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The Ultimate Super Ayr Thread


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7 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Likewise, I couldn't be bothered either. 

I'll take Skyline's analysis over Richard Gordon's any day of the week. 

Maybe Richard Gordon thinks you are unlikely to beat Stranraer outright. 😉

If you do fail to do so, or if Hamilton drop points to either Albion or Stranraer, then he's right. But if Accies win both games and Ayr do too it's highly likely Ayr will go through as one of the best 4 runners up. In fact it's conceivable that Accies win both games and finish 2nd and don't go through if they win them both narrowly as they are on a negative GD right now. Ayr though are bound to be at least +4 with 9 pts so would either win the group or be one of the better runners up barring big wins for both of Arbroath or Elgin and Alloa.

Edited by Skyline Drifter
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2 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Maybe Richard Gordon thinks you are unlikely to beat Stranraer outright. 😉

If you do fail to do so, or if Hamilton drop points to either Albion or Stranraer, then he's right. But if Accies win both games and Ayr do too it's highly likely Ayr will go through as one of the best 4 runners up.

Some of us are still sore from them beating us on penalties in the final game of the League Cup group stages last season. There better not be a repeat! 😳

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On 08/11/2020 at 00:26, rb123! said:

What's our thoughts on the boy Reading? Been okay but certainly no match to Harvie at this stage, although he did drastically improve in last year at the club so time yet. think it would be fair enough to say he's solid enough in defence but doesn't offer much going forward. Would say his best game i've watched of him was the Partick Thistle friendly where he seemed to be further up the park.

Different type to Harvie and appears a more solid defender a la Liam Smith as opposed to a roving F/B. Personally I've been quite impressed with him so far and have given him a 7+ rating in every match.

On another subject, call me cynical but I'm beginning to think that Cammy Smith has been signed to cover for Walsh as opposed to being an "extra" signing ??

I hope I'm wrong as would love to see a fully fit Walsh and Smith playing in the same side.

PS It looks like Cammy will be over at Augusta this weekend so I've had a wee bet on him at 80/1............

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That's a good result for Stranraer tbf. Didn't see that coming tbh. Means unless Ayr lose to them on Saturday (Which Ayr won't! Touch wood)  then Ayr are in the next round. 

Stranraer have a few players that I thought would have been able to play at a higher level. Good to See Greg Fleming though. 👍 May it be for the wrong team 😂, wouldn't mind him at Somerset again. Part time - Full time must be a killer for some players, such as Fleming and Bell. 

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20 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

So just to update after tonight with more clarity:

Annan's 5-1 win tonight is interesting and means you'll need to win any penalty shoot out with Stranraer to get 2nd but it doesn't really change anything in terms of progress. We'll know more tomorrow after Hamilton have played what your chances of winning the group are. However if you beat Stranraer by one goal you'll finish on 9 points and a GD of +4.

Group A - Hearts have won it. Runner up can't get more than 8 and probably aren't going through.
Group B - Hibs and Dundee already on 9. If they draw then both will finish ahead of you regardless of who wins the shoot out. A Hibs win by 3 or less will also keep both clubs above you. A Dundee win would see you finish better than Hibs though.
Group C - You are guaranteed to finish better than runner up in this one too. St Johnstone beating Peterhead on penalties would see both get 9 but you'd outdo Peterhead on GD. An outright win for either would see them win the group with United 2nd on 8. A Peterhead win on pens would see them win the group and United 2nd also.
Group D - Any Ross County win v Stirling combined with an Arbroath win 3 goals better than you or an Elgin win 4 goals better than you would see two sides finish better but it's a long shot.
Group E - Very likely both Falkirk and Dunfermline will finish better than you.
Group G - There is a scenario where Morton and St Mirren both get to 9 pts but it would need Morton to beat St Mirren on penalties tomorrow and then beat Partick Thistle by 4 goals. Very long shot.
Group H - Livingston will win the group. Alloa need to beat Stenny by at least 4 to finish better than you.

So you're pretty safe if you beat Stranraer in 90 mins. 9 points and +4 will finish above at least the runners up in groups A and C and probably also D, G and H would be worse than you. Anything less though will put you out assuming Hamilton get two wins. A penalty defeat will leave you behind Annan for a start. A penalty win with 8 pts and +3 probably isn't going to do it. It's likely the runner up in groups B, C, D, E and H would all be better.

 

7 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Maybe Richard Gordon thinks you are unlikely to beat Stranraer outright. 😉

If you do fail to do so, or if Hamilton drop points to either Albion or Stranraer, then he's right. But if Accies win both games and Ayr do too it's highly likely Ayr will go through as one of the best 4 runners up. In fact it's conceivable that Accies win both games and finish 2nd and don't go through if they win them both narrowly as they are on a negative GD right now. Ayr though are bound to be at least +4 with 9 pts so would either win the group or be one of the better runners up barring big wins for both of Arbroath or Elgin and Alloa.

There you go, Richard Gordon not so daft after all. Hamilton sell the shirts again (how did you manage to lose to them?). The runner up definitely won't qualify from your group now. You can forget all that calculation above.

For Ayr it's simple. Must beat Stranraer. Annan are out as a result of Stranraer winning outright tonight. Someone in the Ayr v Stranraer game has to get to 8 points. Winner takes all to win the group. Loser doesn't even get 2nd.

Edited by Skyline Drifter
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39 minutes ago, rb123! said:

Not going to lie i'm not exactly too confident for Saturday after our performance combined with that result for Stranraer, still have nightmares of last year at this same situation!!!

 

9 minutes ago, mugen_power said:

Stinlar will up their game against us like usual...need to be ready for that

not gonna happen donald trump GIF by Election 2016

Listen to the Donald, even if we lose we actually won!

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1 hour ago, Lochwood said:

Winner takes all then, think this will be very tasty on Saturday , they only had four subs tonight so we’ll done the Stranraer, if that doesent get Rice sacked tonight nothing will.

They only had 5 players in their squad tonight who were regular first team players , they underestimated Stranraer massively playing an almost reserve side and it backfired on them , I can’t see us not defeating them on Saturday Ayr 3-1 

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8 hours ago, Robbo63 said:

They only had 5 players in their squad tonight who were regular first team players , they underestimated Stranraer massively playing an almost reserve side and it backfired on them , I can’t see us not defeating them on Saturday Ayr 3-1 

At the same time though it’s quite plausible they decided to drop half their team after getting embarrassed at the weekend! 

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Pretty sure Accies played a shadow team against Annan as well.  Not sure what they’re playing at as it just means more defeats and pressure being heaped on them.  No idea what you’re going to get from Ayr at the moment so who knows how Saturday will go.

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