Oor Nicola Sturgeon thread.

[The Ghost of B A R P]

16 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I don't agree that it was the result of some plucky Icelandic guy. He might've been useful in providing the necessary casus belli for some specific groups to give a justification that they wanted to give but that doesn't in and of itself mean the barriers to the Soviet Union's dissolution fell away because someone By Your Logic'd the way there. if the other big hitters in the international system don't feel they have to and don't want to recognise a state then they won't. The UK, in spite of everything, still possesses some clout and can make things very awkward if independence isn't seen as legitimate. It's not a case of saying "we have the right" and do it and it's not a unionist plot to thwart indy to say that even if it does clearly benefit the ongoing status quo of the UK. 

"Yeah, nothing ever applies to the UK... that’s their game and they’re very good at it."

It's not so much that (even if it is a bit) but more that the USSR and Serbia were seen as somewhat outside of the international system or illegitimate in some regard in a way that the UK, despite the collective shitting itself over Brexit, resolutely is not. 

Maybe I'm underestimating the lasting effects of Brexit but as it stands I think if the UK doesn't recognise the legitimacy of Scottish independence (or isn't put in a position where failing to do so is untenable legally, politically, or internationally) then it doesn't happen.

This is what I really don't get. How does she have to fight to preserve her own position? She's comfortably the most popular politician in the UK, is pretty beloved on her own terms, has been largely viewed as handling Covid-19 very well, and is still relatively fresh off a thumping election victory and can point to consistently strong polling on independence and electorally. Outside of an internal dispute which some are trying to amplify but broadly seems to be failing to ignite the popular imagination where is the threat to her position coming from? It would have to be a coup which doesn't seem to have much broad support even within the party. Is the NEC elections enough to engineer a shift in leadership that doesn't carry much of the party with it? 

I think it's quite revealing that you're happy to say you 'don't agree' that Iceland's recognition of Lithuania was decisive... that's what happened and it's not disputed by anyone but the Russians. Gorbachev actually declared their first UDI illegal and sent in the troops. They declared again and Iceland acted alone to support them; Denmark, Slovenia, and Latvia followed and the rest of the international community eventually caught up (it took the US months to do so). I gave that example to show that this is how it works in practice. It's a very Scottish thing, if you don't mind me saying so, to imagine that someone's going to come along and prove they have the right to stop you. They don't.

Other than British exceptionalism ('we reserve the right to do whatever we like'), you need to explain why Kosovo is recognised by Britain and every other European country (not Belarus!)... but Scotland somehow wouldn't be, because Britain says 'No'. The notion that the UK would be able to exert any significant influence over the European partners it has just walked away from is also just not credible. Europe will just say 'OK, Scotland, what do you want to do next?' (i.e. accession process or EFTA etc.).

Think through the implications of the bit in bold. You appear to be saying that the UK has a veto on Scottish independence. That is just not the case, either in the context of Scottish constitutional history or international law. It would of course be better for a Czech-Slovak style divorce to take place... but that is entirely up to the UK. If they won't go for that, and the Scottish independence movement can't manage to shift public understanding of this, then independence will never happen. 2014 will go down as the final historic capitulation, not the preliminary to the inevitable many supporters of independence want to believe it was.

On the second part, I'll just say that politicians are popular until they're no longer popular. 'Internal disputes' (it really isn't) become public controversies. There will come a tipping point, both in the public mind and in the ranks of the SNP, when her position becomes untenable. (If she's somehow able to escape the consequence of her actions, it'll mean that Scotland is just as corrupt as Westminster... maybe more so. )

Edited January 31, 2021 by The Ghost of B A R P

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That's just not true though. The clear inflection point throughout Sturgeon's period of office has been the outcome of the 2019 GE, the subsequent Brexit confirmation followed by the pandemic in quick succession. If it were as simple - and quite frankly patronising to the point of sexism - that Sturgeon turned the female vote then how do you explain the 2017/18 figures? 
Sturgeon is a capable politician and there's nothing wrong with exploiting a catalogue of failings from Westminster to seize the initiative. It does however place this idea that Sturgeon is somehow a unique horse whisperer for indywomen in the bin where it belongs.

It was late last night when you posted that graph - could not see it on my device.

Have gone back and had another look.

What it shows is the shift from No to Yes which started around February/March last year.

So I did a little more digging on the gender gap. That disappearing is only a recent phenomenon as well.

https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2020/10/brexit-coronavirus-and-the-economy-three-key-issues-in-the-independence-debate/

Obviously Brexit and the UK government will be having an effect but ask yourself this.

If it were wholly down to that then why aren't Labour ahead of the Tories at a UK level? It clearly is down to leadership - in all polls Sturgeon is miles ahead of not only her Scottish counterparts but other UK politicians as well.

The daily briefings will have had an effect - the Tories and Labour wouldn't be moaning about them being party political broadcasts if they were not having an effect.

As for the "sexist" comment that's nonsense - I am not saying women have shifted because Sturgeon is a woman - I am saying they have shifted because of her leadership style that has been more visible because of the daily briefings, being seen as a safe pair of hands - it's also a direct contrast with the bumbling buffoons that are Johnson and Starmer.

[The Ghost of B A R P]

12 hours ago, HTG said:

This pish feels like it's been running for the last 100 pages. Bottom line - if Sturgeon doesn't lead the SNP into the next election and through an indy referendum, it'll be lost because she has been the catalyst for turning the polls round. If Salmond, Cherry or any of the rest of them decide that now is a good time to try and nail her and in so doing cost Scotland the chance of breaking from this union they'll have some fucking legacy. Primarily that legacy will be that they fucked it for millions of us. 

That's just straight denial. The idea that people are out to nail her and have decided that this is the time to do it is just a fantasy. She herself has caused this; it's her legacy you should be talking about.

9 hours ago, virginton said:

I agree, apart from the premise that this is a one-way process against Sturgeon from an opposing faction: Sturgeon and her allies have been bruising their way into this fight as well. 

The onus is on an adult in the room to knock all of their heads together and remind them that this is about the future of the citizens of Scotland and not their own personal political ambition.

There have been a number of points in the whole sorry affair when that might have been possible, but we're way past that now. Salmond offered them a way out at all stages in the process, but the determination to nail him (and the dynamics of one lie requiring another lie to cover it up) meant that none were taken.

This is very much about the future of the citizens of Scotland; it has very little to do with personal political ambition.

[Baxter Parp]

Funny how when that article was written the polls indicated no movement at all.  Its almost as if its bollocks. Inevitably a female leader who isn't as divisive as Salmond would see a slight bump in the female demographic, but in the country as a whole support for the SNP and independence did not shift at all.

It hasn't occurred to you that Sturgeon maintained support at a time when it would have dropped otherwise?

[The Ghost of B A R P]

The issue of Sturgeon and the female vote is pretty complex, as far as I can see. It's clear that she has cut through on some level to women among the general voting public (ironically, that was one of the explicit reasons for her succession; even Salmond understood that a younger, female leader would appeal to parts of the electorate he couldn't). On the other hand, there is no doubt that women are leaving the SNP in fairly significant numbers... much more significant than the couple of dozen loudly trumpeted last week over the NEC/Hate Crime issue.

There are all sorts of reasons why political parties split, but you can't just wish away the fact that, ultimately, party unity is the responsibility of the leader. The SNP has been pretty good, historically, at allowing people to howl at each other while remaining a unified and disciplined political force. That's clearly now not the case and Sturgeon has to accept responsibility for that.

And you can't argue that's just 'internal' and doesn't matter in comparison to strong polling: parties who go into elections split rarely do well.

Edited January 31, 2021 by The Ghost of B A R P

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

11 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

1 hour ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

Funny how when that article was written the polls indicated no movement at all.  Its almost as if its bollocks. Inevitably a female leader who isn't as divisive as Salmond would see a slight bump in the female demographic, but in the country as a whole support for the SNP and independence did not shift at all.

It hasn't occurred to you that Sturgeon maintained support at a time when it would have dropped otherwise?

Oh I see, you're inventing imaginary scenarios to back up your point now.  

[Baxter Parp]

Oh I see, you're inventing imaginary scenarios to back up your point now.  

"the gender gap, which in 2014 resulted in women being markedly less likely to support independence then men, has seemingly disappeared." https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54542712

"Women ‘are the new force’ in drive for independence | Scotland | The Times" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/women-are-the-new-force-in-drive-for-independence-7g2kmr72m

"Scottish independence: How Nicola Sturgeon's less macho approach has seen women flock to Yes camp – Kirsty Strickland | The Scotsman" https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-how-nicola-sturgeons-less-macho-approach-has-seen-women-flock-yes-camp-kirsty-strickland-3006123?amp

[DeeTillEhDeh]

"the gender gap, which in 2014 resulted in women being markedly less likely to support independence then men, has seemingly disappeared." https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54542712

"Women ‘are the new force’ in drive for independence | Scotland | The Times" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/women-are-the-new-force-in-drive-for-independence-7g2kmr72m

"Scottish independence: How Nicola Sturgeon's less macho approach has seen women flock to Yes camp – Kirsty Strickland | The Scotsman" https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-how-nicola-sturgeons-less-macho-approach-has-seen-women-flock-yes-camp-kirsty-strickland-3006123?amp

There have also been studies that show that more women prefer weaker bipartisan politics than confrontational politics. Given that this pandemic has had an "we are all in this together" message it should be no surprise that more women have warmed to a politician who has not gone down the confrontational route. It has been noticeable throughout briefings that Sturgeon has deliberately avoided getting drawn into any criticism of the UK government unless absolutely necessary.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

15 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

"the gender gap, which in 2014 resulted in women being markedly less likely to support independence then men, has seemingly disappeared." https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54542712

"Women ‘are the new force’ in drive for independence | Scotland | The Times" https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/women-are-the-new-force-in-drive-for-independence-7g2kmr72m

"Scottish independence: How Nicola Sturgeon's less macho approach has seen women flock to Yes camp – Kirsty Strickland | The Scotsman" https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/scottish-independence-how-nicola-sturgeons-less-macho-approach-has-seen-women-flock-yes-camp-kirsty-strickland-3006123?amp
 

So that would follow that support among men must have dropped in the same time period.  Meaning Sturgeon overall had no effect whatsoever on polling in five years.  There's no way you can talk round that, its a simple fact.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Obviously Brexit and the UK government will be having an effect but ask yourself this.

If it were wholly down to that then why aren't Labour ahead of the Tories at a UK level? It clearly is down to leadership - in all polls Sturgeon is miles ahead of not only her Scottish counterparts but other UK politicians as well.

The daily briefings will have had an effect - the Tories and Labour wouldn't be moaning about them being party political broadcasts if they were not having an effect.

As for the "sexist" comment that's nonsense - I am not saying women have shifted because Sturgeon is a woman - I am saying they have shifted because of her leadership style that has been more visible because of the daily briefings, being seen as a safe pair of hands - it's also a direct contrast with the bumbling buffoons that are Johnson and Starmer.

Because:

1) The UK electorate (especially England and Wales) actually supports Brexit. Scotland does not which makes it a live political issue here but a dead one for the UK as a whole. 

2) The Labour Party have also clambered aboard Team Brexit to show their gammon ex-voters from 2019 that 'they've changed'. So once again not a live issue in that horse race. 

3) The Labour Party is in opposition and has no political power nor an alternative government response to handling the pandemic. Except for Wales, which a) they've made an even bigger arse of it than Johnson's government and b) nobody cares about anyway. 

The SNP administration has been given a platform by the events to distinguish itself by looking relatively more competent and much more representative of the country's views on Europe. If you were to put a replacement level leader in for Sturgeon then that would not substantially change. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by vikingTON

[Erih Shtrep]

But minor change could be enough to change a fragile 53-47 to 49-51 and removing NS from office should be the last thing anyone that genuinely wants independence (ie not the bath idiot).   The geographic slide might make 65% for Yes achievable in about a decade's time.   Just now about 80% votes are all but cast.   That probably puts both sides on about 40% and the Nicola v Boris accounts for the rest splitting favourably for Yes atm.    

I'd be interested to hear whether anyone else has been surprised by the No to Yes swing over the last 12 months because I didn't see it happening.   

[Baxter Parp]

So that would follow that support among men must have dropped in the same time period.  Meaning Sturgeon overall had no effect whatsoever on polling in five years.  There's no way you can talk round that, its a simple fact.

Please show your workings.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

4 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

 

 

Please show your workings.

 

I'm not gonna indulge your juvenile pish. Its a simple arithmetical fact.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Because:
1) The UK electorate (especially England and Wales) actually supports Brexit. Scotland does not which makes it a live political issue here but a dead one for the UK as a whole. 
2) The Labour Party have also clambered aboard Team Brexit to show their gammon ex-voters from 2019 that 'they've changed'. So once again not a live issue in that horse race. 
3) The Labour Party is in opposition and has no political power nor an alternative government response to handling the pandemic. Except for Wales, which a) they've made an even bigger arse of it than Johnson's government and b) nobody cares about anyway. 
The SNP administration has been given a platform by the events to distinguish itself by looking relatively more competent and much more representative of the country's views on Europe. If you were to put a replacement level leader in for Sturgeon then that would not substantially change. 

I do think it's a bit of both - the contrast with UKGOV but I do believe she has built up more trust in the past year just by being the face of the SNP day in and day out. Before that point she didn't, and the SNP did not have that level of free publicity. Whether another leader would be able to carry on in the same vein I am not so sure - especially when you look at the alternatives. Cherry and Arshad don't have the same level of recognition she has and the interim candidates like Swinney are personality free busted flushes.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

So that would follow that support among men must have dropped in the same time period.  Meaning Sturgeon overall had no effect whatsoever on polling in five years.  There's no way you can talk round that, its a simple fact.

Not necessarily - most of the shift has happened in the past year - support amongst males could be static (or rising at a slower rate) compared to female voters.

There clearly has been a shift in the female vote that now there is no discernible difference with male voters on the issue of independence.

[Baxter Parp]

2 hours ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

I'm not gonna indulge your juvenile pish. Its a simple arithmetical fact.

It fucking isn't if you can't prove it.

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Not necessarily - most of the shift has happened in the past year - support amongst males could be static (or rising at a slower rate) compared to female voters.

There clearly has been a shift in the female vote that now there is no discernible difference with male voters on the issue of independence.

IIRC we lost some of the idiots that would prefer to be out of the EU than in after the referendum but we gained those that would rather be in the Eu than out so support was static.

[Erih Shtrep]

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

This is Nicola Sturgeon's best pal and her actual election agent

Referring to the 'transphobe' MSP's within the SNP. This is really going to help eh, they now want to purge the SNP of 'bigots' (spoiler - they are the actual bigots, not the people they want to purge)

Luckily NS probably won't see April as FM or even as a professional politician, so the Mcarthy-ite ideological purge they have planned won't get very far.

[NotThePars]

44 minutes ago, Erih Shtrep said:

 

I might as well hand my notice in now. We're finished.