Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Yes, but almost certainly with Starmer rather than the Tories.

Apart from Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale) and Alistair Carmichael (Orkney & Shetland), the Lib Dems have lost every seat that they held from 2010-2015. They regained some of them in 2017/2019 and have won some new ones, but the scars from that coalition are still very raw in Lib Dem circles. Davey himself lost his seat, albeit he won it back in 2017 and massively increased his majority in 2019. 

Alright, but if supping from the poison chalice didn't bother their predecessors, I can't see it being much of a problem for the current batch.

They'll be looking at people like Nick Clegg and thinking, "he did alright out of it - that could be me!"

[Granny Danger]

16 minutes ago, BFTD said:

You're not serious! They'll have their knickers dropped at a moment's notice for a spell making personal contacts at government level. That's the whole point of being in the Lib Dems, surely?

BTW, I'm no longer convinced that Labour would deal with the SNP to form a government. I get the impression there's enough spite and stupidity there that the party leadership would rather allow a minority Tory government to soldier on in the hope that they become more unpopular.

Labour would be fucked if they let the Tories form a government if there was a feasible alternative.

[Donathan]

1 minute ago, BFTD said:

Alright, but if supping from the poison chalice didn't bother their predecessors, I can't see it being much of a problem for the current batch.

They'll be looking at people like Nick Clegg and thinking, "he did alright out of it - that could be me!"

 

I suspect that Labour will emerge as the largest party anyway and this discussion will be moot, but it'll be interesting to see what happens if the make up of the parliament ends up being like 2010/2017 with the Conservatives having 300ish MPs but shy of a majority. I think they might find themselves short of allies given they've alienated the DUP.

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Labour would be fucked if they let the Tories form a government if there was a feasible alternative.

You and I might think that, but do they?

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

I suspect that Labour will emerge as the largest party anyway and this discussion will be moot, but it'll be interesting to see what happens if the make up of the parliament ends up being like 2010/2017 with the Conservatives having 300ish MPs but shy of a majority. I think they might find themselves short of allies given they've alienated the DUP.

Two years still to go. It will take very little for them to get back to a share of the vote that would give them a majority.

They may well be as grasping and immoral as anything in Major's last government, but the prospect of being out in the wilderness again will likely concentrate minds.

[Granny Danger]

47 minutes ago, BFTD said:

You and I might think that, but do they?

 

Yes, they’re not that stupid.

Given the propensity for the natural Tory voter to be a Tory and the insipid leadership from Starmer I think that something around the numbers I quoted earlier is quite possible.

[BFTD]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

Yes, they’re not that stupid.

Given the propensity for the natural Tory voter to be a Tory and the insipid leadership from Starmer I think that something around the numbers I quoted earlier is quite possible.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

Labour would be fucked if they let the Tories form a government if there was a feasible alternative.

They've done that precise thing in several Scottish councils. They'd rather have Tory led councils than share power with the SNP.

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

They've done that precise thing in several Scottish councils. They'd rather have Tory led councils than share power with the SNP.

Aye, that was part of my thinking.

It's pretty undeniable that SLab would rather anyone in power than the SNP, at any cost and, while London Labour won't share quite the same enmity, I can see them viewing an SNP pact as electoral suicide in England.

Plus, unlike Granny, I think they just might be that stupid.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

I know it's upsetting for some on here but there's no chance of a Labour/SNP coalition or deal. Labour will be helped by the Lib Dems, GDds prediction is just a fantasy SNP wish list that ends up with Tory rule.

Also even in the extremely unlikely event of Labour using SNP to prop them up they're not going to condede anything like "having a referendum" which I'd imagine is most posters motivation on here. 

 

[Highlandmagar]

10 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

I know it's upsetting for some on here but there's no chance of a Labour/SNP coalition or deal. Labour will be helped by the Lib Dems, GDds prediction is just a fantasy SNP wish list that ends up with Tory rule.

Also even in the extremely unlikely event of Labour using SNP to prop them up they're not going to condede anything like "having a referendum" which I'd imagine is most posters motivation on here. 

 

The best Labour can hope for is being the largest party.  If they have to go into coalition, they will only f**k it up and lose the next election.  I don't particularly want a coalition with SNP, unless they get a solid commitment to a referendum. Otherwise it will only dilute the independence push, only for a return of a Tory government. 

[BFTD]

57 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar Tier 3 said:

The best Labour can hope for is being the largest party.  If they have to go into coalition, they will only f**k it up and lose the next election.  I don't particularly want a coalition with SNP, unless they get a solid commitment to a referendum. Otherwise it will only dilute the independence push, only for a return of a Tory government. 

A Lab-SNP coalition without a referendum commitment would be one of the stupidest things the SNP could do. Can't see it happening.

It'd be like someone like the Lib Dems tossing out their stated beliefs just to get into...oh.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

They've done that precise thing in several Scottish councils. They'd rather have Tory led councils than share power with the SNP.

That comparison is nonsensical and you know it. 

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

That comparison is nonsensical and you know it. 

This message plays well in England and terrifies Labour.

 

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

This message plays well in England and terrifies Labour.

 

This is my last word on it as I cannot be arsed arguing an obvious point, but what happens pre-election and post-election is completely different.  If Labour had a chance to form a government with SNP support and chose not too they would be rightly crucified.

The alternative would be a Tory government who would not get support for their legislative programme, a few weeks/months of uncertainty and another election which the Tories could barely afford and which Labour certainly couldn’t afford at which time many Labour voters would boycott.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The best scenario is surely a national government of unity featuring representatives from all the parties with Hugh Grant as PM and James O'brien as minister for reversing brexit.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yougov MRP poll: Tories set to lose over 80 seats including Johnson's Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

If Johnson is still PM then you think there would be a sustained effort to remove him.

[BFTD]

Who was the last sitting Prime Minister to lose their seat?

Other than Jo Swinson, obviously.

[Highlandmagar]

48 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Who was the last sitting Prime Minister to lose their seat?

Other than Jo Swinson, obviously.

Arthur Balfour in 1906

[Granny Danger]

3 hours ago, BFTD said:

Who was the last sitting Prime Minister to lose their seat?

Other than Jo Swinson, obviously.

Swinson losing her seat was one of the funniest results I can recall, and let’s face it there’s been a few.

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

Swinson losing her seat was one of the funniest results I can recall, and let’s face it there’s been a few.

I don't think either of us will live to see another night like that of the 1st of May 1997.

Well, maybe you will.