves is busy trying to attack the Tories from the right again after Suella Braverman pledged to introduce legislation banning anyone from claiming asylum in the UK under amy circumstances, describing a lack of deportations as "12 years of Tory failure."

It's a good thing a Labour government will definitely move to the left on this by rejecting an utterly barbaric immigration policy, and won't simply entrench a rightward shift in the Overton window that enables the Tories to be even more evil next time. Really learning the lessons from the likes of Straw, Blunkett and Reid making immigration an electoral issue in the first place by spewing out xenophobia!

If anyone hasn’t seen it 

 

[Boo Khaki]

Labour seems to have a long-standing and amazing inability to adopt the sensible position on any issue that might inflame xenophobes and bigots. 

"No, the UK isn't 'full', and EU immigration is a massive boon to the UK economy" instead became a limp 'we need to talk about immigration' and ensured that any discussion of the issue automatically started from a default position of it being an inherently negative thing.

"Voting 'Leave' would be a catastrophic act of economic self-harm, and promises of £350million a week for the NHS are barefaced lies designed to fool the gullible" became 'EU... yay... I suppose' in front of 25 people in Aldershot before vanishing for the remainder of the campaign.

They are being pilloried currently for being an utterly anodyne and ineffectual opposition, but the truth is they've been exactly that since 2010 and are as much a part of the ongoing omnishambles that is the UK as the Tories or LibDems. I don't blame them for being so wet over the past couple of years, because they've clearly learned from Theresa May's approach that sometimes you can actually win a GE by doing as little as possible, and hiding yourself away as much as possible, in order not to impede your opponent while they are busy hoisting themselves with their own petard. 

I still find their 'Brexit is done' position completely unacceptable though. They've completely thrown the 48% of people who voted remain, and the proportion of the 52% who voted leave but in no way sanctioned an ultra-hard EU exit under the bus, and for that, they can completely and utterly get to f**k.