2017 election post-mortem

[Savage Henry]

2 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Ayrshire is just across the sea from Northern Ireland and that's why there was likely to be a big Orange vote...Utter mince.

The real reason is that Ayr votes Tory anyway mostly because it's a well heeled area, so a small swing to the tories in the other parts of the constituency would see them take it . 

I think mr Campbell is using perceived sectarianism as a comfort blanket to distract from the SNP campaigns failings personally.

The number of people who really ought to know better, and who still take the Rev seriously on any level, is depressing.  He's a mentalist who pretends to be a minister and plays computer games.  That "analysis" can basically be reduced to: SNP good but sectarianism.

[ICTChris]

I don't think there really is an Orange vote in Scotland.  Certainly not in most of the places that the Tories made gains.

 

[Crùbag]

Alistair Campbell on fire here.

Many good points - Corbyn did well but didn't win. Labour still not united though Corbyn's enemies are understandable holding their fire. The Tories are in disarray and need the support of utter crackpots to cling onto power.

Some things are certain though. The SNP didn't lose the election and swinging wildly to the left would be a mistake. They're already as, if not more radical than Corbyn but unlike Corbyn managed to win all recent elections. They need to articulate the message on Independence though - the benefits of indy as well as the timing of Indyref2.

 

 

[Guest]

Another election this year will be disastrous for the SNP 

A shit load of reflection is needed and now is the time to really focus on devolved issues for the moment.

There is almost a morbid curiosity from a lot of Scottish voters to see what direction the UK is going to go over the next few years, in terms of what kind of Brexit there will be and whether Labour can continue their recent resurgence. 

I want Scotland to be an independent country but I am patient and am prepared to wait years, even decades for it. But the next referendum has to be winnable. At the moment Yes would get trounced.

 

[ICTChris]

12 minutes ago, Karl Fletcher said:

Another election this year will be disastrous for the SNP 

A shit load of reflection is needed and now is the time to really focus on devolved issues for the moment.

There is almost a morbid curiosity from a lot of Scottish voters to see what direction the UK is going to go over the next few years, in terms of what kind of Brexit there will be and whether Labour can continue their recent resurgence. 

I want Scotland to be an independent country but I am patient and am prepared to wait years, even decades for it. But the next referendum has to be winnable. At the moment Yes would get trounced.

I saw a couple of comments on Twitter over the weekend that this result might actually force some introspection and questioning in the SNP and the Yes movement (overlapping but not quite concentric movements).  I think the kind of euphoria about the Yes movement/SNP has maybe blinded people to the fact that they lost the referendum (convincingly)  and they've now lost hundreds of thousands of voters, several of it's best MPs and if there was another election this year then it could get worse.  I've seen a few SNP people, and not just the usual Twitter headcases, share the idea that Labour somehow paved the way for the Tories by tactical voting and that the 13 Tory MPs are Kezia's fault.  If that line of thinking permeates into the SNP leadership then they are completely fucked, it's blaming the voters.  Thankfully for the SNP their leader gave a thoughtful speech on Friday morning which suggests that it hasn't.

Having said that I've seen a few mutterings of discontent about the SNP campaign - personally I thought it was poor, seemed quite negative and personal and in the end didn't make much sense.  Faced with the Corbyn 'bounce' the line 'Vote the SNP for Corbyn' is bizarre.  You tend not to do that well with the voters if you say "Support Party A?  then vote for Party B!", the voters tend to, er, vote for Party A if they support and like Party A.  Kenny McAskill has stuck his head above the parapet to say that Peter Murrel should go, I see that Alex Neil has said that the focus on indyref2 was a mistake.  Jim Sillars has crticised the SNP as well, but you assume that he would probably criticise them if they won 96% of the vote for missing out on the final 4%.  It could be interesting to see a split develop on strategy in the SNP, the iron discipline they have kind of makes their representatives seem robotic to me.

I also think that perhaps the realignment in Scottish politics that started in the referendum and the 2015 GE is continuing.  The SNP have now lost three of the six seats they held after the 2010 GE (Moray, Angus and Banff and Buchan) and came within a few dozen votes of losing Perth and N. Perthshire.  It's always been something of an anomoly that a party that's basically left-of-centre had it's heartlands in relatively rural, relatively wealthy and relatively agricultural communities.  In England these places would be naturally Tory.  Also, in 2014 all these places voted No at higher rates than the rest of the country and in 2016 voted Remain at some of the highest rates in Scotland.  We could be seeing a move to a more conventional party politics with the Tories representing rural, wealthier areas and the SNP and Labour gaining representation in urban areas?  It might make more sense politically and maybe the detoxification of the Scottish Tories by Ruth Davidson has enabled them to make these moves in the North East and the Borders.  Even so, I think that politics is still in flux and the days of having 'solid' areas for particular parties are maybe done.  Voters seem to be changing parties significantly and that means less heartlands for everyone.  

What's interesting now is where do the parties go.  The SNP will need to continue with their role as 'Scotland's voice' even though they clearly don't reperesent all Scots.  The Scottish Tories are looking to form kind of a bloc in the utter clusterfuck of May's new government - they could potentially have a very big influence on the government if they play their cards right.  Labour seem to have benefitted from standing still but they'll look at Glasgow and think that with the momentum behind Corbyn they could take some of those seats back.  I think the Lib Dem MPs will focus on local representation, just glad to be back needing a taxi to move their MPs around.  Basically though, no-one has any idea, least of all me.

[Lex]

The Tory backbenchers will be plotting a way to get rid of Theresa, no doubt about it.

They'll give her enough rope to hang herself then tighten the noose within the first few weeks of this kangaroo parliament.

[lanky_ffc]

1 hour ago, Karl Fletcher said:

Another election this year will be disastrous for the SNP

A shit load of reflection is needed and now is the time to really focus on devolved issues for the moment.

There is almost a morbid curiosity from a lot of Scottish voters to see what direction the UK is going to go over the next few years, in terms of what kind of Brexit there will be and whether Labour can continue their recent resurgence.

I want Scotland to be an independent country but I am patient and am prepared to wait years, even decades for it. But the next referendum has to be winnable. At the moment Yes would get trounced.

This is my position as well. Had the Tories won another comfortable majority and pressed on with a hard Brexit, you'd probably see support for indy increase as the country got more and more fucked. But I'd rather not have that period of pain. Independence needs to be won on it's own merits, even if that does take a little longer than we'd hope.

[capybara]

http://derekbateman.scot/

 

Another excellent article from Bateman

[DeeTillEhDeh]

[ayrmad]

14 hours ago, Fide said:

Actually, on that particular score, I would agree with you.

I'm from Prestwick (still SNP thank f**k) and I know from personal experience that large chunks of Ayr, in particular places like Alloway, Doonfoot, Maidens etc, a large chunk of people there are either affluent, elderly or "fur coat and no knickers".  Prime Tory fodder.

I'm glad Corri Wilson got pumped out, Bill Grant's a bit of a knob but he's still a better option than the chocolate fireguard.

[Donathan]

The SNP are always keen to point out that "Scotland voted remain"

True. But that's effectively ignoring nearly 40% of voters. I'd imagine the Scottish leave vote would have gone almost exclusively to the Conservatives.

Furthermore, I would argue that the independence issue was far bigger in Scotland than Brexit was in the context of this election. Of the people who voted in both referenda, you have four subgroups: No/Remain, Yes/Remain, No/Leave and Yes/Leave (I've tried to order them by size, although the middle two are probably close with No/Remain being the largest group, and Yes/Leave by far the smallest)

I have to think the No/Remain group (of which I'm personally part of, although I no longer live in Scotland so didn't vote in a Scottish constituency this year) was probably quite good for the Conservatives as people in this group tend to care far more about protecting Scotland's place in the UK than protecting its place in the European Union. Labour would also have performed well from this cohort, although perhaps lost some votes as the Unionist voters coalesced around Ruth Davidson.

Obviously No/Leave would have been a very strongly Tory group.

Yes/Remain probably was dominated by the SNP.

The Yes/Leave group whilst small in numbers is pretty interesting. I'd imagine a lot of them voted SNP in 2015 but were now turned off by Sturgeon's approach to Brexit, so may have gone for the Conservatives now as they'd rather be part of the UK through Brexit then campaign for independence at a later date in the hope that Scotland would see the benefits of remaining separate from the EU.

[git-intae-thum]

14 minutes ago, Donathan said:

The SNP are always keen to point out that "Scotland voted remain"

True. But that's effectively ignoring nearly 40% of voters. I'd imagine the Scottish leave vote would have gone almost exclusively to the Conservatives.

Furthermore, I would argue that the independence issue was far bigger in Scotland than Brexit was in the context of this election. Of the people who voted in both referenda, you have four subgroups: No/Remain, Yes/Remain, No/Leave and Yes/Leave (I've tried to order them by size, although the middle two are probably close with No/Remain being the largest group, and Yes/Leave by far the smallest)

I have to think the No/Remain group (of which I'm personally part of, although I no longer live in Scotland so didn't vote in a Scottish constituency this year) was probably quite good for the Conservatives as people in this group tend to care far more about protecting Scotland's place in the UK than protecting its place in the European Union. Labour would also have performed well from this cohort, although perhaps lost some votes as the Unionist voters coalesced around Ruth Davidson.

Obviously No/Leave would have been a very strongly Tory group.

Yes/Remain probably was dominated by the SNP.

The Yes/Leave group whilst small in numbers is pretty interesting. I'd imagine a lot of them voted SNP in 2015 but were now turned off by Sturgeon's approach to Brexit, so may have gone for the Conservatives now as they'd rather be part of the UK through Brexit then campaign for independence at a later date in the hope that Scotland would see the benefits of remaining separate from the EU.

Yeh, but I think it would be huge mistake  for the SNP to back away from indyref2. A fall in the vote at this pre brexit election does not take away from the fact that in the long term the SNP position is likely going to be proved correct.

It will pay the snp and the wider yes movement dividends if they hold position and keep pushing for the Scottish public to get a say on its future via referendum. Leave the flip flopping to the UK politicians.

Its almost certain that as the coming catastrophe unfolds more and more folk are going to back that referendum and the ability to choose.

An easy way to win back yes/leave voters would be to cool off a wee bit on the full on EU member message and perhaps promote a Scottish EU referendum post indy. Again giving folk the ability to choose.

[Donathan]

Yeh, but I think it would be huge mistake  for the SNP to back away from indyref2. A fall in the vote at this pre brexit election does not take away from the fact that in the long term the SNP position is likely going to be proved correct.
It will pay the snp and the wider yes movement dividends if they hold position and keep pushing for the Scottish public to get a say on its future via referendum. Leave the flip flopping to the UK politicians.
Its almost certain that as the coming catastrophe unfolds more and more folk are going to back that referendum and the ability to choose.
An easy way to win back yes/leave voters would be to cool off a wee bit on the full on EU member message and perhaps promote a Scottish EU referendum post indy. Again giving folk the ability to choose.

I was against Brexit but I can't see it being a "catastrophe"

Just like Scotland could survive perfectly well as an independent country, the UK will survive perfectly well outside the European Union

[Mr Heliums]

12 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I was against Brexit but I can't see it being a "catastrophe"

 

But it will be – at least in the first few years, and most people know it. It's almost certainly why the Tories called the election in the first place.

My advice – unasked for and unnoticed – to the SNP would be to simply rise above this. Keep having a progressive voice, do the right things and it will swing back. There's absolutely no way people will put up with this Westminster shambles indefinitely. Voters are fickle. What they view as important now won't be in two years' time.

I'm most worried that people might take seriously the political pundits' widespread views that the SNP should move to the left to counter Corbyn. They're the same political pundits who thought Corbyn unelectable and Labour dead six weeks ago. People voted for him for the same reason a lot voted for Brexit – an opportunity to give a bloody nose to those who took its votes for granted. The idea he might actually win it may not even have occurred to them. But it will next time. We should look at Scottish Labour as an example of what not to do. I think you could just about pick any policy area – from council housing to tuition fees – where they haven't had cravenly inconsistent views to suit what they think might get them a few votes. It's the reason I'll never vote Labour again.

Yes, there's an argument we should stop talking about indyref, but to be fair, the SNP didn't talk about it. It was the unionist side that kept doing this time and time again. The failing of the SNP was to influence the narrative. If they can switch it to where it was loudest in June last year – listen to Scotland's voice, give Scotland a say – and Brexit is the disaster I think it will be, voters will reassess.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, Mr Heliums said:

But it will be – at least in the first few years, and most people know it. It's almost certainly why the Tories called the election in the first place.

My advice – unasked for and unnoticed – to the SNP would be to simply rise above this. Keep having a progressive voice, do the right things and it will swing back. There's absolutely no way people will put up with this Westminster shambles indefinitely. Voters are fickle. What they view as important now won't be in two years' time.

I'm most worried that people might take seriously the political pundits' widespread views that the SNP should move to the left to counter Corbyn. They're the same political pundits who thought Corbyn unelectable and Labour dead six weeks ago. People voted for him for the same reason a lot voted for Brexit – an opportunity to give a bloody nose to those who took its votes for granted. The idea he might actually win it may not even have occurred to them. But it will next time. We should look at Scottish Labour as an example of what not to do. I think you could just about pick any policy area – from council housing to tuition fees – where they haven't had cravenly inconsistent views to suit what they think might get them a few votes. It's the reason I'll never vote Labour again.

Yes, there's an argument we should stop talking about indyref, but to be fair, the SNP didn't talk about it. It was the unionist side that kept doing this time and time again. The failing of the SNP was to influence the narrative. If they can switch it to where it was loudest in June last year – listen to Scotland's voice, give Scotland a say – and Brexit is the disaster I think it will be, voters will reassess.

Yip. The snp do not need to move left or right. Just remain steady and keep offering democracy. 

[NotThePars]

The SNP haven't talked about the referendum but they've allowed - or been unable to stop - the discourse in Scotland to focus on the referendum. Whether they need to publicly cool their jets so to speak or lay down a program at Holyrood that can take the initiative back from Davidson and Corbyn I don't know. Scotland and the referendum was dominated by the belief a fairer, more radical Scotland was possible but that's been overshadowed by arguably the same discussion taking place down south. Now we've got people arguing that the Yes movement was too radical and that needs to be tempered to win the centre right over? Well atm with a resurgent Labour led by a noticeably to the left leader that's going to risk the centre left/ left that got swept up in 2014. It's a difficult, really difficult, balancing act that Sturgeon et al have to absolutely nail or the indy movement is doomed in the short term. You can argue that one of the biggest mistakes in hindsight was the Yes movement and its momentum being co-opted by the SNP and their 2015 general election result has meant, rightly or wrongly, that the SNP is seen even more now as the face of the movement.

 

[Mr Heliums]

I think the SNP always has been the face of Yes, and I can't see that changing. I mean it would be great if other parties were to support it, but the effect of that might be to weaken the SNP and allow a unionist coalition in the Scottish Parliament. And we'll never get an indyref then.

I do think the best thing to do is to nothing more than carry on a social democratic government in Scotland, be positive and consistent and let events take their course. The enthusiasm over Corbyn won't last - he can't manage his own party so surely people will question whether he can run a country - and the brighter Ruth Davidson's start shines the closer she comes to being found out.

Even a rising tide has to go out before it comes in again.

[NotThePars]

The SNP and the Tories have been guilty once of underestimating what Corbyn can do. Now that it seems like the slugs of the PLP are queueing up to kiss the ring, his opponents should probably be doing a bit more than sitting back and hoping it collapses. It's all just hypotheticals atm though. The SNP, IMO, need to do something though. They're being outflanked on the constitutional issue and from the left which were two previous vote winners for them.

[vikingTON]

They're really not being 'outflanked on the constitutional issue': there is absolutely nothing new on the table from the three Britnat parties; the pro-independence parties have a majority at Holyrood and support for independence remains unchanged.  

You're mistaking a more efficient split of the Britnat vote for a change in popular opinion.

Meanwhile the question of what 'Corbyn can do' is going to be sorely tested. He remains without a scrap of political power and has to actually conduct an effective parliamentary opposition - a task that he has complete failed at since becoming leader. Given the prospect of the government's slender majority now being undone by a handful of rebels, Labour's abject shitebaggery will not be given as much of a free pass. 

[Andy_AUFC]

On 12/06/2017 at 08:04, Fide said:

Actually, on that particular score, I would agree with you.

I'm from Prestwick (still SNP thank f**k) and I know from personal experience that large chunks of Ayr, in particular places like Alloway, Doonfoot, Maidens etc, a large chunk of people there are either affluent, elderly or "fur coat and no knickers".  Prime Tory fodder.

I think Corri Wilson being caught up in an expenses debarcle with Chic Brodie concurrent to a number of her family members as caseworkers etc would of made her look like abit of a bellend to voters.

Moreover, she seems to be having a bit of a heads gone on Twitter since being outsted...