Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[renton]

2 hours ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Well congratulations on working that out. 

This section of this forum is a lot more literal than I realised when I first joined. The line was very obvious what I meant and not understanding it is being purposefully obtuse. 

Let's just pretend I said "almost" a decade ago and the point remains.

Celebrating polling being higher than it was when you lost "almost a decade ago" should be the minimal expectation not promoted like some positive that leads to an inevitable victory. I remember when the Indy movement had something a little bit more than pedantry to offer. 

Except the difference between 8 years and 10 years is pretty much the entire length of the referendum campaign, and therefore the period of change in the polls and so if you don't have the same frame of reference then you won't be arguing the same point, no?

Polls have been by and large static since then, having trended a bit higher than the Yes vote share since that time (and presumably more accurate than the pre-referendum polls since they  can and do go by recalled vote now)- there have been a couple of periods when Yes has found itself in the lead: the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, and the first Covid winter.

That is interesting in two respects: 

1. That it is more indicative of voters reacting to perceived crisis in the UK vs. Running towards some ideal of Scotland

2. That its perfectly feasible to tip the balance to Yes.

So aye, I wouldn't at any point consider a referendum a done deal, either in terms of getting one or winning one, but the inability in the last 8 years to persuade Yes voters back to the Union side leaves the whole thing pretty precarious.

Pro Indy folk on here may over emphasise the ability of Yes to win converts based on the last referendum - I suspect that was a case of pulling over low hanging fruit. However, the final push doesn't actually represent a whole lot of extra voters to get, and in fact one mis-timed crisis in a state that seems to have an accelerating cascade of those and the whole show is over.

Which is why the Union strategy now is to prevent Acotland from ever again having a vote on the issue, because they know full well that there is no margin left to bleed.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

1 hour ago, renton said:

Except the difference between 8 years and 10 years is pretty much the entire length of the referendum campaign, and therefore the period of change in the polls and so if you don't have the same frame of reference then you won't be arguing the same point, no?

Polls have been by and large static since then, having trended a bit higher than the Yes vote share since that time (and presumably more accurate than the pre-referendum polls since they  can and do go by recalled vote now)- there have been a couple of periods when Yes has found itself in the lead: the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, and the first Covid winter.

That is interesting in two respects: 

1. That it is more indicative of voters reacting to perceived crisis in the UK vs. Running towards some ideal of Scotland

2. That its perfectly feasible to tip the balance to Yes.

So aye, I wouldn't at any point consider a referendum a done deal, either in terms of getting one or winning one, but the inability in the last 8 years to persuade Yes voters back to the Union side leaves the whole thing pretty precarious.

Pro Indy folk on here may over emphasise the ability of Yes to win converts based on the last referendum - I suspect that was a case of pulling over low hanging fruit. However, the final push doesn't actually represent a whole lot of extra voters to get, and in fact one mis-timed crisis in a state that seems to have an accelerating cascade of those and the whole show is over.

Which is why the Union strategy now is to prevent Acotland from ever again having a vote on the issue, because they know full well that there is no margin left to bleed.

I'd agree with most of that assessment. I've seen quite a lot of posts from the short time I've been on here that talk about Indy as if it's inevitable rather than acknowledging there's nothing inevitable about it at all. These same posters will undoubtedly be saying the same thing 10 years from now. 

In the event that we don't have a referendum in 2023, which I think is the probable outcome, then I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the Indy polling to start to fall a bit. 

[renton]

25 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

I'd agree with most of that assessment. I've seen quite a lot of posts from the short time I've been on here that talk about Indy as if it's inevitable rather than acknowledging there's nothing inevitable about it at all. These same posters will undoubtedly be saying the same thing 10 years from now. 

In the event that we don't have a referendum in 2023, which I think is the probable outcome, then I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the Indy polling to start to fall a bit. 

Why?

[Albus Bulbasaur]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

Why?

Nothing statistically speaking but just my gut feeling on the matter. 

We've already had the Alba splinter happen due to the fact they don't see the SNP as pushing for Indy enough. I know most what I would call sensible Indy supporters would happily bide their time but I think there's probably still a sizeable portion that didn't make the Alba leap that would be frustrated if another Scottish government passes with no referendum even if Sturgeons hands are tied on the matter.

I think the current global circumstances make selling Indy a very hard proposition right now, definitely harder than it was in 2014 and so I wouldn't be surprised in the event of no referendum 2023 for the general support to become lethargic. Could be some Yoon Copium involved there and probably not the analytical conversation you were looking for right enough but that's just my feeling on how things may pan out. 

[Zern]

The gut. That peerless source of authority.

My left testicle disagrees.

The right testicle is totally on board with what you are saying.

But i don't listen to him.

He's a fucking idiot.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Patrick Noubissie said:

I'm personally a little jaded with the SNP's performance as a whole. The Green coalition deal looks like an attempt to kick some life into a pretty boring/unambitious style of governance and some of the ideas there are the kinds of thing I wish they'd have pursued years ago. SNP 1 Green 2 just scraped my vote last time in a process of elimination type way. If, as I worry is the case, they don't really deliver on their coalition deal (not just indy) it will certainly look like a party that has been in charge too long and ran out of steam.

The Green agenda has probably been thrown out of the window with oil and gas going into scarcity and hyper prices, at least in the short term. Maybe they can ban free ports again but I don't really understand why, or put a halt on dualling projects which would annoy a lot of people. The SNP leadership definitely needs a makeover, Sturgeon's looking bored, knackered and irritated by any awkward questions that she used to swish away gently, and sticking Swinney out to take the heat for fuckups doesn't work anymore. Without levers on macroeconomics, most of justice, foreign policy etc there isn't isn't much scope for dramatic or radical change, they're restricted to trying to manage the left overs competently, and there are obviously lots of contradictory views on how that's going. They need momentum towards a referendum to get their mojo back imo, some clear steps, maybe with a plan B.

Edited April 1, 2022 by welshbairn

[Zern]

Don't think Alba is helped much by it being perceived as a vehicle for Salmond's ego and their impact is definitely lessened with the Greens having established themselves as an alternative party for independence. They don't offer much at the moment but there is always the possibility that they could get their shit together, politically. Depends on whether there is any demand for another set of slightly-right-of-centre MSPs in favour of independence. There could be. It's the association with Salmond that i think is hurting them at present. There was poll around the last GE in 2021 that showed his personal favouribility was lower than the boris himself. Speaks volumes about how he is perceived by the public generally.

The referendum is key. But we won't hear more about that until after the elections in May, which i fully expect to be overshadowed by results in Northern Ireland.

Not impossible that we may yet see a Sinn Fein led executive having discussions with the Scottish Government around the issues of border poll legislation.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Green agenda has probably been thrown out of the window with oil and gas going into scarcity and hyper prices, at least in the short term. Maybe they can ban free ports again but I don't really understand why, or put a halt on dualling projects which would annoy a lot of people. The SNP leadership definitely needs a makeover, Sturgeon's looking bored, knackered and irritated by any awkward questions that she used to swish away gently, and sticking Swinney out to take the heat for fuckups doesn't work anymore. Without levers on macroeconomics, most of justice, foreign policy etc there isn't isn't much scope for dramatic or radical change, they're restricted to trying to manage the left overs competently, and there are obviously lots of contradictory views on how that's going. They need momentum towards a referendum to get their mojo back imo, some clear steps, maybe with a plan B.

Murrell needs punted tbqh.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

 

 

 

 

[Lex]

Ooft, that's a paddling.

But, but but, Brexit, Boris, Battlestar Galatica. 

[KingRocketman II]

2 hours ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

 

 

2 hours ago, Lex said:

Ooft, that's a paddling.

But, but but, Brexit, Boris, Battlestar Galatica. 

Who in their right mind would want to break away from this union of equals of ours?

Adored and respected on the world stage - I can see why the posters above are as relieved and happy as I am by common sense prevailing amongst the electorate. A lifetime of the Tories await us all and on today of all days, I couldn't be happier!!

[Albus Bulbasaur]

Just now, KingRocketman II said:

 

Who in their right mind would want to break away from this union of equals of ours?

Adored and respected on the world stage - I can see why the posters above are as relieved and happy as I am by common sense prevailing amongst the electorate. A lifetime of the Tories await us all and on today of all days, I couldn't be happier!!

I've told you before I support Labour and I'm optimistic they will be in power after the next election. 

Framing people that don't want to break up the Union as Tories is a bit boring imo and I think you can do better than that. 

[KingRocketman II]

17 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

I've told you before I support Labour and I'm optimistic they will be in power after the next election. 

Framing people that don't want to break up the Union as Tories is a bit boring imo and I think you can do better than that. 

Am sure you will understand how easy it is to lose track of stated voting intentions with every new alias. 

[Albus Bulbasaur]

3 minutes ago, KingRocketman II said:

Am sure you will understand how easy it is to lose track of stated voting intentions with every new alias. 

Since I've joined this site I've seen multiple posters refer to multiple people as old posters and they all have different opinions. It's quite hard to keep up with and I'd imagine you probably think every new poster is some old poster at this point and you're just confused. 

For clarity i support Labour and the Union and I've never stated anything different on this website. 

 

[SuperSaints1877]

1 minute ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Since I've joined this site I've seen multiple posters refer to multiple people as old posters and they all have different opinions. It's quite hard to keep up with and I'd imagine you probably think every new poster is some old poster at this point and you're just confused. 

For clarity i support Labour and the Union and I've never stated anything different on this website. 

 

A football analogy, would be an old club who were liquidated whose fans were responsible for reprehensible behaviour becoming a new club with those old fans supporting the new club and behaving the same as before.

[Albus Bulbasaur]

2 minutes ago, SuperSaints1877 said:

A football analogy, would be an old club who were liquidated whose fans were responsible for reprehensible behaviour becoming a new club with those old fans supporting the new club and behaving the same as before.

 

On 10/04/2022 at 16:10, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Don't interact with me you creepy fucking loser. 

 

[Antlion]

17 minutes ago, KingRocketman II said:

Am sure you will understand how easy it is to lose track of stated voting intentions with every new alias. 

Aye, the giveaway is the repetition of the same boring lines from the previous alias accounts: “you know, I’ve not been here long”; “just want honest, reasonable discussion”: “in the short time I’ve been here…”

You’d think in the time between bans he could at least work on a new identity that sounded slightly different from the umpteen banned ones. If someone is that worryingly addicted, you’d think they’d at least want to have fun with it by inventing at least one colourful or amusing alias.

[KingRocketman II]

9 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Since I've joined this site I've seen multiple posters refer to multiple people as old posters and they all have different opinions. It's quite hard to keep up with and I'd imagine you probably think every Rangers' supporting unionist new poster is the same Rangers supporting unionist old recently banned poster at this point and you're just confused. 

For clarity i support Labour and the Union and Albus Bulbasaur has never stated anything different on this website. 

 

Confusion resolved. 

[Albus Bulbasaur]

1 minute ago, KingRocketman II said:

I'm a weird c**t.

Noted. 

[KingRocketman II]

5 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Noted. 

Quick to anger and abusive. And I am the weird one