Salt n Vinegar Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Any polls out tomorrow? We've not had any Scottish only ones since the Johnson shit hit the fan. Will be interesting to see if the Tory vote is affected as it was in UK-wide polls. I've had a look at Bet365. Not much there in terms of bet options, but to me the surprising thing was the odds for winning the most seats. Hardly surprisingly, the SNP are 1/100 but remarkably (to me) the Tories are second favourites at 25/1 with Labour a distant third at 66/1. It doesn't look like folk are placing much faith in Sarwar to restore Labour's fortunes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MP_MFC Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Herald has one but only saw the headline of SNP majority and indy a toss up 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 minute ago, MP_MFC said: Herald has one but only saw the headline of SNP majority and indy a toss up I thought another poster on the forum were saying that SNP support was falling away and listing seats that were maybe going to fall? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 That both votes SNP mantra really hitting home! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 That both votes SNP mantra really hitting home! You really are a boring wordsmith 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 That poll translates into a very good night for the SNP. A majority, Greens increasing and Alba not getting a single seat. It'd be an absolute disaster for Labour who are irrelevant enough as it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Mad how such small swings can be the difference between hee-haw and half a dozen seats. What a parliament. How in the actual f**k can the Lib Dems be increasing their vote. Scotland's deckchair enthusiasts and microphiles coming out in force for Willie. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 I really can't see Labour performing as poorly as that. If they do, I think it more or less confirms they're dead in Scotland without significant rebranding/changes. Sarwar has performed relatively well in this campaign and Ross has been a complete disaster, yet Labour are set to lose twice as many seats? That's a real sore one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Kyle said: I really can't see Labour performing as poorly as that. If they do, I think it more or less confirms they're dead in Scotland without significant rebranding/changes. Sarwar has performed relatively well in this campaign and Ross has been a complete disaster, yet Labour are set to lose twice as many seats? That's a real sore one. They managed 22 and 19% in 2016 so the drop actually checks out in terms of overall seat projection, though I'm sceptical of any of those without dedicated regional polls. 18% or so is a cut-off in terms of the national average between two or three list MSPs though, which given Scottish Labour don't actually have constituencies to win/defend (just let that sink in again) means they'd be royally fucked if their list vote actually dropped to 16%. Not enough support to win constituencies and then getting beaten by everyone (including possibly Alba) for the final few list seats. The Scottish politics equivalent of being papped into the seaside leagues. One often forgotten about reality is that Scottish Labour's core vote are simply checking out demographically in their old heartlands, and with almost zero natural replenishment taking place unlike the Tory blue-rinse brigade. Nobody in the Central Belt is hitting 40/50 and suddenly voting for Scottish Labour, their core vote is a pyramid without a base. Edited May 2, 2021 by vikingTON 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said: I've had a look at Bet365. Not much there in terms of bet options, but to me the surprising thing was the odds for winning the most seats. Hardly surprisingly, the SNP are 1/100 but remarkably (to me) the Tories are second favourites at 25/1 with Labour a distant third at 66/1. It doesn't look like folk are placing much faith in Sarwar to restore Labour's fortunes. It's possible for Labour to be favourites to finish ahead of the Tories while the Tories to have a higher chance of getting the most seats overall than Labour. For the Tories to get the most seats they need to do well in places where the SNP has been pulling in 35% to 45%. They don't need to take many votes from the SNP, they more need to unify the opposition to the SNP. But for Labour to win more seats than the SNP they'd need to beat them in places where the SNP have been getting 45% to 60%, and they need to take a very large number of votes straight from them. So there's a very small chance of either Labour or the Tories getting more seats than the SNP, but the Tories are the more likely of the two; but there's a very strong likelihood that one of the two of them will come second, and Labour could be favourites in that fight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Panelbase for Sunday times: https://mobile.twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1388635508469903362 Showing recovery in constituency vote for SNP, Alba dropping. SNP majority of 2. YES also ahead 52/48 Also should be another poll from BMG today 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Panelbase for Sunday times: https://mobile.twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1388635508469903362 Showing recovery in constituency vote for SNP, Alba dropping. SNP majority of 2. YES also ahead 52/48 Also should be another poll from BMG todayApparently John Curtice gets slightly different seat numbers to Ballot Box Scotland. Guess predicting the spread of the Alba vote is finger in the wind stuffSeats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 28 (-3), Labour 18 (-6), Greens 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 6 (+1), Alba 3 (+3) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: I mean, no government could justify a major constitutional change on just a 52/48 split... oh, no wait a minute 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting competition Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting competition Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Alba predicted to win 2 seats with BMG and Indy poll is 50/50. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 Is galloways party close to any seats based on polling? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: Is galloways party close to any seats based on polling? The only seats he'll be taking up are in the stand at Palmerston. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 The only seats he'll be taking up are in the stand at Palmerston.Ha ha. But he's Scotlands political heavyweight is he not? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.