Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[SandyCromarty]

Did some canvassing yesterday and  lot of doorstep positivity for the greens, especially with the younger voter.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them do really well.

[Salt n Vinegar]

Interesting political fact (well, to me anyway)... the last time the Tories won a majority of Scottish constituencies in a general election was on 26 May 1955.  That means that by the end of this month a man born on that date in Scotland will have lived his life until state retirement age without Scottish voters having voted for a Tory Government at Westminster.  

The Tories have been in power or led a Tory dominated coalition in 45 of the years since then. Of Labour's 24 years, 14 of those years resulted from elections won by a certain Tony Blair, whose long-lasting post WMD inspired war unpopularity would make his ilk unelectable to a 'lefty' UK Labour movement in England. 

[Billy Jean King]

Ha ha. But he's Scotlands political heavyweight is he not?

A certain J Baillie might pip him in that race.

[ayrmad]

2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

I mean, no government could justify a major constitutional change on just a 52/48 split... oh, no wait a minute

Unfortunately our shower fought to overturn it, that won't ever be used in the future. 

[HTG]

2 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Is galloways party close to any seats based on polling?

I'm going to rip the shite out of him on twitter when he gets his arse handed to him. 

[Ned Nederlander]

8 minutes ago, HTG said:

I'm going to rip the shite out of him on twitter when he gets his arse handed to him. 

Scotland's most recogniseable loser.

[NotThePars]

13 minutes ago, HTG said:

I'm going to rip the shite out of him on twitter when he gets his arse handed to him. 

Good luck with that. George has the fastest blocking finger in the West.

[HTG]

2 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Good luck with that. George has the fastest blocking finger in the West.

So far so good!

[O'Kelly Isley III]

4 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

6 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Ha ha. But he's Scotlands political heavyweight is he not?

A certain J Baillie might pip him in that race.

Funnily enough she was along our road yesterday with a coterie of young canvassers who were presumably again students parachuted in as you can only contact our local Labour branch via ouija board.

One of them came to the door and asked my wife if we had voted for 'Our Jackie'.  When he received her reply he seemed quite crestfallen.  I'm hoping that their very presence is a sign of Labour concern.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That poll translates into a very good night for the SNP. A majority, Greens increasing and Alba not getting a single seat.
It'd be an absolute disaster for Labour who are irrelevant enough as it is.

Tory figures increase despite corruption - some people really need to take a hard look at themselves.

[Granny Danger]

23 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

17 hours ago, Ludo*1 said:

That poll translates into a very good night for the SNP. A majority, Greens increasing and Alba not getting a single seat.
It'd be an absolute disaster for Labour who are irrelevant enough as it is.

Tory figures increase despite corruption - some people really need to take a hard look at themselves.

If Labour poll less than the Tories on Thursday there will surely be some soul searching amongst their members and supporters.  I don’t think they’ve reached rock bottom in Scotland yet but surely there will be a change of heart amongst a fair few loyalists in the run up to IndyRef2.

[LongTimeLurker]

48 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

17 hours ago, Ludo*1 said:

That poll translates into a very good night for the SNP. A majority, Greens increasing and Alba not getting a single seat.
It'd be an absolute disaster for Labour who are irrelevant enough as it is.

Tory figures increase despite corruption - some people really need to take a hard look at themselves.

...or maybe the electorate separates out the Scottish Conservatives from Boris these days when a Holyrood election is involved? Douglas Ross saying the PM potentially should resign in a high profile interview before a UK-wide audience suggests putting the boot into his own UK party leader is viewed as a sensible strategy right now. Normally the approach would be to duck the question by saying he has complete faith in Boris's integrity and is therefore sure it won't happen. That coupled with the billions of promised extra spending suggests the Tories are in panic mode over an SNP majority.

[Highland Capital]

Am I not right in saying that in the last two elections the polls have actually underpredicted the SNP?  Seem to recollect in the EU election they were predicted to get two seat and then got three and in the 2019 election most polls had them at around the 40 mark as I recall.  The Exit Poll was 55 I'm sure, but that's a different animal.  The EU one was a bit of a strange election granted.

The polling underpredicted the SNP in 2011 as well I'm sure.  In-fact, I even remember Labour being ahead for a fairly long period.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Am I not right in saying that in the last two elections the polls have actually underpredicted the SNP?  Seem to recollect in the EU election they were predicted to get two seat and then got three and in the 2019 election most polls had them at around the 40 mark as I recall.  The Exit Poll was 55 I'm sure, but that's a different animal.  The EU one was a bit of a strange election granted.
The polling underpredicted the SNP in 2011 as well I'm sure.  In-fact, I even remember Labour being ahead for a fairly long period.

They overpredicted in 2017 so compensated for it in their methodology.

[invergowrie arab]

1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

Am I not right in saying that in the last two elections the polls have actually underpredicted the SNP?  Seem to recollect in the EU election they were predicted to get two seat and then got three and in the 2019 election most polls had them at around the 40 mark as I recall.  The Exit Poll was 55 I'm sure, but that's a different animal.  The EU one was a bit of a strange election granted.

The polling underpredicted the SNP in 2011 as well I'm sure.  In-fact, I even remember Labour being ahead for a fairly long period.

I don't think the SNP were underpredicted in 2011 i think there was a huge swing to SNP and by the last polls the numbers were about right

I don't think people were quite on top of what the polling numbers would do to the parliamentary arithmetic though

 

[DC92]

2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

I don't think the SNP were underpredicted in 2011 i think there was a huge swing to SNP and by the last polls the numbers were about right

I don't think people were quite on top of what the polling numbers would do to the parliamentary arithmetic though

They got the upper end of their constituency polling but we're significantly underestimated on the list. They got 44% despite none of the polls putting them above 39%.

[glasgow-sheep]

Wikipedia has all the polling from 2016. SNP/Green vote underperformed on the day compared to all the polls and Tories did better than expected

[Highland Capital]

I'm sure in 2016 in the run-up it was regularly projected that UKIP would win a seat in H&I and in the end didn't get anywhere close.  Recollect the data showing that H&I would've needed 16 seats or something before UKIP would've gotten in.

If there was any regional polling it'll be interesting to see how Wightman is currently polling.  These polls won't take independent candidates into account I imagine so it'll be interesting to see if he gets in and at the same time whether he costs the Greens or the SNP a seat in H&L.  The Greens will probably win one up here, but I wonder if he'll hamper the chances of getting a second or the SNP getting the final seat.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Lex]

The (un?)fortunate reality is that this election will change absolutely nothing. The majority of Scots will vote for pro union parties, like they always have.
Regardless, there will still be a pro Indy majority led by the SNP, like there has been since 2016 - maybe even an SNP majority? Won’t really matter either way.
They will still run the country with ridiculous levels of sleaze and incompetence, like they have since 2016.
They will still blame everything on the big bad Tories and talk about referendums without actually calling one, like they have since 2016.
And then what? Rinse and repeat in 2026.

[John Lambies Doos]

The (un?)fortunate reality is that this election will change absolutely nothing. The majority of Scots will vote for pro union parties, like they always have.
Regardless, there will still be a pro Indy majority led by the SNP, like there has been since 2016 - maybe even an SNP majority? Won’t really matter either way.
They will still run the country with ridiculous levels of sleaze and incompetence, like they have since 2016.
They will still blame everything on the big bad Tories and talk about referendums without actually calling one, like they have since 2016.
And then what? Rinse and repeat in 2026.

Lex the Tory bringing up sleaze. You couldn't make it up