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Airdrie vs. Alloa/ Alloa vs. Airdrie - Championship Play Off Semi-Final


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22 hours ago, Chapelhall chap said:

I give the benefit of the doubt that he meant Kyle Hutton, ex rangers like the other Kyle. Thought we deserved all the praise in these posts but Alloa looked a bit defensive and pedestrian until around 15 minutes to go when our energy levels took a dip and Finnie had booked Hutton; indeed as usual he was nit picking over some fouls but let them away with a few. The guy who upended Macdonald  might well have got a red in the early part of season( Although I thought a yellow was just about right)

Cheers - exactly what I meant. Bit of a brain fart.

 

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I don't think I've been at Recreation Park (or whatever it's called now) since the day we won the second division title.  Enjoyed the convoy through that day - would be great to get anything approaching that kind of atmosphere on Saturday. 

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I know it has been discussed again and again - but I felt it was a poor call last night. Frank is a good defender and he was steady again last night but we really miss Jason's ability to start moves from the back. Last night we were passing it around at the back slowly, allowing Airdrie to get back into position, followed too often by an aimless punt. Marr should be in the team on Saturday. 



Spot on!
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I also didn't see the logic. Jason has come back into the team past month or so, and has performed really well. McKeown only played in an absolute dead rubber against Peterhead after being injured for 3 weeks or so.

Also thought on the basis of Hetheringtons performance from the bench against Airdrie at Alloa some time ago that the manager would slot him in alongside Holmes. We mopped up everything that day. Suppose hindsight is a great thing.

As Waspie says, Airdrie much better, deserved their win but not as if they peppered our goal with chance after chance. This is still right in the mix.

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42 minutes ago, Father Barrys Sign (Top Half) said:

As Waspie says, Airdrie much better, deserved their win but not as if they peppered our goal with chance after chance. This is still right in the mix.

This is my view also. We had reasonably good final ball time after time but we didn't cause Alloa too many problems in and around the six yard box. Alloa, for the most part, dealt with the crosses or we didn't have enough bodies to capitalize. Most of our better efforts were from longer range.

That's probably as negative as Alloa have been, when I've seen them this season, and may well be a very different animal when they have to come out and chase the game.

 

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Didn't understand the centre back swapping either. However, didn't have much bearing on the game. Frank came in and did ok. Think that all but shows how much of a future Jason has under Goodwin unfortunately. Mistake was in the midfield like you said - Hetherington or Robertson had to start.

 

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I know it has been discussed again and again - but I felt it was a poor call last night. Frank is a good defender and he was steady again last night but we really miss Jason's ability to start moves from the back. Last night we were passing it around at the back slowly, allowing Airdrie to get back into position, followed too often by an aimless punt. Marr should be in the team on Saturday. 

I'm also happy enough with 1-0 in the circumstances. We were shite and Airdrie were apparently as good as they've been all season - yet for all that it's only 1-0 and they didn't create many clear cut opportunities. We're capable of so much more and hopefully we'll have a right go at them at the weekend. 

Frank was poor on wednesday night as many others were, i felt we missed jason also but frank is obviously goodwins first choice.

 

Hopefully he will swap it.

 

Must also agree with robertson or hetherington to start.

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1 hour ago, KierenAAFC said:

Didn't understand the centre back swapping either. However, didn't have much bearing on the game. Frank came in and did ok. Think that all but shows how much of a future Jason has under Goodwin unfortunately. Mistake was in the midfield like you said - Hetherington or Robertson had to start.

 

I think it had bearing because Jason plays from the back and his distribution is better. Not a massive bearing and you're right, it may not have made any difference. 

Again, not a knock on McKeown overall, who is a decent defender. Just think this aspect was missing. 

Andy Graham makes good runs from time to time but it's more about drive and momentum with him. Jason always plays it out sensibly and this may have given us a bit more territory in the middle. It made no sense to switch the centre half's again anyway, but it was even more apparent on the night.

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2 hours ago, Father Barrys Sign (Top Half) said:

I think it had bearing because Jason plays from the back and his distribution is better. Not a massive bearing and you're right, it may not have made any difference. 

Again, not a knock on McKeown overall, who is a decent defender. Just think this aspect was missing. 

Andy Graham makes good runs from time to time but it's more about drive and momentum with him. Jason always plays it out sensibly and this may have given us a bit more territory in the middle. It made no sense to switch the centre half's again anyway, but it was even more apparent on the night.

Totally agree with your comments.

We certainly missed Jason distribution from the back on Wednesday night . Frank was caught  few times with the Airdrie players quickly harrying, harassing and closing our midfield and defence down.  I cant see JG change it on Saturday.

On the stand side linesman debate the linesman gave a corner only for the ref to correctly over rule him in first ten minutes. From then on in he seemed to look for indication from the ref for any decision. the build up to the  goal the through ball to Connor from  where I was sitting in line with penalty spot it did appear he had a slight step on our defence so should have been flagged offside but linesman was two pace behind play. You get them sometimes.

 

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If anyone is looking for a little extra beer money this weekend Andy Ryan is 21/10 to score anytime with McBookie, easy money.
 
To put that in perspective Dylan Mackin is 11/10 to score anytime......


That's an absolutely great find.

I'm on it.
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32 minutes ago, LIVIFOREVER said:

Wonder what odds they're giving on Andy Ryan getting sent off or injured in the first couple of minutes of the game then.

When working with betting you need to look at previous patterns to work out value.   You look for the percentage chance of your gamble winning and relate it to the odds on offer.   Ie.  a 50/50 chance of something happening would be even money.  If you think Alloa have a 60% chance of winning this match,  evens is not value for you.

He's scored in 3 of 5 games this season against Alloa

He has 1 yellow card against Alloa in 5 games this season,  he's not been sent off in 40 games so far.

He has went off injured 1 time in 40 games this season

The risk of injury would be around 5% so you're looking at around 19/1 at the bookies as being a fair price.  Anything bigger is value for me.

Getting sent off,  chances again are slim given his record so far, so again,  I'd say 5% or less,  so again,  anything over 20/1 at the bookies on that happening are value.

Given he's scored in 60% of our games v. Alloa this season I'd suggest that there is a fair chance he'd do it again.   Odds of 6/4 would be fair anything bigger would be value.  Therefore the 21/10 looks to be extremely good value IMO.    

So far Mackin hasn't scored in 3 games this season for Alloa v. Airdrie, though he has scored 3 goals in 13 games for the wasps.   He did get 1 goal for Mwell 20s though,  so I'd be happy to admit he has a 25% of scoring tomorrow.    That would be a 3/1 bet to score anytime if I was writing up the book, so 11/10 on offer is a terrible bet IMO.    

Table of odds should show below:

 

ODDS ON

ODDS

ODDS AGAINST

50%

EVENS

50%

52.4%

11/10

47.6%

54.5%

6/5

45.5%

55.6%

5/4

44.4%

57.9%

11/8

42.1%

60%

6/4

40%

61.9%

13/8

38.1%

63.6%

7/4

36.4%

65.2%

15/8

34.8%

66.7%

2/1

33.3%

69.2%

9/4

30.8%

71.4%

5/2

28.6%

73.3%

11/4

26.7%

75%

3/1

25%

76.9%

100/30

23.1%

77.8%

7/2

22.2%

80%

4/1

20%

81.8%

9/2

18.2%

83.3%

5/1

16.7%

84.6%

11/2

15.4%

85.7%

6/1

14.3%

86.7%

13/2

13.3%

87.5%

7/1

12.5%

88.2%

15/2

11.8%

88.9%

8/1

11.1%

 

17/2

10.5%

 

9/1

10%

 

10/1

9.1%

 

11/1

8.3%

 

12/1

7.7%

 

13/1

7.1%

 

14/1

6.7%

 

15/1

6.3%

 

16/1

5.9%

 

17/1

5.6%

 

18/1

5.3%

 

19/1

5%

 

20/1

4.8%

 

22/1

4.4%

 

25/1

3.8%

 

33/1

2.9%

 

40/1

2.4%

 

50/1

2%

 

66/1

1.5%

 

 

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Ooft that is some in depth analysis DBM, I don't gamble so was just wondering why the bookies would be giving such good odds when Ryan has scored 6 goals in his last 3 games, and from what you've just posted his record is pretty good against Alloa too. Thought they must have factored in him being sent off or injured but that doesn't look likely either. Seems really generous odds then.

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