Structure for 2019/20 and beyond

[Burnie_man]

I notice a few discussions on this topic breaking out elsewhere so maybe a new thread is required to consolidate discussion.

We know that the top 5 in each Conference will be guaranteed a place in a 16 team top division for 2019/20, maybe some form of tie-breaker for 6th placed teams, but as yet we don’t know where the remaining clubs will end up, ie tier 7 and below.

I appreciate that it’s a fast changing picture at the moment, but I do think it’s important that every club has some form of understanding of what the 2019/20 structure might resemble, and some clarity on this over the next few months is required IMO.   Now of course, there would probably need to be more than one scenario based on possible new entrants into the league at the end of next season, but there are few things already known;

There are 18 clubs from the Lothians and Fife who remain in the Junior set-up.

16 Tayside/Perthshire clubs do not currently fall into the EoS area.

There are 2 (I think) Perthshire clubs who sit below the HL/LL “dividing line” and who are eligible given Jeanfield’s acceptance.

Clydebank have a deferred application pending, but likelihood is they will move to a WoSFL for 2019/20

Therefore if all remaining “eligible” clubs in the Junior set-up move, that’s 20 clubs or thereabouts, so potentially 59 clubs for season 2019/20, plus maybe new applicants from Amateur of Youth football.

Personally I’d like to see a region wide tier 7 based on finishing positions next season  eg places 6-10 in next seasons Conferences, or maybe even a second season of Conferences at tier 7 with everyone knowing what placing gets you where (just like this season) for 2020-2021 and the structure settled after that, however another “transition” season may not be palatable.  How do people see this panning out? 

[lowenan]

Conferences at tier 7 in 2019/20 sounds like a good idea. It gives new applicants something to dream of (a future place in the EOS Premier). Then for 2020/21 you settle down with a 16 team EOS Premier, a 16 team EOS first, and a regionalised 8th tier. 

[RedLichtie86]

With the top 5 from each Conference making up the Tier 6 league, you will be left with around 24 teams in Tier 7. Could be more if more clubs apply to join set up.

Best case would be splitting into 2 divisions. North and South.

They can have a 2 x 12 team divisions. 22 games. If more teams join or possibly higher tier teams might want to field a reserve side in the league that can bolster league sizes.

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[stanley]

I would go for 16 team Premier in 2019-20 with conferences below that.  Two or three depending on numbers.  Right now you would have 23 but could easily end up with 40+ if the rest of the eligible juniors join.

Don't think they would go for a region wide tier seven yet as there is potential for many clubs to join next season and that might put them off.  

Hard to tell what will happen.  A lot depends on how many clubs join.  Let's hope the remaining South of the Tay east juniors get on board.  Some of that probably depends on how things are in the juniors now that so many clubs have left.  

[ShrimpLok]

I don't think it can be assumed that the top 5 in each conference can be guaranteed a place in a 16 place EOS Premier in 2019-20.

There is an obvious scenario - HL team promoted to SPL2, LL area SPL2 team relegated - where only 14 places are available in EOS Premier for the current teams.

There are also less obvious scenarios where the SOS champion goes up as well as the above and there could only be 13 places available.

Any playoff therefore needs to involve 5th placed teams as well as 6th placed teams to ensure a ranking is in place for whatever eventual number of places are available in the EOS Premier. 

 

[Marten]

10 minutes ago, ShrimpLok said:

I don't think it can be assumed that the top 5 in each conference can be guaranteed a place in a 16 place EOS Premier in 2019-20.

There is an obvious scenario - HL team promoted to SPL2, LL area SPL2 team relegated - where only 14 places are available in EOS Premier for the current teams.

There are also less obvious scenarios where the SOS champion goes up as well as the above and there could only be 13 places available.

Any playoff therefore needs to involve 5th placed teams as well as 6th placed teams to ensure a ranking is in place for whatever eventual number of places are available in the EOS Premier. 

 

If a HL team beat a LL area SPFL2 team in the PO and 2 East clubs get relegated from the LL, the top 5 are still guaranteed a place in the EOS Premier unless the EOS champions get beaten by the SOS team in the promotion PO.

[ShrimpLok]

9 minutes ago, Marten said:

If a HL team beat a LL area SPFL2 team in the PO and 2 East clubs get relegated from the LL, the top 5 are still guaranteed a place in the EOS Premier unless the EOS champions get beaten by the SOS team in the promotion PO.

Of course. That would just been the best placed 6th finisher wouldn't make it to the Premier. Perhaps a more likely scenario would be the EOS champion being unlicensed for some reason and not being promoted for that reason rather than being beaten by the SOS champions. 

[ShrimpLok]

So I thought I'd have a look at where the split would be in a theoretical geographic division of the 2019-20 teams. If we assume no new applications and are just working with the 39 existing members I got something looking like this:

EOS Premier

Hill of Beath Hawthorn
Leith Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
Penicuik Athletic
Newtongrange Star

Bo'ness United
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Dundonald Bluebell
Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale
Haddington Athletic
Tynecastle

Broxburn Athletic
Camelon Juniors
Linlithgow Rose
Sauchie Juniors
Preston Athletic

EOS North

Jeanfield Swifts
St Andrews United
Stirling University Reserves
Dunipace
Oakley United
Burntisland Shipyard
Crossgates Primrose
Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
Blackburn United
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh United

EOS South

Craigroyston
Dalkeith Thistle
Easthouses Lily MW
Arniston Rangers
Ormiston
Tranent Juniors
Dunbar United
Peebles Rovers
Hawick Royal Albert
Coldstream
Eyemouth United
Tweedmouth Rangers

The split point is basically in Edinburgh with a Borders / Mid / East Lothian league and a West Lothian / Fife / Falkirk / Stirling / Perth league. Works quite well and has flexibility to add 2 more Edinburgh teams to the south league easily enough if there are a modest number of new applicants.  Once you got above 14 team leagues you'd be needing to add a few West Lothian teams into the South league.

If you had to absorb all 20 juniors south of the Tay then you'd be looking at a third league but it could still be done geographically with 3  x Tier 7 geographic leagues rather than conferences if that was the preferred option. 

[HibeeJibee]

As noted on another thread - the only scenario where there aren't at least 15 places in a new Premier Division is highly unlikely, requiring:

* EOSL champion wasn't licensed and SOSL champion was (or both were but SOSL champion won playoff...!)
and
* Highland League champion won promotion and 10th in SPFL2 was a club south of the Tay
and
* both 15th and 16th in Lowland League were east of the salt & sauce line


As for the remaining clubs in the lower level(s) - at this stage I don't see how anything conclusive could be said.

As it stands there would be about 23 clubs. That would need 2 divisions... but would they be conferences, say with inter-conference games? or North & South divisions, say playing 3 times?

They could even be First & Second divisions and tiers 7 & 8 although I'd think that the most unlikely.

However... what if there was a further influx of West Lothian or Fife juniors, or amateurs? If more than 9 to make more than 32 you'd need 3 divisions or conferences.

Given tremendous upheaval of recent weeks 'n months it's pretty good going that conferences, qualifying leagues and round-robin are in place plus outline of top 5s forming a Premier. Chill.

[FairWeatherFan]

A potential tell in this will be what the remaining East Juniors opt to do tonight. Seen it suggested they'd go for 3 entirely regional leagues instead of a super league sitting on top.

I believe the old East Premier League was occasionally under threat by those wanting more 'local' games. This reorganization could be seen as the opportunity to do 1-3 instead of 1-1-2

[Born To Run]

4 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

east of the salt & sauce line

In the recent Edinburgh News article (Scotsman), the secretary said current plans are for north and south divisions in tier 7. I could see either north/central/south divisions or conferences if more sides join next year.

[Burnie_man]

10 minutes ago, ShrimpLok said:

So I thought I'd have a look at where the split would be in a theoretical geographic division of the 2019-20 teams. If we assume no new applications and are just working with the 39 existing members I got something looking like this:

EOS Premier

Hill of Beath Hawthorn
Leith Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
Penicuik Athletic
Newtongrange Star

Bo'ness United
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Dundonald Bluebell
Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale
Haddington Athletic
Tynecastle

Broxburn Athletic
Camelon Juniors
Linlithgow Rose
Sauchie Juniors
Preston Athletic

EOS North

Jeanfield Swifts
St Andrews United
Stirling University Reserves
Dunipace
Oakley United
Burntisland Shipyard
Crossgates Primrose
Inverkeithing Hillfield Swifts
Blackburn United
Heriot-Watt University
Edinburgh United

EOS South

Craigroyston
Dalkeith Thistle
Easthouses Lily MW
Arniston Rangers
Ormiston
Tranent Juniors
Dunbar United
Peebles Rovers
Hawick Royal Albert
Coldstream
Eyemouth United
Tweedmouth Rangers

The split point is basically in Edinburgh with a Borders / Mid / East Lothian league and a West Lothian / Fife / Falkirk / Stirling / Perth league. Works quite well and has flexibility to add 2 more Edinburgh teams to the south league easily enough if there are a modest number of new applicants.  Once you got above 14 team leagues you'd be needing to add a few West Lothian teams into the South league.

If you had to absorb all 20 juniors south of the Tay then you'd be looking at a third league but it could still be done geographically with 3  x Tier 7 geographic leagues rather than conferences if that was the preferred option. 

I think that's an example is why a tier 7 regional split wouldn't be very desirable as things stand.   We know that new clubs will come into the league, therefore I think a 16 team "First Division" should be the aim, therefore two strong region wide leagues, just like last seasons East Juniors.

For us, being in a regional league with a team from Perth and St.Andrews makes no sense and illustrates the difficulty is setting the dividing line.

[HibeeJibee]

15 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

east of the salt & sauce line

 

5 minutes ago, Born To Run said:

Yet to find a more succinct description !

[ShrimpLok]

9 minutes ago, Burnie_man said:

I think that's an example is why a tier 7 regional split wouldn't be very desirable as things stand.   We know that new clubs will come into the league, therefore I think a 16 team "First Division" should be the aim, therefore two strong region wide leagues, just like last seasons East Juniors.

For us, being in a regional league with a team from Perth and St.Andrews makes no sense and illustrates the difficulty is setting the dividing line.

I see the logic of moving eventually to having the regional split at Tier 8.

Equally this year there were such big differentials in team strength that seeded conferences were needed to make the conferences fair and geographic leagues might not have distributed the strong teams fairly. 

I guess the question is would there be a significant quality differential in 2019-20 at Tier 7 between seeded conferences and regional leagues? If not then you could have 3 regional leagues in 2019-20 but with a pre-announced 2020-21 structure of a single Tier 7 league to be formed from the top 5 of each of the three regional leagues. 

[AsimButtHitsASix]

How long before the new clubs getting full members rights like voting? Is it a year?

It would seem a bit unfair that the majority of the clubs it affects will have little say in it.

[Burnie_man]

2 minutes ago, ShrimpLok said:

I see the logic of moving eventually to having the regional split at Tier 8.

Equally this year there were such big differentials in team strength that seeded conferences were needed to make the conferences fair and geographic leagues might not have distributed the strong teams fairly. 

I guess the question is would there be a significant quality differential in 2019-20 at Tier 7 between seeded conferences and regional leagues? If not then you could have 3 regional leagues in 2019-20 but with a pre-announced 2020-21 structure of a single Tier 7 league to be formed from the top 5 of each of the three regional leagues. 

Having another season of seeded Conferences, this time at tier 7 level, would probably be the most likely outcome if there is an influx of new members although that would stick in the throat a wee bit personally if we didn't make top 5 in possibly having to compete with clubs who stuck two fingers up at the Junior movers and labelled them as "defectors", hence my preference for a 16 team First Division and let the new entrants join at tier 8.

It would be good, before the end of the year, if we knew a clear plan A, plan B, plan C for the following season depending on various scenarios;

1. No new entrants.

2. New entrants upto a certain number.

3. New entrants over a certain number.

 

[FairWeatherFan]

If the Lowland Super league been introduced in the juniors, would the East Region have stuck with 1-1-2?

Because that's the truer comparison in all of this.

With clubs being promoted to the Lowland. In the long term the EoS Premier is going to be a mixed Super/Premier and an EoS First will be a mixed Premier/District league. Which is why the idea of 2 region wide leagues might not be seen as favourable.

[Burnie_man]

5 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:

If the Lowland Super league been introduced in the juniors, would the East Region have stuck with 1-1-2?

Because that's the truer comparison in all of this.

With clubs being promoted to the Lowland. In the long term the EoS Premier is going to be a mixed Super/Premier and an EoS First will be a mixed Premier/District league. Which is why the idea of 2 region wide leagues might not be seen as favourable.

Most Junior clubs liked the East Region Premierleague as it was a strong league below the Superleague and provided 15 home league games a season. There was an attempt to abolish it at last years ERJFA AGM and go to three regional leagues below the Superleague, but it was roundly defeated. 

If you take out the Tayside clubs the "wrong side" of the HL/LL line, then a 16 team "First Division" will largely consist of Fife and Lothians clubs anyway so the need for regionalisation isn't really there at tier 7.  Clubs are used to that sort of travel.

16 LL - 16 EoS Premier - 16 EoS First, then tier 8 regional (North/South?).  Personally, that would be my aim for at least 2020-2021 if things go as expected, if not before.  Nothing ever goes as expected though!

 

[sponsorsladdie]

I’d think it would be down to numbers. Until these are known I doubt a decision could be made.

16 premier is the only known.

I’d hope that there would be enough teams joining to operate leagues of 14 or 16 below this.

[FairWeatherFan]

7 minutes ago, sponsorsladdie said:

I’d think it would be down to numbers. Until these are known I doubt a decision could be made.

16 premier is the only known.

I’d hope that there would be enough teams joining to operate leagues of 14 or 16 below this.

There should be. Chances are you'll only need 5 applicants to get to 2x14 at tier 7. And I'd be shocked if there isn't double figures applying next year.