The Mantis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: Taking that into the SPFL Prem playoffs would yield: Prem 11th: 50% Cham 2nd: 25% Cham 3rd:12.5% Cham 4th: 12.5% Although in reality it gets much worse the further down you go due to tiredness and playing second legs at home. Yeah we had that discussion over on CaleyThistleOnline a few weeks ago. Same as here, some people needed the maths explained to them 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Cowden Cowboy with another failure. I’m sure his pals will be along to back him up though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowden Cowboy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said: Cowden Cowboy with another failure. I’m sure his pals will be along to back him up though You wrote the book on failure on this site - but again any argument that isn't black and white is way beyond you. Any one of 3 teams can win thus there are 3 possible outcomes = 33% - the odds are a different thing. When the League starts each one of 10 teams has the same opportunity 1 in 10 but their odds are not the same. Look it another way both teams in the play off final have the same chance = 50%. The non-league clubs are trying to take something the SPFL club already has thus they need to beat an SPFL club in the final to merit the prize 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonD Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, haufdaft said: We keep hearing that glorified boys teams should be allowed into league two because they would be there on "footballing merit" In reality the Highland league and Lowland league winners each had much less than a 1 in 3 chance. Quite simply they were not good enough on the field of play to win a place in league two. They couldn't beat Cowdenbeath, who were by far the worst team and cut adrift at the bottom of league two, over two matches. Cowdenbeath only scraped through on penalties a year ago. Didn't seem to be that big a gap between them and East Kilbride. And if there is a huge gulf between L2 and LL how come East Stirling haven't scooshed the title the last two seasons? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, Cowden Cowboy said: You wrote the book on failure on this site - but again any argument that isn't black and white is way beyond you. Any one of 3 teams can win thus there are 3 possible outcomes = 33% - the odds are a different thing. When the League starts each one of 10 teams has the same opportunity 1 in 10 but their odds are not the same. Look it another way both teams in the play off final have the same chance = 50%. The non-league clubs are trying to take something the SPFL club already has thus they need to beat an SPFL club in the final to merit the prize So Montrose should have played off for what Albion Rovers already had? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haufdaft Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Cowdenbeath only scraped through on penalties a year ago. Didn't seem to be that big a gap between them and East Kilbride. And if there is a huge gulf between L2 and LL how come East Stirling haven't scooshed the title the last two seasons? I was referring to Spartans and Cove Rangers. East Kilbride didn't beat Cowdenbeath over two legs and lost on penalties. Edinburgh City won over East Stirlingshire and are now in league two. That's the way it should be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Cowden Cowboy said: You wrote the book on failure on this site - but again any argument that isn't black and white is way beyond you. Any one of 3 teams can win thus there are 3 possible outcomes = 33% - the odds are a different thing. When the League starts each one of 10 teams has the same opportunity 1 in 10 but their odds are not the same. Look it another way both teams in the play off final have the same chance = 50%. The non-league clubs are trying to take something the SPFL club already has thus they need to beat an SPFL club in the final to merit the prize 4 possible outcomes each with equal probability or 3 outcomes not all equal. you can’t quote a percentage then say “the odds are a different thing” Edited May 31, 2018 by The Mantis 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Cowden Cowboy said: You wrote the book on failure on this site - but again any argument that isn't black and white is way beyond you. Any one of 3 teams can win thus there are 3 possible outcomes = 33% - the odds are a different thing. When the League starts each one of 10 teams has the same opportunity 1 in 10 but their odds are not the same. Look it another way both teams in the play off final have the same chance = 50%. The non-league clubs are trying to take something the SPFL club already has thus they need to beat an SPFL club in the final to merit the prize You must have read it multiple times to come up with a post like that. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, Cowden Cowboy said: How is it a 25% chance when 1 club out of 3 carries the day - surely 33%? It's 50% for club 42 and 25% each for the HL and LL winners. Even weirder, in the Premiership play-off it's: 50% for 11th in Premiership 25% for 2nd in Championship 12.5% each for 3rd and 4th in Championship. I see this has already been explained elsewhere. Edited May 31, 2018 by Gordon EF 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 An even more extreme example. One team is given a bye right into the Scottish Cup Final. The other 100-odd clubs play for the other place. Is that fair and equal? And one more chance for the cowboy to earn his spurs: You toss two coins. You can bet on two heads, two tails, or one of each. 3 outcomes, 33% each, right? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonD Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, The Mantis said: An even more extreme example. One team is given a bye right into the Scottish Cup Final. The other 100-odd clubs play for the other place. Is that fair and equal? That's how the second FA Cup was done. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeSAFC Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Cowden Cowboy is the biggest bore on this site. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 You wrote the book on failure on this site - but again any argument that isn't black and white is way beyond you. Any one of 3 teams can win thus there are 3 possible outcomes = 33% - the odds are a different thing. When the League starts each one of 10 teams has the same opportunity 1 in 10 but their odds are not the same. Look it another way both teams in the play off final have the same chance = 50%. The non-league clubs are trying to take something the SPFL club already has thus they need to beat an SPFL club in the final to merit the prize ????????♂️And another 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 It's a 50% chance for every team - either they win or they don't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, craigkillie said: It's a 50% chance for every team - either they win or they don't. I'd love to have a game of poker with you, just get through with a couple of play offs first. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DutchBorderer Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted June 1, 2018 Share Posted June 1, 2018 Tl;Dr Having less games isn't necessarily a disadvantage nor is it necessarily an advantage. What does matter is what happens on the day and the easiest way to put that is GIRFUY. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeSAFC Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 But in all seriousness when/if Cowden finish bottom again surely they should be automatically relegated? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UsedToGoToCentralPark Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 But in all seriousness when/if Cowden finish bottom again surely they should be automatically relegated? Nah 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onecowden Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 But in all seriousness when/if Cowden finish bottom again surely they should be automatically relegated? Nah 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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