The Investment Thread

[alta-pete]

The boys offering the fixed rates know more about all the possible outcomes than any of us. They’re not offering those fixed deals to lose money.

My view FWIW is you borrow in the market and go with the market. Not too many people beat the market. Any attempt to do so only frontloads the upside for the lender. Just my view...

[Zetterlund]

My golden rule for the mortgage has always been to pay off as much as you can while you know you can afford it. A lot can change in 5 years, but most people can plan with reasonable certainty for the next 2. Since we bought our house 10 years ago we've ploughed anything we could spare into 2-year terms, with the logic that if the Mrs was to unexpectedly produce quadruplets halfway through there would only be a short spell of panic before we could rearrange (other domestic emergencies apply).

The likelihood is rates will rise slightly in the immediate term as there's pressure from inflation from all the money printed out of thin air since the crash. I really don't think it can go much higher than a few 0.25% hikes as even governments couldn't afford it. Brexit could be a curve ball though.

[Granny Danger]

We need a separate mortgage thread.

[resk]

My Stocks and Shares ISAs took a bit of a hammering in the recent correction. It's painful but I accept it as part of the game.

Coincidentally my workplace pension is in transition between online platforms (or so they say - hopefully I haven't been Maxwell'd....) so I haven't been able to survey the damage caused to it. My equity / bond split is around 70 / 30 so it could be a sair yin.

[Granny Danger]

11 hours ago, resk said:

My Stocks and Shares ISAs took a bit of a hammering in the recent correction. It's painful but I accept it as part of the game.

Coincidentally my workplace pension is in transition between online platforms (or so they say - hopefully I haven't been Maxwell'd....) so I haven't been able to survey the damage caused to it. My equity / bond split is around 70 / 30 so it could be a sair yin.

I don’t hold any shares in my SIPP or ISA, only funds.  This means it is far more difficult to react to a sudden market change.

That said, I agree it’s best just to let these things happen and go along with the inevitable upswing whenever it comes.

 

[Dindeleux]

Thought this was worth a bump due to the news this week on the Sports Direct shareprice dropping and the company admitting that they blundered with the House of Fraser acquisition.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/29/sports-direct-shares-results-mike-ashley-house-of-fraser

I see today that their auditing company has quit over the tax issue which, both the issue and the resignation, seems a bit suspicious to me.  I think they could be in a fair bit of financial trouble.  

Also think its a good, if a bit desperate, shout from Mike Ashley about drug-testing of top executives and solicitors across the City to help snare those who are potentially not evoking the best business practices as a result of their personal issues. 

Anyone affected by the Sports Direct issues?

[tarapoa]

Like many I’ve been absolutely f**ked over in the past few weeks with most of my dosh in an S&S ISA as well as holding years worth of shares in my previous oil industry employer.

 

Still, history tells you that corrections occur and things bounce back - so keen to chuck some spare cash at the stock market now.

 

Any hints for companies with decent bouncebackability welcome?

 

[Hamish's Passenger]

Toilet roll companies are bound to be on an upward curve

[Tight minge]

Like many I’ve been absolutely f**ked over in the past few weeks with most of my dosh in an S&S ISA as well as holding years worth of shares in my previous oil industry employer.
 
Still, history tells you that corrections occur and things bounce back - so keen to chuck some spare cash at the stock market now.
 
Any hints for companies with decent bouncebackability welcome?
 

Took a couple of punts on IAG and Menzies. Also got Unilever. Have held all my others, although they are all way down. Wouldn't touch any other airline. Would stay within the FTSE100, not touch AIM for sure.

Disclaimer: I have bought shares before in Millwall and African Lakes, so don't follow me!

[Zetterlund]

On 28/03/2020 at 23:31, tarapoa said:

Like many I’ve been absolutely f**ked over in the past few weeks with most of my dosh in an S&S ISA as well as holding years worth of shares in my previous oil industry employer.

 

Still, history tells you that corrections occur and things bounce back - so keen to chuck some spare cash at the stock market now.

 

Any hints for companies with decent bouncebackability welcome?

 

Bit of a curve ball but I'm liking gold miners. The current financial climate is positive for gold (see post-2008) and energy prices have plummeted. The big boys like Barrick and Newmont were performing well before the crash and have come back strongly. 

Of course, much depends on their ability to continue production as usual in the immediate future.

[jamamafegan]

I opened up a stocks and shares isa in January, it’s not looking great so far [emoji23]

[Honest_Man#1]

2 hours ago, jamamafegan said:

I opened up a stocks and shares isa in January, it’s not looking great so far

Yeah, try not to panic too much (hard I know seeing your money dwindling down) and stay the course. It will likely take a long time, but it’ll bounce back eventually.

[Granny Danger]

13 minutes ago, henrywilson said:

As a fact, you can start trading in larger amounts if you consult specialists. If you are engaged in trading on your own, then you should not risk it

^^^^ ‘Specialist’ touting for business.

[Granny Danger]

On 01/04/2020 at 20:57, MixuFixit said:

Your losses are only losses at the point you withdraw your money, be patient.

 

On 01/04/2020 at 22:58, Honest_Man#1 said:

Yeah, try not to panic too much (hard I know seeing your money dwindling down) and stay the course. It will likely take a long time, but it’ll bounce back eventually.

Have seen my SIPP returns bounce back considerably from their lowest point.  Still quite a bit down but imo it was a false bull market just before the COVID-19 thing hit.

Tempted to convert everything to cash and see how the next couple of months pan out.  Only downside is it’s all funds so in the couple of days between placing an order and seeing it execute a lot can happen.

 

[Honest_Man#1]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

 

Have seen my SIPP returns bounce back considerably from their lowest point.  Still quite a bit down but imo it was a false bull market just before the COVID-19 thing hit.

Tempted to convert everything to cash and see how the next couple of months pan out.  Only downside is it’s all funds so in the couple of days between placing an order and seeing it execute a lot can happen.

 

Unfortunately the failing market is also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy as if large numbers think and act the same as you (in the scenario that you did take your money out of the funds) then it drags down the value, whilst if everyone had just stayed the course it would hold much better.

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Honest_Man#1 said:

Unfortunately the failing market is also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy as if large numbers think and act the same as you (in the scenario that you did take your money out of the funds) then it drags down the value, whilst if everyone had just stayed the course it would hold much better.

Absolutely, but it’s definitely a ‘look out for yourself’ type scenario.

[Honest_Man#1]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Absolutely, but it’s definitely a ‘look out for yourself’ type scenario.

I understand that, but at the same time if everyone does that then it’s meltdown here we come. Very frustrating knowing that if everyone didn’t shite their pants then we’d all likely be fine, but instead everyone will end up down, with those holding on trying to keep the market up worst off.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Honest_Man#1

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

I understand that, but at the same time if everyone does that then it’s meltdown here we come. Very frustrating knowing that if everyone didn’t shite their pants then we’d all likely be fine, but instead everyone will end up down, with those holding on trying to keep the market up worst off.

Don’t agree.  The markets are dominated by institutional investors, people like me make up a tiny fraction of a percentage.  Institutional investors will not sell for selling sake, it’s not in their interest.

The falls since the start of this crisis are a real, if somewhat exaggerated, reflection on the economic situation.  People running their own SIPPs and ISAs will have no impact upon how the market will react in the next few months.

[Honest_Man#1]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Don’t agree.  The markets are dominated by institutional investors, people like me make up a tiny fraction of a percentage.  Institutional investors will not sell for selling sake, it’s not in their interest.

The falls since the start of this crisis are a real, if somewhat exaggerated, reflection on the economic situation.  People running their own SIPPs and ISAs will have no impact upon how the market will react in the next few months.

Fair enough, agree to disagree. If you add up worldwide the amount invested by individual investors like yourself, I think you’d be surprised at the number. If everyone panics and sells, I think it would be naive to think it wouldn’t have any impact.

[Granny Danger]

The annualised growth rate for my SIPP as of this morning is 9% (not allowing for inflation).  This is down from an artificially high 11.1% just before COVID-19 hit but well up on the lowest point of zero just a few weeks ago.

I know the economy and the stock market are not the same thing, but the latter is usually an indication of the health of the former.  Given all that is happening and the widespread projections of economic gloom I am astounded that the market still appears so healthy.