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The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition


forameus

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My talented footballing 9 year old summed up the mood yesterday.

Sitting looking gutted after the game last night, my wife said to him jokingly "Why dont you pick another country to support?"

He replied very seriously "Oh mum, I could never do that, they are who I want to play for."

He was then told that he better get used to feeling this way after Scotland games.

He replied "Im not upset about the result, Im upset that I am Scottish"

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11 hours ago, johnnydun said:

My talented footballing 9 year old summed up the mood yesterday.

Sitting looking gutted after the game last night, my wife said to him jokingly "Why dont you pick another country to support?"

He replied very seriously "Oh mum, I could never do that, they are who I want to play for."

He was then told that he better get used to feeling this way after Scotland games.

He replied "Im not upset about the result, Im upset that I am Scottish"

It's genuinely quite sad.

My boy is eleven now and the next World Cup finals Scotland could conceivably feature in, will fall around the time of his 16th birthday.   I turned twenty four during the first finals tournament of my life that Scotland didn't feature in.

I've got great (and awful) formative memories of watching those tournaments with my old dad -  Gemmell, Narey etc.  Nothing similar will be a feature of his childhood.

We must have been a really tall race of people back in the 70s and 80s.

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I was 6 when we last qualified, and I wasn't really into Football massively so didn't appreciate it.


We're the same age.

Not much more to add really, but there you are.
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Slovakia worst second placer doesn't make it any better

Nope. Nothing against Wales but seeing them lose out tonight has helped a bit - makes it feel less like it's just us having to suffer such a boot in the baws. Potential friendly with them next month?
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Guest DAVIDB69

Nope. Nothing against Wales but seeing them lose out tonight has helped a bit - makes it feel less like it's just us having to suffer such a boot in the baws. Potential friendly with them next month?


You know the script we won't see a friendly till march
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Still, Wales though :lol:

It's like two bald men fighting over a comb, but to watch them shit the bed from a position of strength is most pleasing.  From a playoff perspective (am I f**k working it out for sure) it probably makes things more difficult should we have made it too.  Wales would have been seeded, Republic of Ireland presumably won't be.

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11 hours ago, DAVIDB69 said:

 


You know the script we won't see a friendly till march

 

Yep, I'm just building up a head of delusional expectation so I can explode with rage when Regan tweets that they can't be arsed doing their jobs again until March.

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Hiya pals!  After we all had such fun considering permutations for the World Cup Qualifiers a while back before ultimately watching us shit the Slovenian bed, I thought we'd revive it for a nice Nations League edition.  Basically, a rundown of what could happen, followed by the crushing realisation that we're totally fucked.

As always, give me a shout if I'm wrong on anything, which I most likely will be.

Group 1

Pos Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Promotion or relegation   Israel Scotland Albania
1 21px-Flag_of_Israel.svg.png Israel 3 2 0 1 4 2 +2 6 Promotion to League B   2–1 2–0
2 23px-Flag_of_Scotland.svg.png Scotland 2 1 0 1 3 2 +1 3[a]     20 Nov 2–0
3 21px-Flag_of_Albania.svg.png Albania 3 1 0 2 1 4 −3 3[a] Possible relegation to League D

  1–0 17 Nov

 

The prospect of a 3 team group was always going to make things that little bit more odd, and so it has proved.  The remaining fixtures both involve us, Albania away on Saturday, then Israel on Tuesday.  We're in an odd position whereby the game on Friday doesn't really affect us - as long as we can beat Israel, of course.  However, a win in Tirana would put the ball very much in our court going forward to Hampden on Tuesday.  Albania aren't actually out of it yet either.  I'm not going to go into what goal difference would be needed, but if Albania tear strips off of us and take 4 or 5, and then we still beat Israel on Tuesday then we'd all be locked on 6 points.  Think the hypothetical big win would mean Albania take top spot, but might be wrong.  Defeat to Albania could lead to us topping the group, or getting relegated.  It's...complicated.  

One of the boosts of being in a 3 team group though is that relegation isn't guaranteed.  Should we pick up at least one point from the next two games, I would fancy our chances of not finishing bottom of the 3rd placed table, and subsequently stay in Tier 3.  We'll still be seeded 4th for qualifying, but we'll be saved the ignomy of facing off against the likes of San Marino and Gibraltar in two years time.

But our fate is pretty well mapped out - what about the other groups?

Group 2

Pos Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Promotion or relegation   Finland Greece Hungary Estonia
1 23px-Flag_of_Finland.svg.png Finland (X) 4 4 0 0 5 0 +5 12 Promotion to League B   2–0 1–0 1–0
2 23px-Flag_of_Greece.svg.png Greece 4 2 0 2 3 4 −1 6     15 Nov 1–0 18 Nov
3 23px-Flag_of_Hungary.svg.png Hungary (Y) 4 1 1 2 5 6 −1 4 Possible relegation to League D[a]   18 Nov 2–1 15 Nov
4 23px-Flag_of_Estonia.svg.png Estonia (Y) 4 0 1 3 3 6 −3 1 Relegation to League D   0–1 0–1 3–3

 

Finland are almost home and hosed with two games to go, needing just a point from either game to seal top spot.  The way they've been playing though, I wouldn't be surprised if they maxed it.  Two away games though, first in Athens, then Budapest.  Could be tough.  If Greece manage to win their upcoming match against the leaders, they'll need another win against bottom side Estonia and hope that Finland slip up.  Oh, and a 6 goal swing in goal difference against a side that has yet to concede a goal.  So...aye.

In terms of the bottom, Estonia look doomed, rendering them irrelevant.  Hungary are currently on 3 points in the 3rd place table, below the total we currently have.  They've only got one game left to pick up points, presuming Estonia stay bottom.  Greece could still be relegated too if Hungary pass them, they also only have one game left to pick up points for the 3rd placed table.

Group 3

Pos Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Promotion or relegation   Norway Bulgaria Cyprus Slovenia
1 21px-Flag_of_Norway.svg.png Norway 4 3 0 1 4 1 +3 9 Promotion to League B   1–0 2–0 1–0
2 23px-Flag_of_Bulgaria.svg.png Bulgaria 4 3 0 1 5 3 +2 9     1–0 2–1 19 Nov
3 23px-Flag_of_Cyprus.svg.png Cyprus 4 1 1 2 4 6 −2 4 Possible relegation to League D[a]   19 Nov 16 Nov 2–1
4 23px-Flag_of_Slovenia.svg.png Slovenia (Y) 4 0 1 3 3 6 −3 1 Relegation to League D   16 Nov 1–2 1–1

 

Not quite as clear-cut as Group 2.  Norway and Bulgaria are locked at the top, having traded 1-0 defeats in both fixtures.  Both of them have fixtures against Cyprus and Slovenia left, so it's a pretty straight shootout.  Best record will be promoted, probably with a very decent points total.  At the bottom, Cyprus are only on one point in the 3rd placed table, and with the two big boys of the group to come, it's going to be very tough for them to catch the sides above them.  But unlike Group 2, there are still 2 games left for them to pick up points.  Same for Slovenia, but they look doomed already.

Pos Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Promotion or relegation   Serbia Montenegro Romania Lithuania
1 23px-Flag_of_Serbia.svg.png Serbia 4 2 2 0 5 2 +3 8 Promotion to League B   17 Nov 2–2 20 Nov
2 23px-Flag_of_Montenegro.svg.png Montenegro 4 2 1 1 6 3 +3 7     0–2 20 Nov 2–0
3 23px-Flag_of_Romania.svg.png Romania 4 1 3 0 4 3 +1 6 Possible relegation to League D[a]   0–0 0–0 17 Nov
4 23px-Flag_of_Lithuania.svg.png Lithuania (Y) 4 0 0 4 2 9 −7 0 Relegation to League D   0–1 1–4 1–2

 

Pretty clear that Lithuania are gone.  Still six points to play for, but it would take a crushing win against Romania and then another against Serbia to leave bottom spot.  In terms of the top, any number of the 3 could still finish top.  Serbia favourites, particularly with the match against Lithuania to come.  They're still unbeaten, and a win against Montenegro on Saturday would pretty much seal them as group winners.

The Playoffs

From my understanding, the 2 teams with the best record, minus results against 4th placed sides, will be drawn at home in the semi-finals of the playoffs, essentially seeded.  Currently, the table looks like so

Finland
Israel
---------
Norway
Serbia

Top 3 locked on 6 points, with Finland edging ahead by a single goal.  Could all change come the weekend though

Relegation

 

Pos Grp Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Relegation
1 C4 23px-Flag_of_Romania.svg.png Romania 3 0 3 0 2 2 0 3  
2 C2 23px-Flag_of_Hungary.svg.png Hungary 3 1 0 2 2 3 −1 3
3 C1 21px-Flag_of_Albania.svg.png Albania 3 1 0 2 1 4 −3 3
4 C3 23px-Flag_of_Cyprus.svg.png Cyprus 2 0 0 2 1 4 −3 0 Relegation to League D

 

 

The current third placed table has Cyprus getting relegated, currently along with Slovenia, Lithuania and Estonia.  Good news for our group.

 

I'll update this as results happen, then we can spend pages and pages thinking about what might have been after it all falls apart.  Yass.

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10 hours ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

Had a look at the groups yesterday and there's basically no chance in hell we're getting relegated. We certainly may f**k up and not get top spot or even finish bottom in the table but relegation is highly implausible.

I think relegation is basically us getting a scheme booting off Albania on Saturday, and probably the same again off Israel.  Even then, it's possible we'd still be saved purely because we're in a 3 team group.  All of the other 3rd placed teams would have to reach 6 points with a better goal difference, discounting results against the super diddy in 4th.  

I hadn't realised how stacked the odds were in favour of the 3 team group actually.  Less cut-throat games that actually matter, and the only group without guaranteed relegation.  Nice place to be if you're in danger of that.

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For stats fans, the mainstream media head scratcher results would be for Albania to beat us 3-0, and us to beat Israel 2-0.  That would tie all three teams up on 6 points, and on goal difference (0).  We would then top the group thanks to our shitty penalty in Israel.  Should Albania beat us 3-0 and the final game ends 3-1, Israel would then join us on away goals, but I think we'd still go through on head-to-head.  

For Albania to win, they need to win by at least 3 goals, and make sure it's 2 more than we beat Israel by.

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Group 2 had their fifth round of matches last night, and it actually ended up being quite a good result for the other groups.

Greece 1 - 0 Finland
Hungary 2 - 0 Estonia

With those results, Finland seal their promotion (I presume due to head-to-head against Greece) and have their second chance at qualifying in March of 2020 should they need it.  The defeat is a great result for the other groups as their position in the fight for a home draw has been weakened.  They're on 6 points now (dropping 6 points they achieved against Estonia), with the potential to get 9.  Two wins for us, for example (lol) will see us draw level with them, and give us a very good chance of a home draw.

Pos Team
[   ]
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Promotion or relegation   Finland Greece Hungary Estonia
1 23px-Flag_of_Finland.svg.png Finland (P) 5 4 0 1 5 1 +4 12 Promotion to League B   2–0 1–0 1–0
2 23px-Flag_of_Greece.svg.png Greece 5 3 0 2 4 4 0 9     1–0 1–0 18 Nov
3 23px-Flag_of_Hungary.svg.png Hungary 5 2 1 2 7 6 +1 7 Possible relegation to League D[a]   18 Nov 2–1 2–0
4 23px-Flag_of_Estonia.svg.png Estonia (R) 5 0 1 4 3 8 −5 1 Relegation to League D   0–1 0–1 3–3

 

Group 3 has a round of fixtures tonight, with Groups 1 and 4 rounding out on Saturday.

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