Junior football, what is the future?

[RabidAl]

I would imagine that both Bo'ness and Pollock would manage full-time football if they made it through to tier 2; for that matter, it'd be interesting to see if East Kilbride and Cumbernauld could do the same - I see them as similar to Livingston as a 'new' club from a well-populated area that could attract a decent support if in a higher league.  From current SPFL clubs, Peterhead and maybe Arbroath, Stirling and Elgin have the home support to think about going full time if surrounded by full timers in the second tier.

The point about playing regionally is really that local away supports can be 50% or more of the 'away' team's core home support, who are keen to attend a game involving their team that is just along the road.  Yet perhaps only 10%* of a core home support is willing to travel for longer distances/times of, say, over an hour each way.  (By 'core home support' I mean total attendance minus the away support, since average attendances can be very misleading as to the actual support that a club has.)  In local matches, you can almost end up with two sets of home supports.

The idea is to bolster the attendances at part time clubs through local matches/local away supports until the point where promotion leads to the bigger travelling supports of full time clubs filling the away end, at which point you can charge higher ticket prices; it is about continuity of income, and is a more sustainable model for semi professional clubs than playing nationally, relying on a payment from the SPFL and high ticket prices (which suppress supporter numbers) to fund a similar quality of player to the best of the non-leagues.

The bottom line is that many people who are inclined to go to the football every week cannot do so because of the cost of travel - in terms of both time and money - is too prohibitive for them.  So there is a dead-weight loss of money to the game (for full time clubs, too) due to an unnecessary number of fixtures being played on a national basis.

No, I don't think that just because they are currently doing it, the SPFL clubs must have thought of everything or are necessarily doing the most astute thing financially.

*Exceptions being the Old Firm because glory-hunting supporters, like weeds, can turn up anywhere; and Aberdeen because their much-heralded 'away' support are mostly exiles settled within the central belt for work, etc (for this reason, it is actually their home support that disproportionately small).  

[Jambo'ness]

13 minutes ago, RabidAl said:

I would imagine that both Bo'ness and Pollock would manage full-time football if they made it through to tier 2; for that matter, it'd be interesting to see if East Kilbride and Cumbernauld could do the same - I see them as similar to Livingston as a 'new' club from a well-populated area that could attract a decent support if in a higher league.  From current SPFL clubs, Peterhead and maybe Arbroath, Stirling and Elgin have the home support to think about going full time if surrounded by full timers in the second tier.

The point about playing regionally is really that local away supports can be 50% or more of the 'away' team's core home support, who are keen to attend a game involving their team that is just along the road.  Yet perhaps only 10%* of a core home support is willing to travel for longer distances/times of, say, over an hour each way.  (By 'core home support' I mean total attendance minus the away support, since average attendances can be very misleading as to the actual support that a club has.)  In local matches, you can almost end up with two sets of home supports.

The idea is to bolster the attendances at part time clubs through local matches/local away supports until the point where promotion leads to the bigger travelling supports of full time clubs filling the away end, at which point you can charge higher ticket prices; it is about continuity of income, and is a more sustainable model for semi professional clubs than playing nationally, relying on a payment from the SPFL and high ticket prices (which suppress supporter numbers) to fund a similar quality of player to the best of the non-leagues.

The bottom line is that many people who are inclined to go to the football every week cannot do so because of the cost of travel - in terms of both time and money - is too prohibitive for them.  So there is a dead-weight loss of money to the game (for full time clubs, too) due to an unnecessary number of fixtures being played on a national basis.

No, I don't think that just because they are currently doing it, the SPFL clubs must have thought of everything or are necessarily doing the most astute thing financially.

*Exceptions being the Old Firm because glory-hunting supporters, like weeds, can turn up anywhere; and Aberdeen because their much-heralded 'away' support are mostly exiles settled within the central belt for work, etc (for this reason, it is actually their home support that disproportionately small).  

Whilst I agree with the rest of your post, I have to take issue with the opening sentence.  No way are we big enough to go full-time.

[ONeils40yarder]

On 2/3/2018 at 09:21, cmontheloknow said:

Really? I'd say they were pretty similar to a number of Junior / senior non-league towns. What I would say though is that a club can realistically hope to get no more than 10% of its population along to games - anything in excess of that and they're doing very well.

Just taking the current top 50...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_towns_and_cities_in_Scotland_by_population

In the top division, you get:

Aberdeen 8% (much bigger catchment than the city)
Celtic 9% (catchment well beyond city though)
Dundee 4% (two club city)
Hamilton 5% (too close to Glasgow)
Hearts 4% (two big club city)
Hibs 4% (two big club city)
Kilmarnock 12% (figure boosted by OF attendances doubling average)
Motherwell 17% (some big travelling supports - also have to factor in M'well attract support from joined-on Wishaw, Craigneuk etc which drops it below 10%)
Partick Thistle <1% (OF)
Rangers 8% (catchment well beyond Glasgow)
Ross County 85% (catchment across the North)
St. Johnstone 9%

Only a few get above 10% and that is with either a much larger catchment area than their town (OF / Ross Co) or they benefit from large gates from the clubs with fans who will travel. Average excluding Ross County is 7%.

Brechin 11% (huge crowd vs Dundee Utd, big crowd v Dunfermline)
Dumbarton 5%
Dundee Utd 4% (two club city)
Dunfermline 11%
Falkirk 13%
Inverness CT 5%
Livingston 2%
Morton 5%
QOS 4%
St. Mirren 6%

Average for Championship is 7%

Airdrie 2%
Albion Rovers 1%
Alloa 3%
Arbroath 3%
Ayr 3%
East Fife 7%
Forfar 5%
Queen's Park 0.1%
Raith Rovers 4%
Stranraer 5%

L1 average (QP excluded) is 4%

Annan 4%
Berwick 4%
Clyde 1%
Cowdenbeath 3%
Edinburgh City 0.07%
Elgin  3%
Montrose 4%
Peterhead 3%
Stenhousemuir 2% (of Larbert and Stenhousemuir)
Stirling 2%

L2 average (Ed City excluded) 2%

So what do these figures show, if anything? The % of population attending goes up the higher the league. A more accurate way to do it would be to completely exclude outliers (ie Dundee Utd giving Brechin home 5 gates in one) but that's for someone else to do! Realistically, part-time national clubs can expect to get no more than 4% of their population to attend. I have a LL attendance for comparision, Dalbeattie 3%.

I've seen this suggested umpteen times, and its something that irks me, although I realise the overall points you are trying to make.

 

Motherwell and Wishaw are no more 'joined on' than Hamilton and Blantyre, as for distance to Glasgow from Motherwell and Hamilton, I'd imagine both are almost equi-distant. As for Craigneuk, if you knew anything about that area, you'd probably know there won't be many 'well fans kicking about there.

 

The facts are that Motherwell is a town of 30,000 or so people, and roughly 4,000 people go along to support them...its an exceptional percentage that only Ross County blows out the water.

[santheman]

Knew it was too good to last.

At least we got one weekend actually discussing JUNIOR football.

[Goalie Hamish]

2 hours ago, santheman said:

Knew it was too good to last.

At least we got one weekend actually discussing JUNIOR football.

But you came on here to comment

[santheman]

20 minutes ago, Goalie Hamish said:

But you came on here to comment

So did you so what

[Jambo'ness]

3 hours ago, santheman said:

Knew it was too good to last.

At least we got one weekend actually discussing JUNIOR football.

Maybe we would make some progress if we stopped making the distinction between junior football and senior football.

Amazingly enough, it is all FOOTBALL.

[santheman]

4 minutes ago, Jambo'ness said:

Maybe we would make some progress if we stopped making the distinction between junior football and senior football.

Amazingly enough, it is all FOOTBALL.

Sorry I was under the impression this was the Junior Football forum.

Please accept my sincere apologies

[Goalie Hamish]

1 hour ago, santheman said:

So did you so what

For somehow who professes not to care a jot about these discussions, you ain't half on here a lot telling us you don't care.

Top tip - ignore the thread.

[Jambo'ness]

1 minute ago, santheman said:

Sorry I was under the impression this was the Junior Football forum.

Please accept my sincere apologies

Putting aside your lame attempt at sarcasm, it is indeed the Junior Football forum.  However, please also note this is a thread called 'Junior football, what is the future?'

As the future will most likely mean a complete overhaul in the current Junior game, it is sensible to discuss football as a whole.

[Sergeant Wilson]

8 hours ago, RabidAl said:

I would imagine that both Bo'ness and Pollock would manage full-time football if they made it through to tier 2; for that matter, it'd be interesting to see if East Kilbride and Cumbernauld could do the same - I see them as similar to Livingston as a 'new' club from a well-populated area that could attract a decent support if in a higher league.  From current SPFL clubs, Peterhead and maybe Arbroath, Stirling and Elgin have the home support to think about going full time if surrounded by full timers in the second tier.

 

Away and don't talk rubbish. It's that kind of thinking that bankrupts clubs.

I know this is a bit of a hobby for you, but that post betrays a total lack of understanding about football, finances, club potential and general knowledge.

Any example of potential that includes Livingston as an aspiration is off to a bad start. You'd be as well throwing St Bernards in to create a healthy rivalry for Edinburgh City.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Sergeant Wilson

[Garret Deasy]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Away and don't talk rubbish. It's that kind of thinking that bankrupts clubs.

I know this is a bit of a hobby for you, but that post betrays a total lack of understanding about football, finances, club potential and general knowledge.

Any example of potential that includes Livingston as an aspiration is off to a bad start. You'd be as well throwing St Bernards in to create a healthy rivalry for Edinburgh City.

Thank you Sgt Wilson for some common sense.

You have so called full time clubs paying peanuts. In some cases £200 per week, or even less. Speaking to an agent he tries to get these young lads to go part time. They basically can't afford to live a normal life,(things like mortgage, credit rating - no chance)  but they are sold 'the dream' by their clubs. "A few good games with us and you will be picked up by a 'big' club, even Celtic/Rangers/Liverpool/Chelsea/Barcelona." The reality is most of them are 'let go' at some point.

Know of an ex Cetic player (about 25 games for them), then down south with a number of clubs. Eventually played junior and wished he had done it years ago while getting some education and job skills. You only have to listen to the pundits on Radio Scotland to realise the only skills these guys have is to talk about football now they can't play.

Many players in Div 1 and 2 will after a midweek game have their overalls on the next morning digging holes in the road or painting someones house.

[Sergeant Wilson]

11 minutes ago, Garret Deasy said:

Thank you Sgt Wilson for some common sense.

You have so called full time clubs paying peanuts. In some cases £200 per week, or even less. Speaking to an agent he tries to get these young lads to go part time. They basically can't afford to live a normal life,(things like mortgage, credit rating - no chance)  but they are sold 'the dream' by their clubs. "A few good games with us and you will be picked up by a 'big' club, even Celtic/Rangers/Liverpool/Chelsea/Barcelona." The reality is most of them are 'let go' at some point.

Know of an ex Cetic player (about 25 games for them), then down south with a number of clubs. Eventually played junior and wished he had done it years ago while getting some education and job skills. You only have to listen to the pundits on Radio Scotland to realise the only skills these guys have is to talk about football now they can't play.

Many players in Div 1 and 2 will after a midweek game have their overalls on the next morning digging holes in the road or painting someones house.

The worst contract I seen was full time for  £125.00pw. It was pointed out that "he gets bonuses as well and he lives with his family".

It's every bit as immoral as paying them too much and bumping your creditors.

[parsforlife]

There are full time players on absolute buttons. Its all very well saying they should earn a trade but for the bampot neds who thought signing a pro-youth form at 12 was them half-way to making it big so fannyied about in school before signing full time as quick as they could I'm not exactly sure their potential in the real world is particularly high.

 

I know that doesn't apply for all but for those that do the idea of avoiding real work and being able to tell everyone in their local shitty nightclub their a pro footballer is quite appealing to them.

 

There the odd one on two that earn extra in evenings etc but it's not true for many, I have heard in the past that a lot of lower league clubs in scandenavia train 4 days a week with the players taking an approach similar to students by working evenings/days off/in the off-season.

 

It would certainly be an interesting model for a club here to approach.

 

[Jambo'ness]

2 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

There are full time players on absolute buttons. Its all very well saying they should earn a trade but for the bampot neds who thought signing a pro-youth form at 12 was them half-way to making it big so fannyied about in school before signing full time as quick as they could I'm not exactly sure their potential in the real world is particularly high.

I know that doesn't apply for all but for those that do the idea of avoiding real work and being able to tell everyone in their local shitty nightclub their a pro footballer is quite appealing to them.

There the odd one on two that earn extra in evenings etc but it's not true for many, I have heard in the past that a lot of lower league clubs in scandenavia train 4 days a week with the players taking an approach similar to students by working evenings/days off/in the odd-season.

It would certainly be an interesting model for a club here to approach.

Pro-youth football is one of the reasons that Junior football has declined in quality over the last few years.  Before, the youths would join a junior side from their juvenile team, then make the step-up to senior.  That path has almost disappeared recently.  Only now with community clubs bringing through their own players are we going to see an improvement.

[lithgierose]

8 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

There are full time players on absolute buttons. Its all very well saying they should earn a trade but for the bampot neds who thought signing a pro-youth form at 12 was them half-way to making it big so fannyied about in school before signing full time as quick as they could I'm not exactly sure their potential in the real world is particularly high.

 

I know that doesn't apply for all but for those that do the idea of avoiding real work and being able to tell everyone in their local shitty nightclub their a pro footballer is quite appealing to them.

 

There the odd one on two that earn extra in evenings etc but it's not true for many, I have heard in the past that a lot of lower league clubs in scandenavia train 4 days a week with the players taking an approach similar to students by working evenings/days off/in the off-season.

 

It would certainly be an interesting model for a club here to approach.

 

Did hamilton not have an apprentice scheme years ago in the new ind est near the ground.

[parsforlife]

Did hamilton not have an apprentice scheme years ago in the new ind est near the ground.

Not sure, quite a few clubs u20 players are on apprenticeship contracts, but the players tend to study sport courses and I'm doubtful many have used any qualifications to start an alternative career when they get released.

[RabidAl]

On 2/3/2018 at 10:05, Jack Burton said:

Reginonalising leagues one and two would make little difference to the travelling. Regardless of what way you do it you will still have outliers like Stranraer, Berwick, Peterhead etc. Instead of going up to Peterhead we would have Stranraer.

The majority of players for the likes of Peterhead don't live in the Highlands. We played them at Broadwood last Sat and it would have been less travelling for most of their players than a home game.

Doesn't the team bus travel to the away ground and back again, regardless of where some players live?  It's probably a substantial recurring cost for clubs that can only be mitigated by playing in away matches that are closer to home.

[RabidAl]

On 2/3/2018 at 10:37, Jambo'ness said:

Interesting set of figures.  If anything, they give hope to a club like mine.  Bo'ness had a population of just under 15,000 in 2008, now increased.  I would be confident that entering into a structure where we could progress would see our gates exceed the 1000 mark, the higher we went,  thus roughly giving us 15%.  So even getting to L2 would see us outstrip the current incumbents.

Conjecture I know but based on our support at Junior level through the years.

If this is accurate, then your club would support full-time football quite comfortably in a tier 2 containing mostly full-time clubs.  It would also manage full-time football in the current tier 3, if it opted for the full-time younger player model that Airdrie, with a core home support of maybe 750 or so, were operating last season.

[RabidAl]

14 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Away and don't talk rubbish. It's that kind of thinking that bankrupts clubs.

I know this is a bit of a hobby for you, but that post betrays a total lack of understanding about football, finances, club potential and general knowledge.

Any example of potential that includes Livingston as an aspiration is off to a bad start. You'd be as well throwing St Bernards in to create a healthy rivalry for Edinburgh City.

Yes, it is a (n intermittent) hobby for me - as it is for most of us who post around here; everyone has their prejudices and is entitled to try to discuss and explain them (I hope).

I note your comments about Livingston, who are managing full-time football quite well at the moment with a core home support of 700-800 and decent away supports from the full-time clubs who they play almost fortnightly.  As a 'new' club in a large town, I take them as comparable to East Kilbride and Cumbernauld.

I'm also interested to see how Edinburgh City and Cove (assuming they'll be promoted) will do in terms of attracting more supporters over the long term in the SPFL.  Since they are clubs of a metropolitan area (and Aberdeen is a 'one club city'), they might well attract enough support over the long term to go full-time.

But the current SPFL league structure isn't conducive to progressing clubs towards full-time football, and perhaps even inhibits current full-timers from staying that way.