Kitty_Boy Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Hypothesis: McCall's strategy of signing promising players released from Aberdeen bigger clubs: Rose, Shankland, Smith, to a lesser extent, McDaid - and them going on to be successful - has led to us being a victim of our own (their) sucess. Bigger clubs are perhaps more reluctant to release players like them, especially if McCall is interested. Consequently, there are fewer players available to sign on a permanent basis or, unlike when we took Rose, I believe Aberdeen effectively have first refusal on Roscoe should he go on to be as successful. Consequently, to follow the same strategy, we have to look at loans instead. Ultimately, if the player's character is right, is there a big difference between taking a player on loan or signing him permantly on a one year contract, when you know if he does well he will be away at the end of the season (like Smith)? Managing to pick up the players we have in recent seasons that fit into the 19-21 year old bracket has been pretty exeptional but will prehaps become even more difficult. Other clubs at our level - subsistance full-time - look down south or abroad or to recruit players - I don't think we are in that market. Alteratively, you're recuiting from the same small pool of domestic full-time players, who job around Championship clubs without much success. tl:dr - I'm fine with loans. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoBNob Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 1 hour ago, WATTOO said: I wouldn't agree at all. We had just come up from League 1 with an unconvincing final day reprieve, there was no guarantees that Shankland was going to perform in the higher league up against full time sides each week, we had also just signed a few young players including an untried goalkeeper and ultimately 8th place was looking like a major success. I'd say we're already having the look of an established Championship side (granted only our second successive season), we're holding our own from a financial perspective, the club's advancing off the pitch with 21st century ticketing etc and we're finding it easier to attract players than we have done in a very long time. No, we're in a much better position now................ But regardless you had just come up from league 1 and didn't lose many (any?) first team players, as such you were then able to maintain the feelgood factor, you had signed Murdoch and Smith, both, especially the latter were regarded as the the top players in there position at this level. Even Harvie was highly regarded after his loan spell at Dumbarton (probably more so than what Roscoe was) and had a solid season at this level under his belt. While nothing in football is guaranteed there was more to suggest that Shankland was going to have a good season than Doolan. The only unknown that you had was Doohan. Compare that to this season where you've lost first teamers Doohan(presently) Rose, Smith, Crawford, McDaid and Shankland. All of them played when fit and it was virtually the spine of the team. You're not coming off a promotion bounce, rather you're coming off the end of what was a turgid end to the season. Winning 5 of the last 17 league games? The same amount as Dunfermline, and you won't have anyone saying we had a good end! It was shocking. That run also coincided with Shankland going off injured and getting rushed back, while many Ayr fans were quite right to say they weren't a one man team he was a pretty important part of it. I'm more than happy to go for a 20 pound charity bet that Ayr do not match the points total from their first half of last season, as an easy measure we'll say until the last game in 2019, with Ayr being in a better state by far now that surely should be free money? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpInTheAyr Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, Grant228 said: I'm more than happy to go for a 20 pound charity bet that Ayr do not match the points total from their first half of last season, as an easy measure we'll say until the last game in 2019, with Ayr being in a better state by far now that surely should be free money? What was our points total at the end of the first half of season? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 What was our points total at the end of the first half of season?I think we had around 35 points by the end of December. Edit: After exactly 18 games we had 34 points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, Grant228 said: But regardless you had just come up from league 1 and didn't lose many (any?) first team players, as such you were then able to maintain the feelgood factor, you had signed Murdoch and Smith, both, especially the latter were regarded as the the top players in there position at this level. Even Harvie was highly regarded after his loan spell at Dumbarton (probably more so than what Roscoe was) and had a solid season at this level under his belt. While nothing in football is guaranteed there was more to suggest that Shankland was going to have a good season than Doolan. The only unknown that you had was Doohan. Compare that to this season where you've lost first teamers Doohan(presently) Rose, Smith, Crawford, McDaid and Shankland. All of them played when fit and it was virtually the spine of the team. You're not coming off a promotion bounce, rather you're coming off the end of what was a turgid end to the season. Winning 5 of the last 17 league games? The same amount as Dunfermline, and you won't have anyone saying we had a good end! It was shocking. That run also coincided with Shankland going off injured and getting rushed back, while many Ayr fans were quite right to say they weren't a one man team he was a pretty important part of it. I'm more than happy to go for a 20 pound charity bet that Ayr do not match the points total from their first half of last season, as an easy measure we'll say until the last game in 2019, with Ayr being in a better state by far now that surely should be free money? You've missed my point. Last season nobody expected us to finish 4th and 8th / 9th was our realistic target, however the fact that we now know that most of our squad are capable of cutting it at this level, coupled with the fact that we have brought a few replacements in for the players we've lost and in addition knowing that we have 2 part time teams in the league on smaller budgets than ourselves all leads me to believe that we are in a far better position than we were at this point last season. Do I think we'll finish 4th or better ? That would be a No, however had you asked me the same question at this point last season, then that would have been an even more resounding NO. The bottom line is, nobody knows, otherwise the bookies would all be bankrupt and football would be a rather boring sport.................. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 51 minutes ago, THEHonestman1910 said: Graeme Miller hinted it on Twitter Cheers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honestly united Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 I think the issue for most Ayr fans this time last year you would have taken 8th (and probably finishing 9th above Alloa was the expectation) as we were the promoted team, and you were looking at fixtures against DU, Ross county, ICT, Falkirk and Thistle would have all been in the top tier recently, so we were looking at picking up points against QoS, Morton and Dunfermline who probably have a slightly better championship pedigree over the last few years. Fast forward to this year, and we now know we are at least on a par with the majority of teams, we've kept together a decent core of players, and although another crack at the title doesn't look likely we should be safely mid table, with hopefully another play off spot (at the top end...) Im more concerned about the season after when we could lose Moff, Kerr, Geggan, Adams and Bell due to their age and have a much bigger rebuilding job for McCall. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, WATTOO said: You've missed my point. Last season nobody expected us to finish 4th and 8th / 9th was our realistic target, however the fact that we now know that most of our squad are capable of cutting it at this level, coupled with the fact that we have brought a few replacements in for the players we've lost and in addition knowing that we have 2 part time teams in the league on smaller budgets than ourselves all leads me to believe that we are in a far better position than we were at this point last season. Do I think we'll finish 4th or better ? That would be a No, however had you asked me the same question at this point last season, then that would have been an even more resounding NO. The bottom line is, nobody knows, otherwise the bookies would all be bankrupt and football would be a rather boring sport.................. You've completely missed his point. Nobody is suggesting you shouldn't be confident you can compete well at this level or any such thing. There were more unknowns a year ago. He's saying you are fundamentally poorer than you were 12 months ago. You can disagree with that if you want but as it happens you appear to be absolutely agreeing with him whilst still sticking a flag in the sand and saying you aren't! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, Kitty_Boy said: Hypothesis: McCall's strategy of signing promising players released from Aberdeen bigger clubs: Rose, Shankland, Smith, to a lesser extent, McDaid - and them going on to be successful - has led to us being a victim of our own (their) sucess. Bigger clubs are perhaps more reluctant to release players like them, especially if McCall is interested. Consequently, there are fewer players available to sign on a permanent basis or, unlike when we took Rose, I believe Aberdeen effectively have first refusal on Roscoe should he go on to be as successful. Consequently, to follow the same strategy, we have to look at loans instead. Ultimately, if the player's character is right, is there a big difference between taking a player on loan or signing him permantly on a one year contract, when you know if he does well he will be away at the end of the season (like Smith)? Managing to pick up the players we have in recent seasons that fit into the 19-21 year old bracket has been pretty exeptional but will prehaps become even more difficult. Other clubs at our level - subsistance full-time - look down south or abroad or to recruit players - I don't think we are in that market. Alteratively, you're recuiting from the same small pool of domestic full-time players, who job around Championship clubs without much success. tl:dr - I'm fine with loans. That's an excellent point and if anything it's probably better as at least you're under no illusion that the guy will be returning to his parent club at the end of the season. 2 year+ deals are definitely the way to go if it can be afforded, ok, they might not all work out, however it does give you that sense of comfort that your team will at least be together for a couple of years and should someone perform really well then the club benefits from a decent transfer fee to help them kick on. (Aidan Fitzpatrick at Thistle being a recent prime example). Unfortunately like many other clubs in our position, the deck is completely stacked against us at the moment......... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: You've completely missed his point. Nobody is suggesting you shouldn't be confident you can compete well at this level or any such thing. There were more unknowns a year ago. He's saying you are fundamentally poorer than you were 12 months ago. You can disagree with that if you want but as it happens you appear to be absolutely agreeing with him whilst still sticking a flag in the sand and saying you aren't! How does he, you, or anyone else know this ? We "might" be poorer than we were at the end of last year, however at the beginning of last year we had no idea how Shankland, Doohan, Moffat or Forrest were going to perform, hence the reason we were 40/1 with bookies. Similarly, we don't know how Doolan, McCowan, Ross, Forrest & Moffat are going to perform this season. They might all link up brilliantly and Doolan might notch 40 goals next season, we just don't know. Alternatively they might all be mince or pick up injuries we just don't know. As you've also acknowledged, "there were more unkowns a year ago", which again I'd say backs up my argument but again I don't know. The bottom line is that we all have our opinions and we've all got our arguments but ultimately we just don't know............. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
super_carson Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: You've completely missed his point. Nobody is suggesting you shouldn't be confident you can compete well at this level or any such thing. There were more unknowns a year ago. He's saying you are fundamentally poorer than you were 12 months ago. You can disagree with that if you want but as it happens you appear to be absolutely agreeing with him whilst still sticking a flag in the sand and saying you aren't! I don't disagree with you, given the season we had and the players we've lost (Smith, Shankland, Rose, Crawford). However, I think we look poorer in hindsight. This time last year, we didn't know if Shankland would make the step-up, Rose hadn't set the heather on fire in our previous stint in the Championship, Smith hadn't signed yet and we'd shitfested our way to the title on the last day. This time last year, I wasn't feeling massively confident about the season - 8th was the target given our squad was largely the same as the year before. We were all taken by surprise by our first half season form, and the fact we finished in the play-offs has risen/skewed expectations of this season. I think if we compare how we feel about our squad just now, compared to how we felt about it 12 months ago, there would be concerns and reservations at both points. Last year, arguably, we were buoyed by a league title and Shankland (surprisingly) staying but we didn't make many additions till later in the window and we were operating with a squad similar to the one that had almost blown the league 1 title. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superhursty7 Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Let's be honest you can't follow this league with radar who would have predicted we would have spent one 2 weeks the full season outbid the top 3, who would have predicted that Falkirk would go down and Partick fighting the drop all season I'm hopeful we can finish top half and push for playoffs bargain but equally I'd rip your arm off for safety the now, we are never going to get like for like for Smith , Shankland and Rose but satisfied that the guys brought in have potential and hopefully more signings to come. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, WATTOO said: How does he, you, or anyone else know this ? We "might" be poorer than we were at the end of last year, however at the beginning of last year we had no idea how Shankland, Doohan, Moffat or Forrest were going to perform, hence the reason we were 40/1 with bookies. Similarly, we don't know how Doolan, McCowan, Ross, Forrest & Moffat are going to perform this season. They might all link up brilliantly and Doolan might notch 40 goals next season, we just don't know. Alternatively they might all be mince or pick up injuries we just don't know. As you've also acknowledged, "there were more unkowns a year ago", which again I'd say backs up my argument but again I don't know. The bottom line is that we all have our opinions and we've all got our arguments but ultimately we just don't know............. I haven't particularly given an opinion. And yes, it's just opinions. I'm merely noting the bizarre fact that you're choosing to argue with him over phrasing semantics whilst agreeing with absolutely everything he said! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: I haven't particularly given an opinion. And yes, it's just opinions. I'm merely noting the bizarre fact that you're choosing to argue with him over phrasing semantics whilst agreeing with absolutely everything he said! Fair enough, I do have an argumentative streak to be fair......... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEHonestman1910 Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 The big I has been released... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 Kelly confirmed on loan. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpInTheAyr Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 (edited) He looks about 14 in that pic, had to look him up (he's 19) Edited July 10, 2019 by UpInTheAyr 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BukyOHare Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 7 hours ago, ryanayr1987 said: Got to question some of our support! Why are they so negative? I’m not an overly positive person but I’m getting sick of people moaning about how things are turning out! We are in the best position we have been in in 15 years what more do you want? Not on here as much but au media and fab! It's been like that for years. Our best players will always leave and our challenge is replacing them with other teams rejects or prospects. Until we're getting considerably more than 1500 - 2000 as a home support, what do people actually expect? Mid table respectability surely beckons this season, there's clearly going to be a big drop off from last season. What we have in or favour is a knowledge of the league, that we're still fulltime and a year of consolidation will hurt nobody. We need to become an established Championship team with the stability that provides before anything else. Anything else in the short term, like a playoff appearance, is a huge bonus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrTroopMajor Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 No idea what to expect but a big opportunity for him.Sure at some point we'll see Steven Gerrard at Somerset, enjoying our luxurious facilities. Spoiler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 Absolutely no idea what to expect from him but I’m hoping he’ll add a few goals from midfield which we didn’t really manage last season. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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