welshbairn Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Clyde01 said: In a ten team league you would have 1st promoted, promotion playoff spots for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th relegated and 9th in a relegation playoff. Meaning only 4 teams (40% of your league) finishing in mid table. That’s not enough. Knock leagues one and two together making a bigger league (only playing home and away once) and this idea might work. 13 minutes ago, clyde_r_us said: Been saying that for years Me too. There are idiots proposing that the HL should be split from 18 to 2x10, very few in the Highlands or North East I might add. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 54 minutes ago, Gordon EF said: Well really, once a HL/LL team has won their semi-final, they're on equal footing with club 42 on that one. 50/50 chance, in principle. You could say home advantage in the second leg is significant enough to edge it in club 42's favour but it didn't help Partick Thistle, Dumbarton or Peterhead much in the other play-off finals this season. I think we have to be realistic and say that in four attempts, only managing to defeat a consitently horrendous Shire side and Edinburgh's subsequent struggles in L2 doesn't support the argument that there's a host of HL/LL clubs who'd significantly improve L2 at the moment. There are a host of clubs that could improve our league, however only one of them gets the chance every year and even then, it's down to the performance at a particular week in May. That clearly doesn't give an indicator of the relevant merits of each clubs ability to improve a league. In terms of current performances over the season there is more than one League 2 club that could be replaced and result in improvement to the League. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, strichener said: There are a host of clubs that could improve our league, however only one of them gets the chance every year and even then, it's down to the performance at a particular week in May. That clearly doesn't give an indicator of the relevant merits of each clubs ability to improve a league. In terms of current performances over the season there is more than one League 2 club that could be replaced and result in improvement to the League. It may well be the case that, longer term, there are clubs in the LL/HL that would make the SPFL more competitive, all I'm saying is that on the scant evidence we have to go on at the moment, it's difficult to back that up with hard evidence. As I said, I'm all for opening things up and getting more churn. Obviously actually getting into the league is the most obvious route to self improvement for a lot of clubs so it's difficult to judge what they can do until they get there. Peterhead aside, the three most recent additions (Elgin, Annan and Edinburgh) must have collectively about 30 L2 seasons under their belt now with not one promotion between them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thom & Gerry Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 No evidence of that though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, Gordon EF said: It may well be the case that, longer term, there are clubs in the LL/HL that would make the SPFL more competitive, all I'm saying is that on the scant evidence we have to go on at the moment, it's difficult to back that up with hard evidence. As I said, I'm all for opening things up and getting more churn. Obviously actually getting into the league is the most obvious route to self improvement for a lot of clubs so it's difficult to judge what they can do until they get there. Peterhead aside, the three most recent additions (Elgin, Annan and Edinburgh) must have collectively about 30 L2 seasons under their belt now with not one promotion between them. Montrose were in the league for 22 seasons without getting promotion and could quite easily have been out of the division a couple of years back and Edinburgh were actually promoted to get into the league in the first place. Basing the ability of a club on play-off performances is not evidence that they are better/worse for a league. If we look at Brechin we can see the absolute worst outcome from having a few good performances in play-off games. Stenny were the same this year where the results of the play-off was not unexpected given their performances against us during the season. This was a team that accumulated 28 points less than us from mutual opposition over the course of a season. However, the actual play-off games fixtures came down to the last game of the season where we could have been automatically promoted and/or the relative positions of Stenny/Stirling could have been reversed which may have ended up with a completely different outcome. Do they deserve to be promoted? Of course they do. Will they enhance the league above more or less than Peterhead would have, that is a far more subjective. Edited May 31, 2018 by strichener 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowden Cowboy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Play'offs that are stacked in the league 2 clubs favour? The HL/LL clubs hav to play 4 games to get into League 2 and face the 2nd leg of the tie against club 42 away from home? But HL and LL clubs have weeks when they can coast against poorer quality sides plus LL has less fixtures to start with and these leagues allow teams to field trialists right up to end of season in their league matches. Play offs are hardly stacked in the SPFL teams favour - 2 extra games is hardly a big issue and 2nd leg away from home isn't that a big deal either. It's hardly an insuperable obstacle and the word "stacked" is hyperbole 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowden Cowboy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 That should have been the norm from the start but SFA has given the bottom in League 2 another chance to survive. Any true pyramid system like that down in England this is the case where the bottom 2 in League 2 being automatically relegated and the Champions of the National League getting promoted and the winners of the playoffs also coming up. Nothing to do with SFA - it's the SPFL who decides if and how new members are admitted 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowden Cowboy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Well really, once a HL/LL team has won their semi-final, they're on equal footing with club 42 on that one. 50/50 chance, in principle. You could say home advantage in the second leg is significant enough to edge it in club 42's favour but it didn't help Partick Thistle, Dumbarton or Peterhead much in the other play-off finals this season. I think we have to be realistic and say that in four attempts, only managing to defeat a consitently horrendous Shire side and Edinburgh's subsequent struggles in L2 doesn't support the argument that there's a host of HL/LL clubs who'd significantly improve L2 at the moment. I'm actually in favour of automatic relegation for club 42 and the HH/LL play-off winner replacing them, despite that. A 25% chance of promotion once you've already won your league seems overly tough. How is it a 25% chance when 1 club out of 3 carries the day - surely 33%? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 How is it a 25% chance when 1 club out of 3 carries the day - surely 33%? You can’t put the percentages of one of the league winners the same percentage as yourselves. They have an extra tie to play. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowden Cowboy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 You can’t put the percentages of one of the league winners the same percentage as yourselves. They have an extra tie to play. I think I can they still have a 1 in 3 chance 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cowden Cowboy said: I think I can they still have a 1 in 3 chance No, Cowdenbeath the drossest of the SPFL dross have a 50% chance. The LL and HL winners about 25% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haufdaft Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 I think I can they still have a 1 in 3 chance We keep hearing that glorified boys teams should be allowed into league two because they would be there on "footballing merit" In reality the Highland league and Lowland league winners each had much less than a 1 in 3 chance. Quite simply they were not good enough on the field of play to win a place in league two. They couldn't beat Cowdenbeath, who were by far the worst team and cut adrift at the bottom of league two, over two matches. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, haufdaft said: We keep hearing that glorified boys teams should be allowed into league two because they would be there on "footballing merit" In reality the Highland league and Lowland league winners each had much less than a 1 in 3 chance. Quite simply they were not good enough on the field of play to win a place in league two. They couldn't beat Cowdenbeath, who were by far the worst team and cut adrift at the bottom of league two, over two matches. You mean the Cowdenbeath who beat Clyde in April? Promotion and demotion for bottom teams and Champions should be decided by performances over the season, not one off games. The HL/LL playoff is unavoidable but the playoff granted to the bottom League 2 side is unique and unjustifiable imo. Edited May 31, 2018 by welshbairn 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big al Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, haufdaft said: We keep hearing that glorified boys teams should be allowed into league two because they would be there on "footballing merit" In reality the Highland league and Lowland league winners each had much less than a 1 in 3 chance. Quite simply they were not good enough on the field of play to win a place in league two. They couldn't beat Cowdenbeath, who were by far the worst team and cut adrift at the bottom of league two, over two matches. This is a good point 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big al Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 18 hours ago, Clyde01 said: In a ten team league you would have 1st promoted, promotion playoff spots for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th relegated and 9th in a relegation playoff. Meaning only 4 teams (40% of your league) finishing in mid table. That’s not enough. Knock leagues one and two together making a bigger league (only playing home and away once) and this idea might work. This is a very good point 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitburn Vale Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Cowden Cowboy said: But HL and LL clubs have weeks when they can coast against poorer quality sides plus LL has less fixtures to start with and these leagues allow teams to field trialists right up to end of season in their league matches. Play offs are hardly stacked in the SPFL teams favour - 2 extra games is hardly a big issue and 2nd leg away from home isn't that a big deal either. It's hardly an insuperable obstacle and the word "stacked" is hyperbole Boom!! Poorer quality sides certainly in the HFL right now but in the LL not for much longer!! Linlithgow Rose have now applied to the EOS and for me its a game changer in the south!! It will not be long before clubs the size of Linlithgow,Bo'ness and Bonnyrigg will be chapping on the league 2 door. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Cowden Cowboy said: I think I can they still have a 1 in 3 chance Jeez, I'm not a betting man but even I can see getting a bye into the final is not 1 in 3 Even assuming all teams are equal in ability: Pr (Team 42 wins) = 1/2 Pr(LL team wins) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. Pr (HL team wins) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. You can prove it to yourself by running a simulation with tossing a coin. Edited May 31, 2018 by The Mantis 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: No, Cowdenbeath the drossest of the SPFL dross have a 50% chance. The LL and HL winners about 25% 4 minutes ago, The Mantis said: Jeez, I'm not a betting man but even I can see getting a bye into the final is not 1 in 3 Even assuming all teams are equal in ability: Pr (Team 42 wins) = 1/2 Pr(LL team wins) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. Pr (HL team wins) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. You can prove it to yourself by running a simulation with tossing a coin. As I said, two hours ago. It's simple probability, making the assumption all teams are equally strong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mantis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: As I said, two hours ago. It's simple probability, making the assumption all teams are equally strong. Yeah I'm just spelling out the details for him The coin simulation is good too. Just repeat the experiment say 20 times and team 42 will win about 10 times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) Taking that into the SPFL Prem playoffs would yield: Prem 11th: 50% Cham 2nd: 25% Cham 3rd:12.5% Cham 4th: 12.5% Although in reality it gets much worse the further down you go due to tiredness and playing second legs away from home. Edited May 31, 2018 by Ranaldo Bairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.