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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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Apparently there's a solid possibility of an upset in the Chesham by-election today, Lib Dems confident of taking it from the Tories.

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Apparently there's a solid possibility of an upset in the Chesham by-election today, Lib Dems confident of taking it from the Tories.
Torys still 1/7 on with bookies

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The big story there is obviously the Tories losing a seat they've literally never had less than 50% of the vote in before. You doubt it would be repeated in a general election but if the Lib Dems can take that safe a Tory seat they can take pretty much anything in their heartlands.

However, while there's obviously been a significant Labour to Lib Dem tactical vote contributing to such a big majority, that is Labour's worst ever result in a by-election and worst result in that seat. Some tactical voting was to be expected and the Lib Dems (or Liberals) have been second place in that seat in every election other than 2017 since it was created, but coming fourth behind the Greens with less than half of their vote is wild.

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57 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

The big story there is obviously the Tories losing a seat they've literally never had less than 50% of the vote in before. You doubt it would be repeated in a general election but if the Lib Dems can take that safe a Tory seat they can take pretty much anything in their heartlands.

However, while there's obviously been a significant Labour to Lib Dem tactical vote contributing to such a big majority, that is Labour's worst ever result in a by-election and worst result in that seat. Some tactical voting was to be expected and the Lib Dems (or Liberals) have been second place in that seat in every election other than 2017 since it was created, but coming fourth behind the Greens with less than half of their vote is wild.

I'm a Labour member, but I see this as a grassroots "fúck you" to the current Government. No co-ordinated campaign, as far as I'm aware, but just many, many people voting however they had to to send the message that they wanted anything other than a Tory to represent them. 

Once we lose B&S and Starmer gets binned, hopefully whoever takes over looks at this result and sees the future - co-operation, perhaps even to the extent of not standing against other left-leaning candidates in some constituencies.  The situation is too grave to continue to follow the fooballisation of recent years - it should be about the policies, not the colour of the rosette. 

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The Lib Dem’s won this by-election with a campaign against HS2 and house building. 

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"Let's get rid of the Tories" doesn't seem to be catching on anywhere else, so is there any particular reason why they got their arses handed to them in this seat?

I'm sure the answer isn't "my, the Lib Dems are looking terribly attractive this time of year".

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3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The Lib Dem’s won this by-election with a campaign against HS2 and house building. 

Oh, so NIMBYism? Gotcha.

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14 minutes ago, BFTD said:

"Let's get rid of the Tories" doesn't seem to be catching on anywhere else, so is there any particular reason why they got their arses handed to them in this seat?

I'm sure the answer isn't "my, the Lib Dems are looking terribly attractive this time of year".

It was a Remain voting constituency, so the flag shagging bollocks won't work there, unlike the other by elections and much of the council votes. Even if you look at the 2019 result in seats London and commuter belt seats like Chesham and Amersham, the Tories didn't add much and sometimes lost vote share in their 'safe' seats. These seats are where Labour and Lib Dems need to be looking to in the future, and just completely ignoring the north.

Edited by sparky88

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4 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

It was a Remain voting constituency, so the flag shagging bollocks won't work there, unlike the other by elections and much of the council votes. Even if you look at the 2019 result in seats London and commuter belt seats like Chesham and Amersham, the Tories didn't add much and sometimes lost vote share in their 'safe' seats. These seats are where Labour and Lib Dems need to be looking to in the future, and just completely ignoring the north.

Christ. What a world it is in which we live.

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36 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Oh, so NIMBYism? Gotcha.

I'd have to look it up but the Lib Dems heavily campaigned against HS2 and the proposed planning reforms by the government.  When Johnson visited the constituency he made comments that indicated a rearguard action on these things - saying that they were going to make some of the constituency a national park and that any development would be done on brownfield sites not greenfield.  It obviously didn't cut through.  I saw some of the LD leaflets posted on social media and they were very NIMBYish.

Quote

It was a Remain voting constituency, so the flag shagging bollocks won't work there, unlike the other by elections and much of the council votes. Even if you look at the 2019 result in seats London and commuter belt seats like Chesham and Amersham, the Tories didn't add much and sometimes lost vote share in their 'safe' seats. These seats are where Labour and Lib Dems need to be looking to in the future, and just completely ignoring the north.

I think that there are factors that are going to push the Tories but not necessarily in favour of Labour.  You have pressure on the Tories from existing wealthy homeowners, opposed to planning reform etc - are they really going to vote Labour?  I don't think Labour can convincingly pivot to that position.  The Lib Dems could certainly piuck up votes there.  Younger voters in these constituencies are more likely to favour planning reform, housebuilding etc but that's probably too small a constituency to make the difference.

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chesham-and-amersham-byelection-lib-dems-hope-hs2-will-derail-tories-3kkdkk6t6

Quote

Sarah Green, 39, the Lib Dem candidate, has vowed to be a “thorn in the side” of HS2, despite her party campaigning in support of the £106 billion project at the last election. 

Quote

 

Fleet is facing the tricky task of distancing himself from his party’s planning reforms, which will make it easier for developers to build houses in areas where there is opposition. Under government targets, 10,000 plots of greenfield land are marked for development in Buckinghamshire, the Campaign to Protect Rural England says.

Boris Johnson sought to head off criticism on a visit to the seat, when he suggested that he could designate the Chilterns a national park. Fleet says that the comments were “very serious”, adding: “Tory MPs do not support building over green spaces and over the green belt. I certainly don’t. There’s been a huge amount of scaremongering going on about a bill which is not published.”

The Lib Dems sense an opportunity, and are appealing to the local sensitivities of traditional Tory voters. Green has put conservation at the centre of her campaign. She describes Buckinghamshire as “stunning”, saying the local woods were covered in “carpets of bluebells” in the spring.

“This is an educated electorate, they know what these planning reforms mean and they are quite outraged by the idea that they won’t have a say in developments that happen in their area,” she says. “I’d like to see more affordable homes but these planning laws don’t guarantee the right sort of housing the community needs.”

The constituency is on the London Underground but the area is renowned for its landscape of ancient woods, cricket pitches and village greens.

Quentin Chases, 75, lives in the medieval centre of Amersham and drives a 1924 Bentley. A Tory voter, he says he appreciates the pace of life, which allows him to get into central London on the Tube while also enjoying countryside walks in the Chilterns. “We’re all nimby here, we’d love the houses to be built elsewhere,” he says.

Elizabeth Okey, 71, is a retired special needs teacher and is a Liberal Democrat voter. “HS2 makes me very upset,” she says. “They have destroyed an ancient wood which has lots of rare species of bat.”

Jill Morgan, 75, has lived in Amersham since 1981. She is a longtime Conservative supporter who is thinking about voting Liberal Democrat for the first time because of concerns about congestion on the roads and trouble parking in town. “HS2 is a big problem,” she says. “Amersham should be kept as it is without it becoming too built up.”

At last month’s local elections, the Conservatives made gains in traditional Labour areas in the north of the country.

But across the “Blue Wall” of southern England, there were signs of a stirring in the Tory shires amid disquiet about planning reforms, with the Liberal Democrats picking up a handful of council seats in Surrey, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

Although Buckinghamshire as a whole voted overwhelmingly for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats took Amersham town council.

Jim Conboy, chairman of the Amersham HS2 Action Group, says the result could be a sign of things to come. “It seems to me that the Liberal Democrat takeover of Amersham town council may indicate a very much reduced Conservative majority,” he says.

 

From pre-election.

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This stunning by election result bought on the back of anti HS2 campaign in the area is a contradiction for the Lib Dems given that they have supported the HS2 project since it was first proposed stating that they would make the HS2 rail link a priority.

So well done to the locals for stating their priority at the ballot box.

 

 

 

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Elizabeth Okey, 71, is a retired special needs teacher and is a Liberal Democrat voter. “HS2 makes me very upset,” she says. “They have destroyed an ancient wood which has lots of rare species of bat.”

You said it lady

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While the Lib Dems said they were in support of HS2 the candidate in this by-election was opposed

Quote

 

The Liberal Democrat candidate Ms Green is also against the rail project, however, is keen to stress that it will be the new planning reforms that MPs will be able to vote on in this parliamentary session.

She added: “For me, HS2 is a big no. If elected I will be a thorn in the side of this Government and HS2 contractors.

“There are genuine fears that tunnelling could damage the chalk streams, which provide drinking water to thousands of local people. I’m calling on these works to be halted, so that concerns about the water supply can be properly addressed.

“Sadly during this Parliament MPs will not have a vote on HS2, however there will be a chance to reject the Government’s new Planning Laws which would see more unwanted destruction to our countryside.

“Just like HS2, this Conservatives Government want to allow developers to build over our greenbelt with local residents powerless to stop them. After the pain from HS2 works, the new Planning Laws would be a devastating blow to our area.”

 

https://www.buckinghamshirelive.com/news/buckinghamshire-news/chesham-amersham-election-hs2-views-5524833

No-one gives a shit what the Lib Dems vote for in their conference.  

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2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The Lib Dem’s won this by-election with a campaign against HS2 and house building. 

Both obvious factors, but a 25% swing speaks to something more fundamental. Had these been the driving forces in voting, it wouldn't have been a Tory seat. 

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The current policies of the Conservatives and focus on "The Red Wall" have pissed off a lot of voters in their Southern heartlands. Planning reforms in particular are anaemia. 

Trouble Labour has is that they are a dead duck in most these seats, have little support historically and probably think that the proposed planning reforms don't go far enough. Even if they weren't, there also aren't enough of these seats for them unless they win back their Brexity Northern seats as well. 

Edited by Michael W

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