The Ultimate Super Ayr Thread

[Finlay21]

13 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Aye, I hadn't bothered looking at QoS's ppg to be fair. I'm surprised AJ is still there but he has a habit of pulling a run out of nowhere. I thought you lot were dead last season and you ended up pulling away and fizzled out at the end of the season.

Looking at our remaining games and our results first time round is not pleasant reading either. I make it 8 points for Ayr.

Does someone not normally work out the probabilities of relegation/playoffs/promotion etc.? I think it's a Thistle fan. Is it @Fuctifano? I'd be interested to see how that looks especially with the league split in 2 as it is between top 5 bottom 5.

Don’t see why we would be judging points in previous performances , teams are now in different shapes and current form  , Raith Inverness seem to be deteriorating Dunfermline beginning to steady  the ship and Morton on a decent run , we have performed better in last 3 league games , looking at the positives we are still only 3 points of 6th with really only Morton showing any signs of consistency in the bottom 5 , some times focusing on the positives brings positivity to the team ,

Edited February 6, 2022 by Finlay21

[Guest Flash]

2 minutes ago, Finlay21 said:

Don’t see why we would be judging points in previous performances , teams are now in different shapes and current form  , Raith Inverness seem to be deteriorating Dunfermline beginning to steady  the ship and Morton on a decent run , we have performed better in last 3 league games , looking at the positives we are still only 3 points of 6th with really only Morton showing any signs of consistency in the bottom 5 

Aye, it is far from being scientific. As you say, some teams are better than they were, some worse. But it could all even out. So, you might drop points against teams you beat before and pick up points where you lost before. Of course, Ayr have a different manager, so that has to be factored in as well. Depressingly, we don’t and the January signings look to have made us worse. So, I can’t see how we’re getting enough points to overtake anybody.

[Mod1967]

Sorry Robbo not seeing a massive improvement and results do need to massively improve 

[bazka6]

53 minutes ago, AUFC 1910 said:

Got to play Ashford and Adeloye on Wednesday.

Its a free hit.

Just go for it.

Is it though, would you be happy getting pumped in the knowledge we had a go? I possibly would but a draw and the odd point could be priceless, geez even goal difference.

[Trogdor]

4 minutes ago, Finlay21 said:

Don’t see why we would be judging points in previous performances , teams are now in different shapes and current form  , Raith Inverness seem to be deteriorating Dunfermline beginning to steady  the ship and Morton on a decent run , we have performed better in last 3 league games , looking at the positives we are still only 3 points of 6th with really only Morton showing any signs of consistency in the bottom 5 , some times focusing on the positives brings positivity to the team ,

There's limitations to any way you use to predict future performance. It's another comparator and means of extrapolating performance. I purely did the exercise to compare to Flash's data for QoS. I prefer PPG which is why I used it but its not an exact science either. Nothing is but both point to us needing to improve and improve quickly. 

[Finlay21]

1 minute ago, Mod1967 said:

Sorry Robbo not seeing a massive improvement and results do need to massively improve 

Last time we played Partick we lost 4-0 last time we played Dunfermline we lost 3-0 , so it’s either we have progressed or both those teams have regressed , 

[North British]

It’s stating the obvious but two games against QoS are massive , win both of those and it’s unlikely that we would finish below Queens . As everyone has already said we need to find a way of playing two forwards . Ashford leads the line well and would be a perfect fit for a partnership with Tomi . Hopefully we can get a 442 on the field before it’s too late .

[Finlay21]

1 minute ago, Trogdor said:

There's limitations to any way you use to predict future performance. It's another comparator and means of extrapolating performance. I purely did the exercise to compare to Flash's data for QoS. I prefer PPG which is why I used it but its not an exact science either. Nothing is but both point to us needing to improve and improve quickly. 

Cant disagree with your point , we do need to turn these draws into wins and must between now and end of season take points off the teams around us 

[Mod1967]

I'm led to believe Bullen has lifted the place, most players happier, training far better, but he must get us to attack occasional draws won't save us, the current form check banded about covers 6 games and looks decent, they include the 2 games under White and Tait Bullens form check is miserable, let's all hope he changes it.

[Calayrdonia]

I just feel that we can at times get dragged into thinking that things are better because we have played less worse or gotten beat by less goals than before. That's not going to help us unless we start scoring goals which we can't seem to do at the moment. Our goals per game is shocking at the moment.

He needs to get the Adeloye situation sorted and he needs to do it right now. Whatever you think of his workrate, at this level he scores goals and we don't seem to have anyone else that does. 

I was on the fence with the Bullen appointment, purely because I had no real idea who he was but the feeling from everyone was good and so I was happy enough to get right behind him and wish for the best. I haven't changed that thought process, but since he has taken over, I haven't really seen anything from him tactical set up, team selection, decision making, (apparent) man management with Tomi (no idea what he's like with other players), or his results record to give me any confidence whatsoever that we will beat the drop. The hope I hold out for is the new signings are good enough to drag us over the line.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Calayrdonia

[Mod1967]

11 minutes ago, Finlay21 said:

Last time we played Partick we lost 4-0 last time we played Dunfermline we lost 3-0 , so it’s either we have progressed or both those teams have regressed , 

Think Partick have definitely regressed as have we in our last 4 league games 

[Finlay21]

Just now, Mod1967 said:

I'm led to believe Bullen has lifted the place, most players happier, training far better, but he must get us to attack occasional draws won't save us, the current form check banded about covers 6 games and looks decent, they include the 2 games under White and Tait Bullens form check is miserable, let's all hope he changes it.

The Arbroath result was down to Bullen he picked the team and made the subs , David White was not at the Friday session and was not even  at that game 

[Mod1967]

Well he needs to re find his own form then 

[Guest Flash]

8 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

There's limitations to any way you use to predict future performance. It's another comparator and means of extrapolating performance. I purely did the exercise to compare to Flash's data for QoS. I prefer PPG which is why I used it but its not an exact science either. Nothing is but both point to us needing to improve and improve quickly. 

Link below to a good site for form and stats. You can paddle about in there looking at lots of different things, including the ppg of the teams everybody has to play (on the run-in tab underneath the league table). There’s loads of depressing stuff if you look for it.

Soccerstats

[Richey Edwards]

Seen on Twitter that it's 20 years ago today since Ayr beat Hibs in the League Cup Semi-Final thanks to an Eddie Annand penalty.

Which also means that it's 20 years ago today that I moved to Scotland. My dad was in the army so we lived in Germany and England when I was a kid. I still supported Ayr though, I just very seldom got to go to games. My Papa used to post me the matchday programmes every week.

I watched the game on the telly at my Grandparents house. I charged around their house like a madman when that penalty went in. It was fantastic scenes.

Although we weren't actually at the game, it is one of my favourite memories of watching the football with my Papa.

My Papa used so say "I hope we win just one major trophy before I die". I now say the same thing. I doubt it will happen though.

[Fuctifano]

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

 

Does someone not normally work out the probabilities of relegation/playoffs/promotion etc.? I think it's a Thistle fan. Is it @Fuctifano? I'd be interested to see how that looks especially with the league split in 2 as it is between top 5 bottom 5.

Edit - screwed up the maths.

Slight tweak to the formula this year which means teams lose / gain rating quicker. As always though I'll caveat this by saying it's primarily designed to try and work out how many points are likely for safety / playoffs and the team %s are a ballpark guide as can't take into account injuries, morale,  new signings, idiot managers etc. 

Attached both the table as at today's date and also on Christmas Day which shows how much Morton have turned it around.

The number on far left column is the team rating, and the numbers next to 4th and 8th are the "more often than not / 90% of the time" points totals, so for 8th 36 points will be safe more often than not and 39 points will be safe more than 90% of the time, think 44 points was the absolute safety number.

edit: %s don't always add up to 100 due to rounding

Edited February 6, 2022 by Fuctifano

[Guest]

Stats are all fine and well but are just a snapshot in time and don't tell "full story's" such as opposition cards, bad refereeing, human beings making poor split second decisions etc, in fact if I'm honest the biggest load of bollocks that I've seen more and more recently is this "expected goals" nonsense that Sky can't tell us enough about.

Ultimately it's about consistency and performance on the day, taking your chances when they fall, cutting out the stupid mistakes and hoping the referee isn't a complete dick !!

Of course the opposition could just be better but then again that's football.........

[HMIP]

1 hour ago, Finlay21 said:

Last time we played Partick we lost 4-0 last time we played Dunfermline we lost 3-0 , so it’s either we have progressed or both those teams have regressed , 

Or maybe the pitch at Firhill has completely disintegrated and this time round we played Dunfermline in awful conditions.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Calayrdonia said:

I just feel that we can at times get dragged into thinking that things are better because we have played less worse or gotten beat by less goals than before. That's not going to help us unless we start scoring goals which we can't seem to do at the moment. Our goals per game is shocking at the moment.

He needs to get the Adeloye situation sorted and he needs to do it right now. Whatever you think of his workrate, at this level he scores goals and we don't seem to have anyone else that does. 

I was on the fence with the Bullen appointment, purely because I had no real idea who he was but the feeling from everyone was good and so I was happy enough to get right behind him and wish for the best. I haven't changed that thought process, but since he has taken over, I haven't really seen anything from him tactical set up, team selection, decision making, (apparent) man management with Tomi (no idea what he's like with other players), or his results record to give me any confidence whatsoever that we will beat the drop. The hope I hold out for is the new signings are good enough to drag us over the line.

He doesn't score goals when he doesn't get opportunities and the whole point is that we're not creating enough for anyone.

Tomi is a good striker (possibly our best), however I think some are building him up to be something that's a bit of a myth here. It's all very well thinking back to him scoring but I can also think back to umpteen games where he's done absolutely nothing other than mope around moaning about challenges and refereeing decisions before trudging off in a huff.

As I say, I like him as a player but he really needs to sort out his body language on the pitch as it doesn't exactly lift those around him.

[UpInTheAyr]

1 hour ago, Finlay21 said:

Last time we played Partick we lost 4-0 last time we played Dunfermline we lost 3-0 , so it’s either we have progressed or both those teams have regressed , 

So we turned a loss into a loss, albeit by a smaller margin, and a loss into a draw. By that rate of progression we should have a reasonable mid table team by the 2024/25 season.