Teachers of P&B

[Ranaldo Bairn]

3 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Well external SQA marking, even of N5 coursework which has already been collected from schools, is not going to happen at all this year.

A strange sounding decision, but there we are.

Yes, odd but the logistics in these times of delivery, collection and return probably swayed it.

Regarding predictions, I've spent some time comparing N5 and H final estimates over several years to final results. Turns out I'm quite good at predicting what they'll get! So I'm happy to continue using the same evidence as I have done for that time.

I see they are splitting bands right down and wanting a list of the pupils in order.

The crunch will come in post-results when every wee soul who does not get what they wanted/needed will be wanting their assignment marked properly.

[Monkey Tennis]

2 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

Yes, odd but the logistics in these times of delivery, collection and return probably swayed it.

Regarding predictions, I've spent some time comparing N5 and H final estimates over several years to final results. Turns out I'm quite good at predicting what they'll get! So I'm happy to continue using the same evidence as I have done for that time.

I see they are splitting bands right down and wanting a list of the pupils in order.

The crunch will come in post-results when every wee soul who does not get what they wanted/needed will be wanting their assignment marked properly.

Yes, the steps between submission of estimates, and finalising of grades, are clearly going to involve number crunching and are designed to ensure that 2020's ultimate results don't look way out of line.

Within that though, I'm sure that there will be plenty of individuals who are not well served.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

Reasons for that would be if they did shockingly at their prelims, or the school has historically been grossly overoptimistic in their estimates.

[pandarilla]

Reasons for that would be if they did shockingly at their prelims, or the school has historically been grossly overoptimistic in their estimates.

We usually underestimate because prelims are tough and results are usually better.

[Monkey Tennis]

15 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

Reasons for that would be if they did shockingly at their prelims, or the school has historically been grossly overoptimistic in their estimates.

Well yes but that's a concern.

Individuals are at the mercy of factors like the degree of concordance historically displayed by their entire school, rather than by the teacher making the estimate.    There's scope here for lots of very flawed little pictures being pieced together to create a satisfactory looking big one.

[The_Kincardine]

16 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Well yes but that's a concern.

Individuals are at the mercy of factors like the degree of concordance historically displayed by their entire school, rather than by the teacher making the estimate.    There's scope here for lots of very flawed little pictures being pieced together to create a satisfactory looking big one.

^^^lockdown jigsaw puzzles being the activity of choice Doon Hame, clearly.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

And as I said, those who feel hard done by, will be putting in post results requests en masse.

Well yes but that's a concern.
Individuals are at the mercy of factors like the degree of concordance historically displayed by their entire school, rather than by the teacher making the estimate.    There's scope here for lots of very flawed little pictures being pieced together to create a satisfactory looking big one.

[Monkey Tennis]

11 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

And as I said, those who feel hard done by, will be putting in post results requests en masse.

Yes, but they'll struggle to show evidence of the "inferred attainment" which is allowed to colour an estimate.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

So in what way are they being hard done by? No evidence, either from prelims or their school's estimates being historically accurate means hard cheese old bean.

Yes, but they'll struggle to show evidence of the "inferred attainment" which is allowed to colour an estimate.

 

[Monkey Tennis]

13 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

So in what way are they being hard done by? No evidence, either from prelims or their school's estimates being historically accurate means hard cheese old bean.

 

We're both surely familiar with the lazy sod with a half decent brain who gets an act together in May, having displayed little that was encouraging beforehand?

His (for it's usually a he) chances of success this year will be reliant on an estimate that must strive to recognise this "inferred" as opposed to "demonstrated" attainment.  If he attends a school - perhaps one with 100+ teachers, that generally gets this stuff right, he's more likely to have that estimate stand than he might be, should he attend an institution where the staff have a more erratic record.

[pandarilla]

So in what way are they being hard done by? No evidence, either from prelims or their school's estimates being historically accurate means hard cheese old bean.

 

Loads of kids perform at their best in the final exam, when it actually matters.

They're being robbed of that if they stick close to prelim evidence (I'm basing my increased estimate on evidence that they're sending me, or did in the last week before closure). It would be very harsh on a lot of kids.

[vikingTON]

42 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Loads of kids perform at their best in the final exam, when it actually matters.

They're being robbed of that if they stick close to prelim evidence (I'm basing my increased estimate on evidence that they're sending me, or did in the last week before closure). It would be very harsh on a lot of kids.

I distinctly recall being told by teachers to take prelim exams seriously* because there was no guarantee that you’d sit the final exam due to illness or another unforeseen circumstance. And so here we are.

If you didn’t bother taking the dummy run seriously then you have no legitimate grievance about getting a shite result for your course. It’ll just be an earlier than usual demonstration of the fact that life isn’t always fair.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* didn’t bother revising and skooshed every exam regardless

 

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Loads of kids perform at their best in the final exam, when it actually matters.

They're being robbed of that if they stick close to prelim evidence (I'm basing my increased estimate on evidence that they're sending me, or did in the last week before closure). It would be very harsh on a lot of kids.

Prelims serve as a wake up call for the capable but lazy. Ideally if someone got A/B at N5 and maybe 30% in the prelim then the teacher can recommend a C at Higher at least.

Let's just make the rule prelim %age + 20% = final mark.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

So the lazy sod in question has ignored a century of advice that prelims are important and got 25%. Their assignment may or may not have been sparkling; we'll never know. They've done unit tests and A/B tests throughout the year. If at Higher, they presumably did well at N5.
Their teacher, who looks upon the youth with a kindly eye, sees a spark therein and bumps up his grade, sensibly, along with the rest of the class.

What's the problem here?
If historically the schools predictions have been iffy then some or all of the bump will get adjusted, if they've been good, then his result will be waved through.
And if he doesn't like the final result, he'll apply at post results to have his assignment marked properly.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

Then look back at your predictions over the last 5 years like I did, see what the average uplift was between prelim based estimates and final results, and adjust this year's accordingly.

Loads of kids perform at their best in the final exam, when it actually matters.

They're being robbed of that if they stick close to prelim evidence (I'm basing my increased estimate on evidence that they're sending me, or did in the last week before closure). It would be very harsh on a lot of kids.

[pandarilla]

Then look back at your predictions over the last 5 years like I did, see what the average uplift was between prelim based estimates and final results, and adjust this year's accordingly.

I'm not the pt so can't be arsed with this. I would otherwise though.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

3 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

I'm not the pt so can't be arsed with this. I would otherwise though.
 

I'd recommend it if you've got a bit of time to spare. I'm a numbers geek though.

As I said earlier, my predictions have been close to their final awards. I do know of colleagues where there's a regular uplift of a band or so, so that's what they will be submitting.

[Monkey Tennis]

1 hour ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

So the lazy sod in question has ignored a century of advice that prelims are important and got 25%. Their assignment may or may not have been sparkling; we'll never know. They've done unit tests and A/B tests throughout the year. If at Higher, they presumably did well at N5.
Their teacher, who looks upon the youth with a kindly eye, sees a spark therein and bumps up his grade, sensibly, along with the rest of the class.

What's the problem here?
If historically the schools predictions have been iffy then some or all of the bump will get adjusted, if they've been good, then his result will be waved through.
And if he doesn't like the final result, he'll apply at post results to have his assignment marked properly.
 

The point isn't to do with whether our lazy sod should have worked harder, earlier or not.

The point is to do with the fact that our lazy sod's twin who attends a neighbouring school, has a different chance of having his identically optimistic estimate stand, based on nothing to do with the work either has produced.

[Ranaldo Bairn]

But they'll also take into consideration final grades of all pupils over many years, number of A's awarded etc. So L.S. Esq. will not be unfairly treated.

And if they are unhappy, they can have their assignment marked. And if they're still unhappy, then I'm afraid there's always going to be some in that position.

[Monkey Tennis]

1 hour ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

But they'll also take into consideration final grades of all pupils over many years, number of A's awarded etc. So L.S. Esq. will not be unfairly treated.

And if they are unhappy, they can have their assignment marked. And if they're still unhappy, then I'm afraid there's always going to be some in that position.

You seem to be missing my point, deliberately or otherwise.

I don't see how your first sentence ensures fairness for dear old LS at all.  His level of inferred attainment, as judged by his individual class teacher, will be considered in the context of how well that teacher's colleagues (in different subjects but the same building) have traditionally performed this function.  There are arbitrary elements to that surely?

Most years, pupil performance shapes the wider attainment picture; this year it'll be required to fit it.

I don't want to overstate it.  I know that pass marks etc have always got shifted around to ensure a wider pattern is conformed to.  It's been based on actual performance in the past though, a luxury that won't exist this time.

I can foresee micro sacrifices being made, to ensure that something acceptable on a macro level emerges.