The DUP

[LongTimeLurker]

Resorting to ad hominens is usually a sign that you are unable to address the core point being made.

To recap that was that the second best outcome for the sparser populated peripheral northern and western portions of the British Isles to still having unhindered access in economic terms to both the wider EU market and the very large England&Wales one in the immediate vicinity (i.e what would have happened if the UK had told Nigel Farage to do one and remained part of the EU) could wind up being NI's have your cake and eat it too status as the only part of the UK to still effectively be in the EU's single market.

Jury is still out on that one as a lot depends on how problematic the Irish Sea customs checks wind up being in practice so only time will tell obviously.

Edited October 11, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[williemillersmoustache]

It's a guy doing one man comedy in his house. I don't think Gabriel Byrne was available to play the Republic. 

[LongTimeLurker]

6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

If there's a rational Government in London post independence, it might be possible to work out a Liechtenstein type deal, who have single market arrangements with both Switzerland and the EU. 

The problem with that line of reasoning is that Switzerland is part of the EU's single market and Schengen due to a deal signed after a failed entry referendum. The rational outcome in a similar vein would simply be UK reentry to the EU but that's probably not happening for another generation because if/when it does get back on the political agenda the terms probably won't be as flexible as previously on the opt outs on integration that even a sizable chunk of Remain voters were supportive of.

An angle that often gets overlooked in all of this is that an EU without the UK is nothing like as good for the RoI's corporation tax escapades as an EU with the UK in place acting as a handbrake on deeper integration and maintaining close ties to the United States:

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-uk-border-trade/

In 2014, independence meant leaving the EU with no guaranteed route back and the likelihood of having a new Scottish currency and a relatively hard border at the Solway and Tweed despite what Alex was saying. Now a pathway to the single market and eventual EU entry would probably be a relative skoosh so the second part of that equation is less daunting than the prospect of being left on the outside of both the UK and EU markets to discourage separatist movements elsewhere was last time around, but there are still issues involved that could be a tough sell on the doorstep.

Edited October 11, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

In 2014, independence meant leaving the EU with no guaranteed route back and the likelihood of having a new Scottish currency and a relatively hard border at the Solway and Tweed despite what Alex was saying. Now a pathway to the single market and eventual EU entry would probably be a relative skoosh so the second part of that equation is less daunting than the prospect of being left on the outside of both the UK and EU markets to discourage separatist movements elsewhere was last time around, but there are still issues involved that could be a tough sell on the doorstep.

Alex just hoped the currency question would go away if he didn't pay any attention to it. The Bank of England and the Treasury were acting directly as a propaganda outlet for the London Government in 2014, if there had been a clear Yes vote they would have been far more cooperative on currency,  trade and open borders, England had too much to lose. Even Spain said they'd have no problem accepting an independent Scotland into the EU so long as we followed the constitutional path, I think we'd already be back in if we'd voted Yes. 

[LongTimeLurker]

15 hours ago, welshbairn said:

...I think we'd already be back in if we'd voted Yes. 

Which would have been a better scenario in economic terms than the one that would have to unfold now, so if many swing voters saw it that way and didn't find hard border scenarios credible it may be more difficult to convince that portion of the electorate to take the plunge next time around using pragmatic arguments that now have to revolve around a seperate currency and a customs union type land border at the Solway and Tweed as the final destination rather than all of the British Isles being in the EU.

There is a school of thought out there at the moment that the reason Boris & Co are kicking up a fuss about the NIP right now is that it is actually working too well for NI from their standpoint in a way that will help to highlight what a huge mistake Brexit was for the rest of the UK. Meanwhile the DUP are doing what they need to do to try to claw back support from TUV among the 30% or so of visceral level Unionists in NI electoral terms who were never going to be comfortable with customs checks at Larne, but the flip side to all this is that being fully open to goods from the EU but also to services & government subsidy from the UK isn't necessarily the scenario that makes a rapid move to UI look good in pragmatic terms to SDLP and SF voters in NI unlike what could have happened with a no deal Brexit.

[ICTJohnboy]

On 12/10/2021 at 11:24, LongTimeLurker said:

Which would have been a better scenario in economic terms than the one that would have to unfold now, so if many swing voters saw it that way and didn't find hard border scenarios credible it may be more difficult to convince that portion of the electorate to take the plunge next time around using pragmatic arguments that now have to revolve around a seperate currency and a customs union type land border at the Solway and Tweed as the final destination rather than all of the British Isles being in the EU.

There is a school of thought out there at the moment that the reason Boris & Co are kicking up a fuss about the NIP right now is that it is actually working too well for NI from their standpoint in a way that will help to highlight what a huge mistake Brexit was for the rest of the UK. Meanwhile the DUP are doing what they need to do to try to claw back support from TUV among the 30% or so of visceral level Unionists in NI electoral terms who were never going to be comfortable with customs checks at Larne, but the flip side to all this is that being fully open to goods from the EU but also to services & government subsidy from the UK isn't necessarily the scenario that makes a rapid move to UI look good in pragmatic terms to SDLP and SF voters in NI unlike what could have happened with a no deal Brexit.

 

I was only listening with half an ear this morning to a discussion on this on the James O'Brien radio show, but picked this up.

James was talking to an NI correspondent and asked if the NI Executive were broadly in agreement that some re-negotiation of NIP was desirable.

The NI correspondent was incredulous at that thought.

 

"BROADLY IN AGREEMENT"...?

THE NORTHERN IRELAND EXECUTIVE CAN'T EVEN AGREE ON WHAT COLOURS TO PAINT THEIR OFFICES!!!"

 

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by ICTJohnboy

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 
I was only listening with half an ear this morning to a discussion on this on the James O'Brien radio show, but picked this up.
James was talking to an NI correspondent and asked if the NI Executive were broadly in agreement that some re-negotiation of NIP was desirable.
The NI correspondent was incredulous at that thought.
 
"BROADLY IN AGREEMENT"...?
THE NORTHERN IRELAND EXECUTIVE CAN'T EVEN AGREE ON WHAT COLOURS TO PAINT THEIR OFFICES!!!"
 
 
 
 

So long as they have pineapples and cheese on sticks.

[LongTimeLurker]

Unionism will have some difficulties coming to terms with what the DUP blundered their way into but once that's out of the way a Northern Ireland that is working well because it has a foot in both camps is not likely to be good news for those ever so reasonable and progressive former balaclava wearers on the other side of the divide because it means UI won't be happening for a while, if ever. They needed the aftermath of Brexit to be a disaster for NI for UI to be just around the corner because they peddle a brand of politics that feeds off bitterness and grievance rather than moderation and economic prosperity.

[LongTimeLurker]

Are you sure it's me that's seriously rattled after a post like that? An NI that works well makes the Roman Catholic middle class and especially Alliance voters a lot less likely to vote for UI or perhaps more importantly in terms of pushing for a border poll to see a need for it any time soon. Don't hold your breath on Scotland voting Yes in the next decade, if it involves needing to convince people during televised debates that a separate currency and customs checks on the M74 at Gretna are a good move. That's if Westminster even approves a legally binding referendum in the first place given Alex Salmond's unwise high profile statements about it being a once in a generation thing.

[Jeff Venom]

Unionism will have some difficulties coming to terms with what the DUP blundered their way into but once that's out of the way a Northern Ireland that is working well because it has a foot in both camps is not likely to be good news for those ever so reasonable and progressive former balaclava wearers on the other side of the divide because it means UI won't be happening for a while, if ever. They needed the aftermath of Brexit to be a disaster for NI for UI to be just around the corner because they peddle a brand of politics that feeds off bitterness and grievance rather than moderation and economic prosperity.

Have you ever even set foot in Ireland?

[LongTimeLurker]

Yes, which is nothing particularly startling given the way Ulster is clearly visible from Scotland.

[LongTimeLurker]

The idea that it's only the DUPes that have problems ahead on the island of Ireland doesn't bear close examination. It's not a particularly good time right now to have an economic model for your national econony revolving around an unusually low level of corporation tax.

 

[Jacksgranda]

I blame the NI Protocol

[LongTimeLurker]

Lots of generic cheddar produced on mainland Europe still able to reach supermarket shelves in your part of the world and very few pineapples were ever being grown on the British mainland unless global warming has accelerated hugely of late so for once I have to disagree with you. NIP unlikely to be negatively impacting William Ulsterman at this point when avoiding having to consume a canape is the name of the game. Guess it doesn't matter how often I post pro-Remain stuff and describe what the DUP did on that particular issue when they held the balance of power at Westminster as moronic the usual suspects on here are still going to think I support them. More to be pitied than scorned.

[Jeff Venom]

Lots of generic cheddar produced on mainland Europe still able to reach supermarket shelves in your part of the world and very few pineapples were ever being grown on the British mainland unless global warming has accelerated hugely of late so for once I have to disagree with you. NIP unlikely to be negatively impacting William Ulsterman at this point when avoiding having to consume a canape is the name of the game. Guess it doesn't matter how often I post pro-Remain stuff and describe what the DUP did on that particular issue when they held the balance of power at Westminster as moronic the usual suspects on here are still going to think I support them. More to be pitied than scorned.

Personally I think you get the responses you deserve when you reduce your chat to balaclavas, bitterness, and grievance in the south.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think it should have been abundantly clear that those comments were mainly about SF in NI but whatever.   

[LongTimeLurker]

Seem to remember I pointed the usual suspects in the direction of Emma Little-Pengelly's family history and the past escapades of the DUP's candidate for West Belfast if they wanted to find paramilitary links where the DUP was concerned rather than the drivel that was being posted but whatever. 

[sophia]

I see Betty the stick has stood up her hitherto besties.

It seems that time is taking away what was certain.

[vikingTON]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59266116

Flegs = very serious (and costly) business. 

[Miguel Sanchez]

8 minutes ago, virginton said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59266116

Flegs = very serious (and costly) business. 

"The commission has been accused of not providing value for money"