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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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  • 4 weeks later...

Strangely, I don't remember the MSM press picking up on this recent Ipsos poll...

All tables available here: 

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-11/public-attitudes-across-the-union-ipsos-knowledgepanel-uk-tables.pdf

Fieldwork dates: 13th October - 19th October 2022
Respondent type: KnowledgePanel Members - UK, 16+ 

Scottish voters only

I would prefer Scotland to vote against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country - 43%

Don't mind either way - 4%

I would prefer Scotland to vote for leaving the UK and becoming an independent country 50%

Don't know - 2%

With undecideds and those who aren't bothered stripped out, that works out as 54% in favour of independence and 46% opposed 

 

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1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

When should we expect the answer from the supreme Court regarding the referendum powers?

 

50 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Thursday this week I think.

^^^ incorrect 

The correct answer is Wednesday November 23 at 9.45am and the civic space is for the gracious 

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  • 2 weeks later...

With the current 'situation', it still needs the SNP and the Greens to poll over 50% collectively at the GE though. Current polls, SNP on 41% and Greens on 2%.

Yes 49 v No 45 is obviously only 'in play' in circumstances where there is a straight choice Referendum.

2 years is a long time to wait. I would still expect the Labour vote in Scotland to move up slightly from 31% in a GE they look like winning (assuming that is still the case then).

If it did, the SNP would have to hoover up a lot of disaffected Lib Dems to get up closer to the 50%

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8 hours ago, Jedi said:

With the current 'situation', it still needs the SNP and the Greens to poll over 50% collectively at the GE though. Current polls, SNP on 41% and Greens on 2%.

Yes 49 v No 45 is obviously only 'in play' in circumstances where there is a straight choice Referendum.

2 years is a long time to wait. I would still expect the Labour vote in Scotland to move up slightly from 31% in a GE they look like winning (assuming that is still the case then).

If it did, the SNP would have to hoover up a lot of disaffected Lib Dems to get up closer to the 50%

No,  if it shows anything it is that the idea of using a de facto referendum doesn't have cut through to the general public yet. However (within a theoretical time frame not long from now) there would be potential to get that 50% if you could connect the current pro- Indy vote with the SNP GE as referendum idea.

More than that though, it simply shows what happens when you tell people they can't do something that they always assumed was within their rights.

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Just now, Granny Danger said:

Will this Reform U.K. bunch have the money to stand in all constituencies?  Will they want to?

I’ve honestly no idea. They do tend to have quite a bit of cash from donors so maybe they will. UKIP and the Brexit party both won seats in Scotland in European elections but can’t see them winning a deposit anywhere in a General Election.  The Scottish GE poll had them on 2%.

A Tory MSP, Michelle Ballantyne, defected to them just before the end of the 2016-2021 Parliament.

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