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General Election 2017: Scottish Seat Predictions


Stephen Malkmus

General Election - Scottish Seats  

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There's obviously more ways for the SNP to drop their total than raise it

 

The Northern isles should be the SNP's best chance of a gain.

 

Can someone come up with a list of the most "at risk" SNP constituencies.

 

Berwickshire, Roxburghshire and Selkirk is worth watching as it's complicated

 

This is Lib Dem country but as they collapsed last time the SNP won by only 300 from the Tories

 

 

 

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It is utter fantasy to suggest the Tories will get anywhere near 10 seats. 

Of the 5 smallest margins from the 2015 election, 3 of those were Fluffy, Ian Murray and the liar Carmichael.

There's maybe another 3-ish seats the Tories can grab.  I'd be genuinely astonished if they got more than 5.

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2 hours ago, Fide said:

It is utter fantasy to suggest the Tories will get anywhere near 10 seats...

Last time around it was utter fantasy that the SNP could get over 50. If the Tories can get to 30% or so by becoming the main vehicle for No voters that don't want a second referendum they are in with a shout on that and the SNP pushing the referendum so hard will make a lot of people think twice before voting tactically for them in many of the Tories's main rural target seats given they were usually about 62:38 for the No side on the referendum. In 2015 most people thought there was zero chance of another independence referendum before 2020 so many pro-Union voters were more comfortable than they will be this time with using the SNP to give the Tories, Lib Dems or Labour a kicking

10 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

The Northern isles should be the SNP's best chance of a gain.

Think the last Holyrood election shows otherwise and that if it was ever going to happen last time was the time. The problem for the SNP is that a lot of Shetlanders and to a lesser extent Orcadians just don't see themselves as Scottish and find the SNP's brand of nationalism off-putting. SNP politicians have never really understood the place and probably never will. Edinburgh South is the SNP's main chance for a gain as the swing of pro-Union voters from Labour to the Tories has created a three way marginal there.

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14 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Last time around it was utter fantasy that the SNP could get over 50. If the Tories can get to 30% or so by becoming the main vehicle for No voters that don't want a second referendum they are in with a shout on that and the SNP pushing the referendum so hard will make a lot of people think twice before voting tactically for them in many of the Tories's main rural target seats given they were usually about 62:38 for the No side on the referendum. In 2015 most people thought there was zero chance of another independence referendum before 2020 so many pro-Union voters were more comfortable than they will be this time with using the SNP to give the Tories, Lib Dems or Labour a kicking

Think the last Holyrood election shows otherwise and that if it was ever going to happen last time was the time. The problem for the SNP is that a lot of Shetlanders and to a lesser extent Orcadians just don't see themselves as Scottish and find the SNP's brand of nationalism off-putting. SNP politicians have never really understood the place and probably never will. Edinburgh South is the SNP's main chance for a gain as the swing of pro-Union voters from Labour to the Tories has created a three way marginal there.

Fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion as much as I am.

I still think the Tories will get 3 - 4 seats tops.

The SNP almost broke the swingometer in so many constituencies last time.  It is unthinkable to me anyway that enough of them will shy away from the SNP this time to make any kind of meaningful increase in the Tory vote.  It will happen in a couple of seats, sure, but outwith that, I still think we'll see a pleasingly yellow tsunami.

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Think the last Holyrood election shows otherwise and that if it was ever going to happen last time was the time. The problem for the SNP is that a lot of Shetlanders and to a lesser extent Orcadians just don't see themselves as Scottish and find the SNP's brand of nationalism off-putting. SNP politicians have never really understood the place and probably never will. Edinburgh South is the SNP's main chance for a gain as the swing of pro-Union voters from Labour to the Tories has created a three way marginal there.

 You could well be right. The Lib Dems surely hit rock bottom last time and are sure to bounce back a little so if not too much mud has stuck to Alistair Carmichael he'll be alright

 

Edinburgh South is weird. I'd been looking at in terms of whether Ian Murray can get tories to hold their nose and vote labour for the sake of the union while you've been thinking about it in the other direction. Given the polarised leadership of the two parties it's going to be tough in either direction and thinking further they could both lose unionist remainers to the Lib Dems.

 

 

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Drew this up so I could put some bets on. The key trend in 2016 was decreased SNP majorities in Holyrood pretty much across the board - the chances are that they will drop further in this election but not by enough for other parties to gain most seats.

It will be interesting to see what happens in East Lothian (tactical voting could swing the seat to Labour) and Moray (Angus Robertson is in trouble given the small majority in 2016, the subsequent high Brexit vote in that area and the recent Tory poll bounce). The SNP have no chance in Mundell or Carmichael's constituencies but Ian Murray will be shitting it. The Tories getting over 10 seats is cloud-cuckoo land stuff.

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Does the increased vote during a Westminster election help the SNP ? Tories and old people always vote, in both elections. Comparing to Holyrood elections might skew the polls a little in favour of the unionist parties ? I have no idea if this is the case, just a thought. 

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I think a lot of the tactical Tory voters who voted SNP in the last General Election (but voted no to Indy), are now sensing an overall Tory landslide and will return to their original Tory voting intentions.

 

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5 minutes ago, FlyerTon said:

I think a lot of the tactical Tory voters who voted SNP in the last General Election (but voted no to Indy), are now sensing an overall Tory landslide and will return to their original Tory voting intentions.

 

The Tories had their worst performance in Scotland (in vote percentage terms) for quite some time in 2015. Even before that we were looking at a low base that really only saw them drop 2% points. I don't think these voters returning home will make much of a difference. 

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10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Last time around it was utter fantasy that the SNP could get over 50. If the Tories can get to 30% or so by becoming the main vehicle for No voters that don't want a second referendum they are in with a shout on that and the SNP pushing the referendum so hard will make a lot of people think twice before voting tactically for them in many of the Tories's main rural target seats given they were usually about 62:38 for the No side on the referendum. In 2015 most people thought there was zero chance of another independence referendum before 2020 so many pro-Union voters were more comfortable than they will be this time with using the SNP to give the Tories, Lib Dems or Labour a kicking

Think the last Holyrood election shows otherwise and that if it was ever going to happen last time was the time. The problem for the SNP is that a lot of Shetlanders and to a lesser extent Orcadians just don't see themselves as Scottish and find the SNP's brand of nationalism off-putting. SNP politicians have never really understood the place and probably never will. Edinburgh South is the SNP's main chance for a gain as the swing of pro-Union voters from Labour to the Tories has created a three way marginal there.

 

According to the census, 59 - 62% of them identify as Scottish-only. Scots English also being the common parlance for many there. SNP is vote is rising there too. They're about to gain a councillor in Shetland I understand and are a fairly close second in the WM poll.

it's only a small minority of troublemakers like Tavish Scott who stir up the 'We're really Norse' nonsense which is ironic given his surnames and Gaelic forename and the fact that he's from Scottish mainland laird-stock.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Scotland#National_identity

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8 hours ago, mizfit said:

It's started again
bbbfa9e6abacc8d6274bc67ee2ed55ad.jpg
 

The Western Isles and Skye & Lochaber are in the east of Scotland?

Unionists, eh? Probably some Tory intern in Sussex drew this up for nowt.

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I think a lot of the tactical Tory voters who voted SNP in the last General Election (but voted no to Indy), are now sensing an overall Tory landslide and will return to their original Tory voting intentions.

 

Tactical Tory voters who voted SNP last time?

 

I'm quite happy to admit the possibility but is there any reason to think these people existed in significant numbers?

 

Surely we would have seen a drop in the Tory share of the vote when it fact they had a small uptick.

 

Is this a Greenock thing?

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