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The Ultimate Super Ayr Thread


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2 hours ago, ayrunitedfw said:

There is a certainly an arguement to be had  on whether Bullen should continue next season if we were to miss out on the playoffs given we’ve been top 3 for vast majority of season and it would mean we have bottled it completely.

There is no doubt we have improved massively under Bullen but the alternatives were Bullen, Duffy and to a lesser extent Kerr who most fans have would say we’re up there as our worst ever managers. We have also been financially backed this season and fair play to Smith for that. I reckon we’ll have a bigger budget than Arbroath, Cove, Raith, Morton, Hamilton and given their financial issues possibly even ICT so given that factor we’ve probably currently only over achieving by one position.

Fingers crossed something clicks in the remaining games and we can do something special because given the quality of the league this season this is the best chance we’ll have in years. The league will be stronger next season, of that there is little doubt. 
 

 

I think you definitely did have a bigger budget than Morton in the Summer but since our partnership with Dalrada was announced mid August we've added Liam Grimshaw,  Robbie Crawford,  Efe Ambrose, Calvin Miller, George Oakley, Ally Roy, Ali Crawford and Calum Waters.

Also handed out contract extensions to various first team players.

Safe to say our budget has increased significantly since July and is probably comparable with Ayr, Inverness etc in the middle ground behind the big 3.

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People keep saying that things have "massively improved" under Bullen. This wasn't true last season, when both statistically and tactically he was nearly identical to his predecessors, and this season was massively, heavily reliant on early performances (and two loanees who were grabbed back at Christmas). Right now it's not looking very much better at all, and the likelihood is that Ayr will be a point off fifth by the final whistles today, and quite possibly as close to sixth as to second. Barring a late change in the rules to say that Ayr can, in fact, play Cove Rangers every week, that sets things up for a very turgid end to the season. And that's not even looking at playing an in-form Falkirk for a trip to Hampden after probably the easiest series of draws in decades.

The backroom situation at the club looks very positive right now. The weak point is how the team is picked and their tactics. It's difficult to say what else could be changed.

Edited by Thumper
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14 hours ago, D'Jaffo said:

People assume that whatever tactic a team follows it’s because that’s what they’ve been told to do. It’s down to limited defenders like McGinty, McAllister and Reading who pump it long because they can’t think of an alternative. 
 

Fwiw the direct approach was fine tonight and nearly got us 3 points if Dipo had his boots on the right feet. 

He gave contracts to nearly all of that defence, so yes he does set us up that way because that's what they give.  

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14 minutes ago, Thumper said:

People keep saying that things have "massively improved" under Bullen. This wasn't true last season, when both statistically and tactically he was nearly identical to his predecessors, and this season was massively, heavily reliant on early performances (and two loanees who were grabbed back at Christmas). 

In what sense? I think you underestimate how dire our ppg was under Hopkin and Duffy. Last I checked Bullen's 2021-2022 season ppg put us mid-table extrapolated across the season.

Things demonstrably have improved under Bullen. I don't think that's happy clappy to say, I think there's just a (probably justifiable) disappointment rippling through the support just now that acknowledges we've improved but that the league title door was (is) wide open this season for a team to go and take it, and we keep tripping ourselves up on the approach.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Venom said:

In what sense? I think you underestimate how dire our ppg was under Hopkin and Duffy. Last I checked Bullen's 2021-2022 season ppg put us mid-table extrapolated across the season.

Bullen's PPM for 2021-22 was 1.17 1.23 over 17 matches (corrected as transfermarkt included a cup game). Hopkin's was 0.8 over 5. Duffy's was 0.84 over 13.

Extrapolate that out over 36 games and yes, that would leave Ayr in sixth with 44 points. But that's only five better off than the real finish, and mostly goes to show that last season there was a huge gulf in quality between the top and bottom halves of the table.

Edited by Thumper
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3 hours ago, Trogdor said:

I'm firmly on the fence with Bullen tbh. 

Me too. To mix a couple of metaphors, I’m  sitting on the fence and I can’t tell which side has the greener grass. On one side (Bullen) I can see green shoots but signs of rot. On the other side (someone else from the managerial merry go round) I’m not even sure there’s any grass. Could even be red ash with broken glass mixed in.

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15 minutes ago, Thumper said:

Bullen's PPM for 2021-22 was 1.17 1.23 over 17 matches (corrected as transfermarkt included a cup game). Hopkin's was 1.05 over 20. Duffy's was 0.93 over 15. So yes, an improvement, but a marginal one at best, and one which didn't statistically affect the final league position (where either Duffy or Hopkin would still have been projected to squeak out eighth).

Extrapolate that out over 36 games and yes, that would leave Ayr in sixth with 44 points. But that's only five better off than the real finish, and mostly goes to show that last season there was a huge gulf in quality between the top and bottom halves of the table.

(Hopkin=37.8, still eighth; Duffy=33.4, relegated. So swapping Duffy was the right call, but it wasn't night and day)

You can't use Hopkin's overall ppg to demonstrate staying up without including Bullen's total ppg too. 

In any case, it's an improvement, no matter which way you slice it. Is it meeting your own expectations? It sounds like it's not and that's fine. I'm disappointed too that we're not roasting this shite division given how the first half of the season went.

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Thought we weren't at it enough last night but I take some consolation in knowing we had the best two chances to win the game and, in our 'keeper, we had one player who was under-employed for most of the game. McAlear is getting there slowly and was far more involved than in previous games and Maguire will add a bit of craft that's been missing at times. Getting Murdy and Frankie back could be crucial especially for the cup game - hopefully they're both up to speed by then. 

Hate to say it but this team do seem to play a lot better on the plastic shite than on the grass at Somerset. Maybe that's something to look forward to at the Falkirk Stadium?      

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Think we need to remember to judge a team over a season and not just 4/5 games , so far this season  we are 

3rd in league 

Scottish Cup 1/4 finals 

3rd in games won 

4th in games drawn

2nd on goal difference 

2nd best in games lost 

nearly every fan would have bit your hand off to be in that position with 11 games to go 

 

 

 

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You're only as good as your past couple of results nowadays and that in itself is a major problem and when rash decisions are made it can easily end up with dire consequences.

It's easy to say that we're now underachieving but given our budget against Dundee and QP and taking their current points total against our own, then it would also be easy to say that both Bowyer and Coyle are most definitely underachieving given they're only 3 or 4 points ahead of us and we've been above them for large parts of the season.

Ultimately it's all just a snapshot in time and issues such as injuries, suspensions, luck, refereeing decisions, fixture congestion (lots of games in a short period) / lack of games (weeks without playing) can all contribute to a drop off in form. 

You also can't quantify confidence or just general form dips of individual players.

From our own perspective there's no doubt at all that our quality of football and the entertainment factor has gone hugely downhill in recent weeks, however I'd partly put that down to us missing Musonda, Murdoch and even O'Connor when he was out and the players lack of confidence also seems to have coincided with us punting it long etc. 

I've said it before but there's no way on earth Smith would even consider replacing Bullen and nor should he as it would be tantamount to sheer lunacy.

Even last night is a prime example, we're away to a team unbeaten in 13 matches and we're currently struggling, so we end up missing a penalty and also an absolute sitter yet some still see it as us not being at the races in the bigger picture, however I'd say if we can hold our own away to a form side, keep a clean sheet and still manage to miss a penalty and a sitter yet come away with a point, then surely Bullen must be doing something right......

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It is a tough one to take when you have been top of the league for so long, to see your team spurn chances, not play well, and start dropping down - no matter what expectations were at the start of the season.

We all love the club and dream of promotion to the top flight, and they say it’s the hope that kills you, hence since the end of last year, this season has been feeling like death by a thousand cuts.

I hope it’s a sticky patch, and that something can snap us out of it (hopefully beating Falkirk) because it could still be an absolutely amazing season - but it does seem it’s at a pivotal point now.

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5 hours ago, itzdrk said:

He gave contracts to nearly all of that defence, so yes he does set us up that way because that's what they give.  

He also signed Musonda whose absence has resulted in an up surge of aimless punts as opposed to actual long range passes. Kirk is also largely fine when it comes to distribution. It’s hard enough to find one defender with good distribution let alone four or five. We’ve been lucky enough to get two in our team but there’s no doubt that Musonda is the player we’ve missed the most all season. Far more than Murdoch in my opinion. 

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I think we'll see a huge change in how we play when Musonda returns. McGinty wins a lot of headers but his distribution from the back is appalling, he either gives it to full back or he launches it. If you add in the absence of Murdoch then you have the perfect shit storm of terrible football. 

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Getting the feeling Bullen is more of a vibes manager than a master tactician, which is probably half the battle of being a manager tbf. The talk on here for months was that we were crying out for a proper assistant to help him out. That all died down when we started winning games but I think we should look at that again.

I imagine the players all like Bullen and the fact he’s inexperienced mean that his ego is not huge allowing Glendinning and Mathie to have the say they’d like. He won’t be going anywhere for a while.

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With the way things are going unless we get our arse in gear and go on a decent run very quickly and start picking up good points again i think we'll struggle to finish top 4.

Still think Bullen will be about for a while as Mathie seems him as part of the long term project. He's also somewhat hindered by being stuck with the likes of McGinty, Reading, McAllister (all defence) which Hopkin signed on long term deals. 

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2 minutes ago, rb123! said:

With the way things are going unless we get our arse in gear and go on a decent run very quickly and start picking up good points again i think we'll struggle to finish top 4.

Still think Bullen will be about for a while as Mathie seems him as part of the long term project. He's also somewhat hindered by being stuck with the likes of McGinty, Reading, McAllister (all defence) which Hopkin signed on long term deals. 

Bullen gave Reading a two year deal (!) and McGinty a one year deal. 

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