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Early league predictions


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1. Raith
2. Arbroath
3. Dumbarton
4. Airdrie
5. East Fife
6. Montrose
7. Forfar
8. Stranraer
9. Brechin
10. Stenhousemuir

I think in the end Raith will win it fairly comfortably. History suggests that the full-time sides in this league have a massive advantage and I think that will show in the end. Expect them to secure a couple of decent loan signings in early August and I'd consider Vaughan the best player in the league.

The battle for second will be a 3 way race between ourselves, Arbroath and Airdrie. Arbroath to pip us both due to their settled squad and Stone Cold Dick Campbells experience. If anyone dares take that 2nd spot away from him he will enter the field of play and stomp a mud hole in their ass.

Montrose will be the surprise package for me. I wouldn't say the squad is hugely impressive but they have, what appears to be, a very decent gaffer and we know all too well what a good manager can do with an average squad (see Murray, Ian).

I think Brechin will struggle after last season and I'm not convinced with Dods at all. I'm also not convinced their board will act quickly should it start to go tits up early doors. (No doubt Brechin will now finish above us and make me look like a fool).

Tbh most of this is total guess work at the minute, it looks like it could be a really tight league this year.
If Ayr finish 9th then we'd have the exact same play off teams and semi finals as 2012. A similar outcome would do me!
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If Ayr finish 9th then we'd have the exact same play off teams and semi finals as 2012. A similar outcome would do me!


Rangers dying and 3rd and 4th both going up, 2nd place staying where they are. [emoji34]

Keen for Rangers dying again mind you.
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1 - Raith Rovers: Would have won the league more often than not with the squad they had last year and have possibly marginally improved it this season. They look like they've fixed the problem goalie position and Wedderburn, Milne, Gillespie and Duggan look to be very good signings. Might huff and puff a bit again at times and I'm expecting another tight race with them and Dumbarton, but they should have enough to go one better this season.

2 - Dumbarton: A pretty mixed bag of signings, Forbes and Ballantyne seem like excellent acquisitions, Ross Perry and Andy Little seem a little strange and the rest look like good solid signings at L1 level. Add that to the quality they already have and they should be pushing for the league. I found it hard to pick a winner between them and Raith.

3 - Arbroath: Don't look to be significantly weakened from the squad that finished 4th last season, apart from losing Scott Martin. Thomson, Toshney and Graham look like decent signings so I'm expecting more of the same from Arbroath. They looked a very good team on their day. I'm not sure they'll have the consistency to go all the way though.

4 - Airdrie: It's been a busy summer at Airdrie. I think Findlay's recruited very well, bringing in mostly players who're proven at this level. They could well push for the league but I've placed them last out of the top 4 because I'm not sure they have the same individual quality as Dumbarton or Raith and their squad isn't as settled as Arbroath's. They've got possibly the greatest depth to their squad though, which could be key when injuries and suspensions inevitably kick in.

5 - Forfar Athletic: they look like they've improved significantly on last season. Baird, Reilly and Meechan look like good signings. I think they look similar in quality to ourselves but I'm putting them ahead due to carrying a bit more goal threat. They look a little bit off the fairly obvious pre-season top 4 though.

6 - East Fife: Our defence looks like it should be a lot more solid than it was last year. Long, Dunlop and Meggatt are good additions. The midfield looks fairly solid too but I don't think we've got enough goals in us to make a realistic play-off push. A lot will depend on how Court and Dowds step up to being first choice strikers at this level and of Kevin Smith can stay fit enough over the season. We should be able to grind out enough wins over the lesser teams to be safe but I can see too many odd-goal defeats and low scoring draws where we should probably have got the win on the balance of play to keep up from being further up. 

7 - Montrose: On paper, I'd definitely have Montrose down in the bottom 2 to be honest. But Stewart Petrie has a bunch of, mostly, individually unremarkable players formed into a very impressive team recently. Dillon is obviously class at the back and the group of L2 jobbers in front of him seem to be much more than the sum of their parts under Petrie. Solid, organised and hard working, they won't threaten the play off spots but if they keep doing what they're doing, should survive. They've lost a bit of quality in Ballantyne, Milne and Templeman and if they're not replaced I would worry that once the injuries kick in, they could struggle however.

8 - Stranraer: I'm not 100% about this one. They seem to have lost quite a few good players and I don't think the replacements are up to the same standard. I'd imagine Beith, Robertson, Neill and Agnew will be missed. Mark Lamont will be a good signing if he stays fit and Donnelly impressed me at Queen's Park last year.  Could easily push for a play off spot to be honest but I think they'll struggle.

9 - Brechin City: Last season was obviously abysmal even when you factor in the severe financial disadvantage they faced in the Championship. We've seen enough teams pass straight through L1 in recent years to suggest this could be a tough season for Brechin. Sean Burns and Dougie Hill seem good enough signings, the rest seem like unknowns or slightly bizarre signings like Dene Shields. The likes of McLean, Burns, McGeever and Hill should form a solid defence at this level but I'd be worried they're looking short in midfield and up front if I was a Brechin fan. Depends what these French/Italian lads are like and if Shields can roll back the clock 10 years I suppose.

10 - Stenhousemuir: Last season wasn't exactly overly impressive from the Warriors and I'm not sure they've strengthened over the summer from the squad that finished 4th in League Two last season. Harry Paton will obviously be a big loss for them and the Ross's Dunlop and Meechan also seem like they'll be missed in defence. Morgyn Neill and Greame Smith seem like solid L1 signings but the rest smack of mid-range L2 type signings. I doubt they'll be cut adrift at the bottom but they look like a decent enough L2 squad in all areas of the park and that will probably tell over the season.

 

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I made my predictions ages ago but having seen some of the signings I'm revising them a wee bit.

1 - Dumbarton: Really impressed with the signings Aitken has made. Forbes, Loy, Dowie, Paton, Barr should all be really good players at this level and with Aitken having had a couple of good seasons in the league with Stranraer I'd expect him to have his team well prepared for a tough season. The only questions I have about Dumbarton is how Aitken will approach games. You'd expect Dumbarton to be playing attacking and exciting football what with the numerous options going forward but Aitken has always been more cautious so that'll be interesting to see.

2 - Arbroath: Doing the right thing by keeping their squad together and adding a few upgrades on last season. Campbell is a veteran at this level and knows the league inside out so I'm expecting Arbroath to challenge Dumbarton all the way but fall with a handful of games left. 

3 - Raith Rovers: In normal circumstances I'd have the only FT team in the league as dead certs to win it but it's never straightforward. They came within a goalpost of winning it last season but I don't think they'll be as close this season. They've made a few very good signings on paper in Wedderburn, Gillespie and Duggan however it's up to Smith to make sure he gets the team playing well and I can't see it happening. Another play-off defeat looms

4 - Airdrie: They've made loads of very good League One signings in Robertson, Crighton, Page, Wilkie and McIntosh and I expect them to be solid but unspectacular. If Duffy and Carrick can get them firing them they'll do ok but if one or both get injured then they will struggle. Finish 4th and shithouse their way through the playoffs to promotion. Unless they come up against the Super in which case it'll be another season in League One. 

5 - Forfar Athletic: Another well organised team that'll rely on a few individuals for goals. Will start the season flying but an injury to Baird will result in them dropping out the play-offs.

6 - Stranraer: Made a few decent signings like Cummins, Layne and Smith but it'll be another "meh" season for Stinlar. Will likely struggle for 6 months but eventually find their feet around January time. 

7 - Montrose: Petrie will do well to keep Montrose up and consolidate for next season. Lewis Milne is a big miss though.

8 - East Fife: Poor season for EF will result in a change of manager halfway through the season to avoid relegation. Highlight of the season will be a win over Raith.

9 - Brechin City: Dodds is shite. The hedge is shite. Brechin are shite. Relegation in the playoffs.

10 - Stenhousemuir: McGuigan will do ok but he won't be enough to prevent Stenny finishing bottom of the pile. 

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May as well have a go at this now so I can look back and laugh in 10 months time.

1 - Raith Rovers - For me full-time will see them through fairly comfortably (around 10 points). If they have everyone fit I think it's the best squad in the league, obviously keeping everyone fit has been an issue for Raith in recent seasons, but I still think they'll be champions come May.

2 - Arbroath - I toyed with putting Dumbarton here, and I do think we have a great shout for second, but ultimately I think when injuries and suspensions kick in for us we'll struggle to maintain the form required to push the top two spots. Whilst I wasn't overly impressed with Arbroath in our play-off games, Dick Campbell is a consistent performer at these levels and he has built good depth to that Arbroath squad. If they've got a couple of loans to come in then I think they'll secure second place.

3 - Dumbarton - As I've said above, I think we do have a first 11 capable of even winning this league, but our squad isn't very deep with quality. One injury or suspension in defence significantly weakens us, one injury to Loy up front and we're depending on one guy again. If we can keep the key players fit then we should have the quality to beat anyone in the league but I ultimately feel we'll fall a wee bit short.

4 - Stranraer - I think there will be a surprise this season and I'm plumping for Stranraer. I can't really tell you why, they will have very little pressure on them after last seasons financial troubles and I think Faz is a good gaffer. Looking at their squad on paper you probably aren't too scared but I think they'll be a difficult team to beat.

5 - Forfar - Look to have good options going forward but I think their defence will ultimately mean they come up short.

6 - Airdrie - Seem to be tipped by most to make the top 4 and with them having the biggest squad in the league I understand why, but I remain unconvinced looking at their squad.  I admit, I haven't seen many of their players, so I'm basing this on f**k all, but there you go - 6th for Airdrie.

7 - East Fife - Look fine at the back and have decent enough options in midfield but non-existent in attack. Uninspiring season, probably costing Young his job.

8 - Montrose - Seem to have an excellent team spirit and work ethic which I think will see them safe.

9 - Brechin - So much negativity flying around the Glebe now and some strange signings made by Dods. I expect Dods won't get long if they start off very badly and they could well turn their season around, but based on their squad currently I think it could be another long season for Brechin.

10 - Stenny - Difficult to see anyone other than Stenny for bottom spot. Not convinced they've improved their squad enough to stay up. I hope I'm wrong as they have some top posters on here and I always enjoyed my trips to Ochilview.

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1. Raith rovers
2. Dumbarton
3. Arbroath
4. Airdrie
5. East fife
6. Forfar
7. Stranraer
8. Montrose
9. Stenhousemuir
10. Brechin

Think it’ll be 3 groups top 3 going for the league 4th to 7th for the last play off place and 8th and 9th close with 10th detached at the bottom

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1 Raith Rovers  -  obviously should win it!

2 Airdrie - should be main challengers, good signings.

3 Arbroath - settled side

4 East Fife - good team just short of a striker

5 Dumbarton - saw them at Spartans and not impressed!

6 Forfar - saw them last week and not impressed

7 Stranraer - could surprise actually. decent betfred cup performances

8 Montrose - good team, deserved to win League 2 last season

9 Brechin - another relegation probably. Very poor last year

10 Stenhoosemuir - Just not good enough for this step up.

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1-4 Raith, Dumbarton, Arbroath, Airdrie

I think Raith will be in contention, but I've seen too many FT sides stink out this division (Airdrie and Dunfermline being notable examples) to suggest they are a shoo-in. Airdrie have been garbage for years and managed to consistently finish midtable; with the good signings this summer we should be able to improve on that. The question mark is in the dugout. Dumbarton or Arbroath could easily win it .

5-8 Forfar, Stranraer, East Fife, Montrose

I think the Angus sides might end up taking too many points off each other and become too focused on the derbies at the expense of the other games, or I might have put Forfar in the group above. Stranraer and East Fife are generally solid sides. I've never seen Montrose play a single game in their entire history so this is a total punt, but the jump from League 2 to League 1 isn't massive so they should do OK.

9-10 Stenny, Brechin

Stenny will probably take 9 points off us, but could struggle against everyone else. This is a surprisingly easy division to fall straight through and Brechin's League Cup results aren't encouraging.

Of course this could turn out to be nonsense. Last year this division was easy to call (Ayr / Raith, then the rest with Queens Park and Albion Rovers likely to be near the bottom). Bit trickier this time.

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1. Airdrie 

2. Raith

3. Arbroath 

4. Dumbarton 

5. Farfar 

6. East Fife 

7. Montrose 

8. Stranraer

9. Stenhousemuir 

10 . Brechin 

We ll be rock bottom as we make no bloody attempt to attack in games . 

Airdrie Champ s as they ve assembled a strong squad .

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Decided to do something a little bit different. Instead of predicting what might happen I've written exactly what does happen. It initially started as a post on here, but it got far too big - so I've planted it on my website.

I should point out that the first four sections were written before the weekend...so I think we've already lost our pre-season optimism. As always, if I've made any typos (however glaring) please publicly shame me.

http://talesfromtherock.weebly.com/home/what-definitely-happens-in-scottish-league-one

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Decided to do something a little bit different. Instead of predicting what might happen I've written exactly what does happen. It initially started as a post on here, but it got far too big - so I've planted it on my website.
I should point out that the first four sections were written before the weekend...so I think we've already lost our pre-season optimism. As always, if I've made any typos (however glaring) please publicly shame me.
http://talesfromtherock.weebly.com/home/what-definitely-happens-in-scottish-league-one


9th! Thanks for the optimism. I believe the squad this season is stronger than last and we still have Mark Docherty and Scott Linton to come back in after injury too. We shouldn’t be too far away from the promotion play offs.
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9 minutes ago, Mon_The_Fife said:

9th! Thanks for the optimism. I believe the squad this season is stronger than last and we still have Mark Docherty and Scott Linton to come back in after injury too. We shouldn’t be too far away from the promotion play offs.

 

Sparky and Linton might mean that your penalty conversion statistics rocket, but I can't see where the goals are coming from - unless Dowds is able to replicate his rocket from the weekend consistently.

In saying that it's utterly pointless predicting anything at this stage in the season. Which is exactly why I spent an hour doing just that ;)

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Sparky and Linton might mean that your penalty conversion statistics rocket, but I can't see where the goals are coming from - unless Dowds is able to replicate his rocket from the weekend consistently.
In saying that it's utterly pointless predicting anything at this stage in the season. Which is exactly why I spent an hour doing just that [emoji6]


With Duggan now gone, it means Kevin Smith should hopefully be played in a more attacking role and Young has had us playing with 2 upfront. A lot certainly depends on keeping Smith fit but Dowds has looked very impressive in the last 2 games. Saying that, a lot of clubs will be in the same boat when injuries/suspensions kick in with key players.
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