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There's a formula to this. 
 
1. General media favourites
2. My team (can't put them top; that's biased)
3. Other media favourites 
4. Recently relegated, must be there or there abouts
5. Team with some players I've heard of
6. Team I know nothing about 
7. Team I know nothing about
8. Team I don't really like
9. Part time team
10. Shitter part time team


Bit tough working out who's 6th and 7th though? [emoji16]
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31 minutes ago, roman_bairn said:

 


Bit tough working out who's 6th and 7th though? emoji16.png

 

Not really, you just put the team of the two you like least in seventh or, if you dislike/like them equally, alphabetical order.  In fact for all most of the predictions above are based on some kind of analysis of squads/signings, etc,  alphabetical order is as good as any as a prediction!

Other than clarifying this point, GiGi has it spot on!

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1 hour ago, gmfc said:

Curious to see why you think Morton will finish bottom.

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

 

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8 minutes ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

This is surprisingly not complete bullshit. 

I'd be surprised if we contrived to score the same or less than last season. We played without Quitongo for more than half the season and missed Oliver for the turn of the year, who was never fit or confident after his injury.

The problem with those two missing was no decent backup. I'd say Bob McHugh and Robert Thomson are significant upgrades on Shankland and Oyenuga. 

I'd say Morton are looking pretty comfy but you never know. If we get relegated this year I'm definitely giving up football forever.

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53 minutes ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

 

With all due respect we were never outta play off spot all season bar a week or 2 ...But fair post 

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2 hours ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

Tl;dr

A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

Clearly you haven't actually looked at "early transfer market activity", if that is your chin-stroking conclusion on June 20 tbh. Morton hounded out Shankland, Oyenuga etc. and upgraded their forward line weeks ago. 

Quote

Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer

106PwpLIIXJnXi.webp

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3 hours ago, Afrojim said:

and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer

 

How are you doing, Declan?

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3 hours ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

 

:lol:

Refuse to believe this is serious

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3 hours ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

 

So many ifs in the one post. What a horrendous post. 

Should have ended after your first sentence.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Afrojim said:

It's a tad early to be making predictions as there is not much to go on at the moment. I was looking primarily at early transfer market activity, end of season form and stats from last seasons league. The transfer window doesn't shut for another couple of months so it'll be interesting to see what players Championship clubs sign and which players they lose.

In terms of form, Morton began to lose theirs at the end of last season and there was only 13 points between 4th and 9th in the end. Overall Morton won 13 games and only scored 44 goals, 44 goals is the lowest of all the teams that stayed up. If Morton lose 3 or 4 games more this season than they did last season then they will be in a relegation dogfight. Brechin and Livi will be coming into the league with momentum, Brechin weren't expected to make the play-offs let alone win them so next season is a free hit for them they will have no pressure. Livi won League One at a canter and have a number of good young players on their books (for the moment anyway). Dunfermline nearly caught Morton in the play-offs and have signed Declan McManus, if McManus can hit the ground running then they potentially have the Championship's top scorer, they also have Nicky Clark. St. Mirren's middle to end of season form was very good and if they avoid having a disastrous start to the season will finish mid-table. Inverness, Falkirk and Dundee United will likely be the best three teams and Queen of the South finish solidly in mid-table every season but may struggle a wee bit more this season than in previous years. Dumbarton will do what they usually do and claw together as many points as they can. A 15+ goals a season striker may prove the difference between Morton making the play-offs or getting relegated to League One.

 

:lol: 

Stopped reading here. 

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I thought It was a fairly even handed assessment of the league that I had made. It is all entirely "ifs" but that is what early league table predictions are, conjecture is the entire point of them. My conjecture was not entirely without precedence though.

It is not unknown for a team that finished in the play-offs one season to be relegated the next - just ask Raith Rovers. In terms of transfer activity I was fully aware that Morton had signed McHugh and Thomson and agree entirely that it is a significant upgrade on Shankland and Oyunuga but Bob McHugh isn't known for his prolific goal scoring exploits (19 goals in 112 games) and Thomson scored 11 league goals last season - although that is fairly impressive at Dumbarton. Morton's top league scorer last season was Forbes who converted just 9 out of 68 chances. 

An inability to score goals is not a new problem for Morton. Derek Lilley in 96-97 was the last player to score 15 league goals for Morton in the second tier of Scottish football. Here's Morton's goal scoring record in the second tier since Lilley scored 15 goals in one season...

16-17 -  Scored 44 the lowest of all the teams that stayed up

15-16 - Scored 39 the second lowest of all the teams that stayed up

13-14 - Scored 32 - relegated

12-13 - Scored 73 the second highest - finished second

11-12 - Scored 40 second lowest overall

10-11 - Scored 39 third lowest overall

09-10 - Scored 40 third lowest overall

08-09 - Scored 40 fourth lowest overall

07-08 - Scored 40 joint lowest

00-01 - Scored 34 lowest - relegated

99-00 - Scored 45 fourth lowest

98-99 - Scored 45 fourth highest

97-98 - Scored 40 joint lowest

96-97 - scored 42 third lowest

... It's pretty consistent is it not? Apart from two anomalous seasons (98-99 when 45 goals was bizarrely the fourth highest and 12-13 when Morton went on a goal scoring spree) Morton have struggled to score many goals at this level. To suggest that Morton may struggle to score goals next season is not an unfair comment.

This season is likely to be the most evenly balanced Championship season for a while as there's no Hearts, Hibs or Rangers to win 20+ games. There's no obvious whipping boys either, maybe Brechin will struggle but then maybe not. The 13-14 season was the last season without those three bigger clubs, Cowdenbeath finished second bottom with 11 wins that season, Morton won 13 last season. There was only 13 points between 4th and 9th last season. The margin for error next season will likely be minimal and Morton have a consistently obvious weakness. 

 

 

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Dunfermline have Dec McManus = Morton won't score any goals = who cares about defence we'll ignore that = Morton are going down.

Well can't argue with the logic, get the buckets and spades ready.

I've changed my mind. That is a fuckton of supposition.

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I'm feeling defensive towards Declan McManus already. If Nicky Clark stays as fit as he did last season (we've generally had very consistent team selection under AJ and very few niggly injuries) then it's not hard to see how McManus or one of the other supporting strikers could help improve last season's points tally. Moffat hit four goals (three of them against Morton), new St Mirren sensation Gav Reilly scored one (back in August) and David Hopkirk scored two. Moffat and Reilly also missed a number of penalties. The strikers coming in won't be expected to be miracle workers. We've kept the same solid core that finished the season (Murdoch, Talbot, Ashcroft, Morris, Wedderburn, Clark, Higginbottham) as the form team (just behind Hibs), improved our points tally each quarter and if new strikers can chip in with a few more goals. We're still looking to bring in 4 or 5 players on top of what is already a strong bulk of a team. 

We didn't beat any of the top three teams last season so that's probably the main area we have to improve upon. It wasn't as if we were getting scudded either - don't think we had anything heavier that a two goal margin against. Not missing three penalties in a game, for example, is one small way we could improve the points tally. 

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2 hours ago, Afrojim said:

I thought It was a fairly even handed assessment of the league that I had made. It is all entirely "ifs" but that is what early league table predictions are, conjecture is the entire point of them. My conjecture was not entirely without precedence though.

It is not unknown for a team that finished in the play-offs one season to be relegated the next - just ask Raith Rovers. In terms of transfer activity I was fully aware that Morton had signed McHugh and Thomson and agree entirely that it is a significant upgrade on Shankland and Oyunuga but Bob McHugh isn't known for his prolific goal scoring exploits (19 goals in 112 games) and Thomson scored 11 league goals last season - although that is fairly impressive at Dumbarton. Morton's top league scorer last season was Forbes who converted just 9 out of 68 chances. 

An inability to score goals is not a new problem for Morton. Derek Lilley in 96-97 was the last player to score 15 league goals for Morton in the second tier of Scottish football. Here's Morton's goal scoring record in the second tier since Lilley scored 15 goals in one season...

16-17 -  Scored 44 the lowest of all the teams that stayed up

15-16 - Scored 39 the second lowest of all the teams that stayed up

13-14 - Scored 32 - relegated

12-13 - Scored 73 the second highest - finished second

11-12 - Scored 40 second lowest overall

10-11 - Scored 39 third lowest overall

09-10 - Scored 40 third lowest overall

08-09 - Scored 40 fourth lowest overall

07-08 - Scored 40 joint lowest

00-01 - Scored 34 lowest - relegated

99-00 - Scored 45 fourth lowest

98-99 - Scored 45 fourth highest

97-98 - Scored 40 joint lowest

96-97 - scored 42 third lowest

... It's pretty consistent is it not? Apart from two anomalous seasons (98-99 when 45 goals was bizarrely the fourth highest and 12-13 when Morton went on a goal scoring spree) Morton have struggled to score many goals at this level. To suggest that Morton may struggle to score goals next season is not an unfair comment.

This season is likely to be the most evenly balanced Championship season for a while as there's no Hearts, Hibs or Rangers to win 20+ games. There's no obvious whipping boys either, maybe Brechin will struggle but then maybe not. The 13-14 season was the last season without those three bigger clubs, Cowdenbeath finished second bottom with 11 wins that season, Morton won 13 last season. There was only 13 points between 4th and 9th last season. The margin for error next season will likely be minimal and Morton have a consistently obvious weakness. 

 

 

Could quite easily change that stat to 16 goals in 33 starts for Falkirk or 32 goals in 65 starts overall.but clearly you have an agenda against Morton for whatever reason so go with it.

In case you don't know, a good defensive record is just as important as goals scored. There is no point in scoring 3 if you let in 4.

We had the 3rd best defensive record in the league last year and we have retained our whole defence for next season.

Edit- and the 4th best defensive record the season before behind Rangers, Hibs and Falkirk.

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2 hours ago, Afrojim said:

I thought It was a fairly even handed assessment of the league that I had made. It is all entirely "ifs" but that is what early league table predictions are, conjecture is the entire point of them. My conjecture was not entirely without precedence though.

It is not unknown for a team that finished in the play-offs one season to be relegated the next - just ask Raith Rovers. In terms of transfer activity I was fully aware that Morton had signed McHugh and Thomson and agree entirely that it is a significant upgrade on Shankland and Oyunuga but Bob McHugh isn't known for his prolific goal scoring exploits (19 goals in 112 games) and Thomson scored 11 league goals last season - although that is fairly impressive at Dumbarton. Morton's top league scorer last season was Forbes who converted just 9 out of 68 chances. 

An inability to score goals is not a new problem for Morton. Derek Lilley in 96-97 was the last player to score 15 league goals for Morton in the second tier of Scottish football. Here's Morton's goal scoring record in the second tier since Lilley scored 15 goals in one season...

16-17 -  Scored 44 the lowest of all the teams that stayed up

15-16 - Scored 39 the second lowest of all the teams that stayed up

13-14 - Scored 32 - relegated

12-13 - Scored 73 the second highest - finished second

11-12 - Scored 40 second lowest overall

10-11 - Scored 39 third lowest overall

09-10 - Scored 40 third lowest overall

08-09 - Scored 40 fourth lowest overall

07-08 - Scored 40 joint lowest

00-01 - Scored 34 lowest - relegated

99-00 - Scored 45 fourth lowest

98-99 - Scored 45 fourth highest

97-98 - Scored 40 joint lowest

96-97 - scored 42 third lowest

... It's pretty consistent is it not? Apart from two anomalous seasons (98-99 when 45 goals was bizarrely the fourth highest and 12-13 when Morton went on a goal scoring spree) Morton have struggled to score many goals at this level. To suggest that Morton may struggle to score goals next season is not an unfair comment.

This season is likely to be the most evenly balanced Championship season for a while as there's no Hearts, Hibs or Rangers to win 20+ games. There's no obvious whipping boys either, maybe Brechin will struggle but then maybe not. The 13-14 season was the last season without those three bigger clubs, Cowdenbeath finished second bottom with 11 wins that season, Morton won 13 last season. There was only 13 points between 4th and 9th last season. The margin for error next season will likely be minimal and Morton have a consistently obvious weakness. 

 

 

Are you just deciding to ignore the fact we had the 3rd best defence in the league last season?

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