Junior football, what is the future?

[Che Dail]

1 hour ago, AsimButtHitsASix said:

ETA: I'm a boring statto at times and the following has nothing to do with the future of the juniors. Feel free to skip

I realise the conversation may have moved on from this nonsense but I like looking up stats to kill time at work so made a list of the ten countries closest to Scotland in terms of population: Bosnia, Georgie, Croatia, Ireland, Norway, Slovenia, Finland, Denmark, Serbia and Bulgaria. None of these ten countries have four national leagues before splitting regionally but that's a bit immaterial. What's more important is the number of clubs they have before regional splits.

Bosnia's only national division is their top tier which has an average attendance of 1,793. This is the highest average attendance before any of the eleven nations goes regional. In return their national team is higher ranked than Scotland's but their league system is not. It's a bit of a red herring as about half of their regular squad players (+25 caps and included in last squad) actually came through youth systems outside Bosnia due to the Bosnian diaspora caused by the Yugoslav war. Of the ones remaining the vast majority all came through the same club: Zelicnicar. Because of their league system being an outlier and the different way in which their national team has brought players through they can be discounted.

Of the nine remaining they all do a regional split (or their league system ends) after two national leagues. Scotland, with 42 "national" clubs has more than the next closest (Norway, Serbia and Bulgaria all have 32). Georgia and Ireland only has 20 with the rest in the middle.

Speaking, again, of outliers, Finland and Norway have population densities of 14 and 16 people per km squared. Scotland is sitting about average on 68. Having national league systems for such scattered populations in such large countries is probably impossible when you reach the level/crowds in these countries so we're discounting them as well. For what it's worth Norway's last national tier has average attendances of 1,444 and Finland's has 885. There is a HUGE drop off in attendances below this. It is possible to get from  Inverness to Dumfries and back in a day. It is just not possible to get from the main, southern, population centres of these countries to the main northern population centres in the same time frame.

So of the seven remaining only one has a higher co-efficient than Scotland and that's Denmark who also have a higher ranked national team. They have a higher population density in comparison (135) but they also have a strange geography with an island being the main population centre and it makes geographic sense, especially back when the Danish league was created, to split it along these lines. Denmark's 2nd tier has an average attendance of 1,346 but, again, there's a huge drop off to third tier with average attendances around 348.

Aside from Denmark the only other nations with a higher international ranking are Ireland and Croatia. Ireland are, again, an outlier like Bosnia as not a single one of their squad players came through the Irish league system. For what it's worth Ireland's lowest national tier has an average attendance of 488. Croatia's lowest tier is 443 but, as previously mentioned, they have a strange geography which makes a national league system at the level below impossible. Like Bosnia and Ireland the also have players who came through in foreign nations or through one exceptional youth system at Dinamo Zagreb.

Now, with the lowest national tier average attendance in brackets, that leaves Georgia (407), Slovenia (277), Serbia (620) and Bulgaria (271) who, according to UEFA, have a lower standard national team and national league who we can make a direct comparison with Scotland with. Ireland (488) and Croatia (443)  have a better national team but it is little to do with their league system which ranked lower than ours. Only Denmark (1,346) can claim to be the better of Scotland when making reasonable comparisons to country size and geography and even that is at a stretch considering the maritime geography of the place.

The truth is only Denmark, of those nations, possibly have the ability to extend their national league system. Poor crowds, geography and population density just make it impossible for those we can compare ourselves to by population. Our lowest national tier has average attendance of 497 which is the lower end of the scale across Europe but not noticeably so. It's probably the same figure Denmark would have if their better 3rd tier teams had a national league and the better supported clubs gravitated toward it. Also, of the eleven nations mentioned, Scoland has, comfortably, the highest average attendance in their national league system.

If you want to compare us with anyone the only possible comparison is Denmark really. Now you need to prove their better record in UEFA competition and in international competition is because players don't travel from Aalborg to Copenhagen twice a year in the third division.

Cheers - good stuff  and IS relevant to the topic, because ultimately, long-term, the future for Junior clubs is in the league system! 

I highlighted your "None of these ten countries have four national leagues before splitting regionally but that's a bit immaterial" 

It's not immaterial - I think it is significant - Scotland is the Outlier!  

Anyway, TBC  - although Some folk are not willing / able / prepared to even consider that radical thought and prefer to focus on the exciting detail: WHO'S THE NEXT WoS TEAM??  

[Ross.]

19 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Ive heard there were secret meetings but I can’t imagine Clydebank’s board will be terribly chuffed if one of them has gone rogue, needs confirmation? Had been told the last ditch attempt failed anyway.

If the rumour above is true then I don't really see it as going rogue. It's an attempt to get us into the pyramid which is what we want. How it is done is largely irrelevant to me as long as it happens.

[Gordon EF]

26 minutes ago, Che Dail said:

Cheers - good stuff  and IS relevant to the topic, because ultimately, long-term, the future for Junior clubs is in the league system! 

I highlighted your "None of these ten countries have four national leagues before splitting regionally but that's a bit immaterial" 

It's not immaterial - I think it is significant - Scotland is the Outlier!  

Anyway, TBC  - although Some folk are not willing / able / prepared to even consider that radical thought and prefer to focus on the exciting detail: WHO'S THE NEXT WoS TEAM??  

The more important question regarding regionalisation really is how many clubs play in the 'national' leagues, as ABHAS goes on to say.

Country A has tier one of 20 clubs and regionises at tier 2. Country B has two national leagues of 10 and then regionalises at tier 3. From the clubs point of view, regionlisation comes in at the same point. Only the top 20 clubs play in a national league, regardless of how many tiers there are.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Gordon EF

[glensmad]

39 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

...Had been told the last ditch attempt failed anyway.

If that is the case, should the clubs not be told ?

[lowenan]

29 minutes ago, Che Dail said:

It is possible to get from  Inverness to Dumfries and back in a day. It is just not possible to get from the main, southern, population centres of these countries to the main northern population centres in the same time frame.

It is. You fly. That’s why teams from northern Norway often play in regional leagues with teams from Oslo. Easy to reach when flying.

[stulch]

I think a bigger impact would be a sixteen team top league with the ugly sisters just playing each other twice but that's unlikely to ever happen now they're back together again. Hey, but that's for another thread anyway...

[AsimButtHitsASix]

3 minutes ago, lowenan said:

It is. You fly. That’s why teams from northern Norway often play in regional leagues with teams from Oslo. Easy to reach when flying.

That's true and I hadn't considered it as a mode of transport. I thought everything was done by dogsled up there

Edited February 24, 2020 by AsimButtHitsASix

[Doonhamer1969]

23 hours ago, FairWeatherFan said:

You're not going to see 10 clubs from the SoSFL.

You'll be lucky if you see 1.

[stulch]

That's true and I hadn't considered it as a mode of transport. I thought everything was done by dogsled up there

No, haven't you heard of global warming. [emoji12]

[AsimButtHitsASix]

Just now, stulch said:

No, haven't you heard of global warming.

No wonder if the Norwegian version of Golspie Sutherland are flying to Oslo every other weekend

[morley]

All the chat if national or regional leagues equals international success for me misses the point. The key is there being development routes for players to follow right from ameteur/boys club to the top. When Scotland was most successful in the 60, 70, 80s, you look at those players and almost all of them spent their mid to late teens learning and playing competitive men's football for their local junior/non league/smaller senior teams before moving straight to big Scottish or English clubs. What changed was that in the late 80s the big Scottish clubs started picking the best young talents at 10/11 years old where they would spend the next 6 years playing bounce games, made into robots, and forgetting the fun, instead of letting the players develop with their mates playing for their local home sides. For me it doesn't matter if lower leagues are regional or national, the key is there being a development ladder players can follow which a true pyramid system starts to put back in place having been lost 30 years ago. Its very early days but there is already suggestions things are changing in the LL/EOS region where over the past few years started seeing spfl scouts coming to watch games when did that last happen? , spfl clubs are starting to lend young players out the these clubs. Also seen non leaugue pyramid youth teams doing well in the Scottish Youth cup as they qualify with being senior. Once a proper pyramid is in place across all of Scotland creating that link all the way to grass roots football from the top that is when you maybe start seeing more international success, not because a league is regional or national, but because a pyramid route will be in place that young players can follow. 

[LongTimeLurker]

10 minutes ago, Doonhamer1969 said:

You'll be lucky if you see 1.

Bonnyton seems like a safe bet.

[AsimButtHitsASix]

I think the main point that everyone misses about international success is just that the game has changed from the glory days. When I saw my first Scotland game UEFA had about half the members it has now. In that same time period the amount of European clubs at the World Cup hasn't doubled. In that same time period the Champions of Scotland have went from needing to win 5 ties to reach the final of European competition to needing to win 5 ties to reach the group stages of European competition. Whereas brilliant German, Spanish, French, English teams missed out on the European Cup and allowed Rangers/Celtic/Aberdeen/Dundee United to come up against Irish and Luxembourgish part timers until after Christmas now they are giving direct placement ahead of our clubs despite finishing 3rd or 4th.

Scotland is, for its size, history, financial power and attendances is doing about average. We see Croatia, Slovenia, Iceland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Belgium, etc have golden generations and have a great 5-10 years and say "WHY CAN'T WE DO THAT?" while completely ignoring the fact that each of these teams have, at some point in the last 30 years, also been total gubbins. It's cyclical to a degree. There will, almost always, be another "wee" nation doing better than us but we focus on them and ignore the dozen or so similar sized nations we're doing better than.

Abbey Vale moving to a WoS league wont change that

Edited February 24, 2020 by AsimButtHitsASix

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

If that is the case, should the clubs not be told ?

Believe the LL position is theres no PWG to take option W or whatever to so they’re cracking on with their wosl plans. My club wasnt even told this meeting was happening so doubt you’ll be told it failed?

[Doonhamer1969]

23 hours ago, Pyramidic said:

I will go for:

39 WRJFA clubs
13 SoSFL clubs
2 Amateur clubs

54 clubs on the move to the WoSFL.

No way are 13 SoS clubs moving to the WoS.

[Doonhamer1969]

7 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Bonnyton seems like a safe bet.

Yes, forgot about them for a moment. You wont see a D&G club , is what i meant to say.

Only possibility is Threave, but i doubt that.

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I predict [emoji6]25 west region clubs and around 5 others have expressed formal interest and indicated they will apply.

[Jock Tamson]

Would someone be able to tell me what this Brechin thing is about please?

Thanks

[RossBFaeDundee]

8 minutes ago, Jock Tamson said:

Would someone be able to tell me what this Brechin thing is about please?

Thanks

If relegated they would go to the Highland League due to being above the line set at the River Tay, but the club wish to play in the Lowland League due to many of their players living around the Central Belt and the fact that they train there.

[TFW]

18 hours ago, EdinburghBlue said:

 

I’ve seen an analysis that since automatic promotion and relegation were introduced in 1987, roughly a third of Football League clubs relegated have returned, a third are still in the Conference, and a third are either at a lower level or have gone bust.

Of the 27 ex-Conference teams currently in the Football League, 18 had at least one previous spell in the EFL. So a lot of clubs are shuttling back and forwards.

No reason why this can’t happen in Scotland over time.

PS a bit OTT to claim Berwick are struggling when they haven’t even completed their first non-league season!

 

Re Berwick, they're definitely struggling. Sixth from bottom having won 6 drawn 6 and lost 12 of their 24 league games thus far.