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Minimum Alcohol Pricing


scottsdad

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5 minutes ago, razamanaz said:

So, in other words, the SNP are in complete compliance with the current legislation regarding selling, promotion & advertising of alcoholic drinks?

That's not really the gotcha you thought it was, was it.

Still, it's nice to know that the SNP's online shop is attracting so much interest.

 

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54 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Another example of statistics being (mis)used to show a point.

Quote

Researchers also found that significant reductions in deaths wholly attributable to alcohol consumption were greatest for men and for those living in the 40% most socio-economically deprived areas of Scotland.

The idea that these people have simply stopped drinking as much (and not replaced their alcohol intake with anything else) seems incredibly unlikely to me.

Anecdotally, I feel like young people today do drink less than 10+ years ago. But i'm not sure that has anything to do with MUP.

They also take way more gear, incidentally, but that's another story.

Edited by Todd_is_God
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As always, the details in the headline miss out important aspects from within the study. from the discussion:

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We found potential indications that MUP was associated with a worsening of acute outcomes for deaths and hospitalisations wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. These findings are in contrast to findings from previous observational studies.12
Acute outcomes are a relatively small proportion of alcohol harms, around 5% of alcohol-specific deaths in Scotland, and these estimates therefore had a large degree of associated uncertainty.3
However, the findings were consistent across almost all subgroups. One identified plausible mechanism was that some subgroups reduced their spending on food or lowered their food intake due to the financial pressures of the policy being implemented, which might have led to faster intoxication or poisoning.39

This has been raised here before. The absolute hardcore alcoholics just stop spending money on things like food and electricity to keep drinking, worsening the outcomes for them.

And also

Quote

Published estimates have indicated a recent worsening in alcohol-specific mortality in both Scotland and England.2
Our study period did not include these recent data. However, the increase in the rate in Scotland from 2020 to 2021 (4%) was lower than in England (7%). It is therefore unlikely that the inclusion of more recent data would have altered our main findings.

This comes from the bottom graph here. The "trend" shows an upward trajectory in deaths in both Scotland and England since 2020.

gr1.jpg

This is a model - a statistical analysis of likelihoods. I'm not saying it is wrong; I'm just saying that putting hard numbers (eg 156 deaths per year) on this is a little bit spurious.

Now, onto the deaths - we know that we are still in a period of excess deaths post-pandemic. We're getting into the Covid territory of: did these people die of alcohol related diseases, or with alcohol related diseases? In other words, an alcoholic who dies because of Covid will be included here. Conversely, an alcoholoc who dies due to his alcohol related illness but within 28 days of a positive Covid test will also count as a Covid death.

Next, take hospitalisations:

gr2.jpg

A huge drop for both countries in April/May 2020 as hospitals simply stopped admitting people. The graph shows a clear dip, but a much deeper one in Scotland. The fact that NHS Scotland admitted fewer people here than NHS England is a driver in these statistical analyses. To be fair in the study they do discuss the fact that the pandemic with various Covid restrictions blurs their control group somewhat.

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3 hours ago, Cairn Terrier said:

 

This is a nonsense post. MUP has very little impact on the price of alcohol that most of us on this forum probably drink.

It impacted almost exclusively the cheap gut rot super lagers and ciders that the majority of people who drank them regularly did so as a form of escapism.

If you genuinely believe that that demographic have A) reduced their alcohol intake and B) not replaced it with something else then I feel you are being incredibly naïve.

Scotland has an enormous problem with drug misuse - with deaths almost tripling since 2013. It's burying your head in the sand stuff to suggest that the banning of drinks promos and supermarket multibuys, then later introducing MUP, is not contributing to that. 

 

Edited by Todd_is_God
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7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is a nonsense post. MUP has very little impact on the price of alcohol that most of us on this forum probably drink.

It impacted almost exclusively the cheap gut rot super lagers and ciders that the majority of people who drank them regularly did so as a form of escapism.

If you genuinely believe that that demographic have A) reduced their alcohol intake and B) not replaced it with something else then I feel you are being incredibly naïve.

Scotland has an enormous problem with drug misuse - with deaths almost tripling since 2013. It's burying your head in the sand stuff to suggest that the banning of drinks promos and supermarket multibuys, then later introducing MUP, is not contributing to that. 

 

I became a crack head because I could no longer get three bottles of electric white for the price of two is quite the take 🤪

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7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is a nonsense post. MUP has very little impact on the price of alcohol that most of us on this forum probably drink.

It impacted almost exclusively the cheap gut rot super lagers and ciders that the majority of people who drank them regularly did so as a form of escapism.

If you genuinely believe that that demographic have A) reduced their alcohol intake and B) not replaced it with something else then I feel you are being incredibly naïve.

Scotland has an enormous problem with drug misuse - with deaths almost tripling since 2013. It's burying your head in the sand stuff to suggest that the banning of drinks promos and supermarket multibuys, then later introducing MUP, is not contributing to that. 

 

Welcome to the exclusive down voting club! I think this is the fourth time I’ve used that function.

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Tougher measures are needed to tackle the highest level of alcohol-related deaths for more than a decade, medical experts have said.

More than 30 charities and public health bodies called for better access to recovery services and an increase in the minimum price of alcohol.


They also want to see more restrictions on alcohol marketing.


It comes a day after First Minister Humza Yousaf confirmed a proposed crackdown had been paused.


He said the proposals to restrict alcohol advertising, especially to young people, had caused real concern to an industry which was already facing challenges.


Mr Yousaf said he had instructed officials to take the ideas back to the drawing board and work towards a new set of proposals.


Figures from 2021, the last year available, show 1,245 people died from conditions caused by alcohol, the highest level since 2008.


Experts believe restricted services and isolation were factors in a spike in alcohol deaths during the Covid pandemic.

 

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Ah yes, MUP didn't work, not because it is a shite idea, but because it wasn't expensive enough...

Why don't they try understanding and tackling the root causes of Scotland's alcohol use rather than just make it more expensive for everyone?

EDIT weren't they crowing recently about how successful it had been? It can't be both.

Edited by Todd_is_God
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