Oor Nicola Sturgeon thread.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, renton said:

Why? 

What budget are we using for this facility? Are they volunteers? Are we asking Westminster for the funding?

[renton]

Just now, Baxter Parp said:

What budget are we using for this facility? Are they volunteers? Are we asking Westminster for the funding?

The think tank reckons it'd cost somewhere from 1-1.5 billion to run for a year. There are borrowing facilities available to the Scottish Government, budgets that could be allocated from other places. Maybe not all at once and maybe not to that full extent but some version of this scheme is well within the remit of the Scottish Government to put in place. 

Perpetuating lockdown costs us 10x that in revenue. This is a classic example of spending money to make money.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, renton said:

The think tank reckons it'd cost somewhere from 1-1.5 billion to run for a year. There are borrowing facilities available to the Scottish Government, budgets that could be allocated from other places. Maybe not all at once and maybe not to that full extent but some version of this scheme is well within the remit of the Scottish Government to put in place. 

Perpetuating lockdown costs us 10x that in revenue. This is a classic example of spending money to make money.

There are borrowing facilities for infrastructure projects not for day to day governance. There is no way Westminster would approve this.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

There are borrowing facilities for infrastructure projects not for day to day governance. There is no way Westminster would approve 

Parts of it could be classified as such, there are things we are currently planning on doing that could be shelved until after 2021.

There is no reason not to try.

[Baxter Parp]

35 minutes ago, renton said:

Parts of it could be classified as such, there are things we are currently planning on doing that could be shelved until after 2021.

There is no reason not to try.

Fighting a virus is not an infrastructure project and cannot be rationally classified as such.  Trying would be portrayed as mischievous and damaging grievance.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Baxter Parp

[renton]

28 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Fighting a virus is not an infrastructure project and cannot be rationally classified as such.  Trying would be portrayed as mischievous and damag

Ok, so cancel as much elective spending as possible in the short term, raise taxes next year. There are ways of generating money, even if it isn't the full sum in the paper.

However, let's not you and I pretend that money is the reason this wont ever  be considered.

It wont be because, so long as we keep to the UK wide approach, the SNP can't be attacked for it by the opposition. Even if there are less damaging alternatives available.

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

"Key parts of this strategy would involve recruiting over 5,400 Public Health Community Officers"

I seem to have found a flaw in this plan almost immediately.

What qualifications are required for this job? Do these people need to be trained up? (I didn't click the link, that might be explained.)

[NotThePars]

3 hours ago, renton said:

The Common Weal think tank has a new policy paper out for emulating some of the German approaches to get us out of lockdown early. It would involve abandoning the current 4 nation approach to health policy.

I know no one in the SNP reads anything Robin McAlpine writes (which, in my opinion, is their loss) but it does feel like their are alternatives that could be explored but arent in favour of maintaining a sense of collective responsibility with the rest of the UK, and with it a sense of collective protection to political fall out.

That's cause the six people in the party that make up SNP Socialists all subscribe to David Jamieson thought.

[renton]

4 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

That's cause the six people in the party that make up SNP Socialists all subscribe to David Jamieson thought.

Your going to have to enlighten me there, I'm afraid.

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, renton said:

Your going to have to enlighten me there, I'm afraid.

 

6 hours ago, renton said:

 

I know no one in the SNP reads anything Robin McAlpine writes (which, in my opinion, is their loss) 

Just a wee joke in reference to this.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

Just a wee joke in reference to this.

Does a joke that has to be explained qualify as a joke ?

[NotThePars]

1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

Just a wee joke in reference to this.

Does a joke that has to be explained qualify as a joke ?

If that's the case then Stewart Lee is finished.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

If that's the case then Stewart Lee is finished.

I'd forgotten all about him.

[Baxter Parp]

12 hours ago, renton said:

Ok, so cancel as much elective spending as possible in the short term, raise taxes next year. There are ways of generating money, even if it isn't the full sum in the paper.

How much will this raise?

[Mr Heliums]

On 11/04/2020 at 11:26, Baxter Parp said:

Fighting a virus is not an infrastructure project and cannot be rationally classified as such.  Trying would be portrayed as mischievous and damaging grievance.

I wonder if instead of recruiting these workers, you could redeploy them from other NHS areas as COVID infections decline? I expect there will be a lot of spare capacity if the lockdown continues.

[renton]

On 12/04/2020 at 00:39, Baxter Parp said:

How much will this raise?

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2020-21/pages/2/

There is this year's budget. There are easily things that could be delayed.

The 200 million seed for the SNIB, the 117 million mental health initiative, raid the New Grean Deal for the 250 million for Peatland restoration, the 120 million for the Heat Transition Fund and the 83 million for the electric vehicle initiative. 

767 million. All without touching the education initiatives that will be next years battleground, and without thinking about redirecting funds from other parts of the NHS.

... and if you want to get all those delayed initiatives back on the board quickly, then you look at finally introducing a progressive LVT to replace the council tax which Andy Wightman thinks could raise an extra billion over the current council tax. Or at least a significant updating of the existing band structure.

None of that may be feasible, I just glanced at the budget. I will say that we need to do more than throw up our hands in resignation every time someone suggest Sturgeon should be doing something differently.

Right now, everyone is gearing up to attack the Tories over the Covid Death toll, the UK government is going to look pretty fucking bad pretty soon, and they in turn will turn their fire on the scientific  advice that was given them. For economic reasons it is sufficient to be bolder and try and find the means to go and do mass testing and contact tracing now. For political reasons it may also make a lot of sense very soon to be seen to be more proactive as the UK response becomes more and more criticised.

 

 

[Estragon]

On ‎11‎/‎04‎/‎2020 at 17:13, NotThePars said:

If that's the case then Stewart Lee is finished.

What do you mean?

[Baxter Parp]

On 13/04/2020 at 12:31, renton said:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2020-21/pages/2/

There is this year's budget. There are easily things that could be delayed.

The 200 million seed for the SNIB, the 117 million mental health initiative, raid the New Grean Deal for the 250 million for Peatland restoration, the 120 million for the Heat Transition Fund and the 83 million for the electric vehicle initiative. 

767 million. All without touching the education initiatives that will be next years battleground, and without thinking about redirecting funds from other parts of the NHS.

... and if you want to get all those delayed initiatives back on the board quickly, then you look at finally introducing a progressive LVT to replace the council tax which Andy Wightman thinks could raise an extra billion over the current council tax. Or at least a significant updating of the existing band structure.

None of that may be feasible, I just glanced at the budget. I will say that we need to do more than throw up our hands in resignation every time someone suggest Sturgeon should be doing something differently.

Right now, everyone is gearing up to attack the Tories over the Covid Death toll, the UK government is going to look pretty fucking bad pretty soon, and they in turn will turn their fire on the scientific  advice that was given them. For economic reasons it is sufficient to be bolder and try and find the means to go and do mass testing and contact tracing now. For political reasons it may also make a lot of sense very soon to be seen to be more proactive as the UK response becomes more and more criticised.

 

 

You've gone through the budget looking for big ticket items without considering contractual obligations, money already committed and the mental health of Scottish citizens.  None of this is in the Common Weal paper (in fact, there's no mention of where the money will come from at all) and ,crucially, it doesn't even add up to £1.0-£1.5Bn.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

You've gone through the budget looking for big ticket items without considering contractual obligations, money already committed and the mental health of Scottish citizens.  None of this is in the Common Weal paper (in fact, there's no mention of where the money will come from at all) and ,crucially, it doesn't even add up to £1.0-£1.5Bn.

Of course I haven't. No argument on here is going to be able to go into that detail. You, on the other hand, dont know that the money couldn't be diverted. That it doesn't add up to a billion on a 5 minute trawl through the precision of the budget is hardly surprising (and 76% is not bad, the SPFL wishes they had that number) The money could be found, were there a priority for it to be so found.

So, yeah, an appeal to authority here doesn't cut it. Germany and South Korea are pioneering a strategy that gets them out of lockdown far sooner, and on a day where the OBR are talking about a 13% drop in GDP (for a given scenario) then it's not going to be a good looking quibbling over a billion pounds if a full 3 month lockdown is going to cost us more than 10x that.

There is no evidence, none, that ScotGov have even considered an approach separate from that of the UK, politically, that provides cover. So Sturgeon can trade on her undoubted state craft, natural calm and her appeal to the ordinary that is unrivalled by any other politician on the island, but cleaving to an approach increasingly lambasted everywhere I'm not sure it's a safe place to stand.

[Baxter Parp]

7 hours ago, renton said:

Of course I haven't. No argument on here is going to be able to go into that detail. You, on the other hand, dont know that the money couldn't be diverted.

You don't know that it can, it's pie in the sky wishful thinking from start to finish.