Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[GordonS]

 

3 hours ago, Highland Capital said:

Notice that that poll has the Greens winning Glasgow Kelvin. There’s an outside chance that could happen but seems very unlikely.

Didn’t Panelbase predict the SSP getting a seat a few months ago as well?

I would be really wary of applying polls to individual constituencies. The broad numbers in the projections won't be too far off, but there's so much variability between seats that you really need more local information. Uniform swing isn't so uniform any more.

2 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

No, I suppose you're right.

However, I'm in Mid Scotland and Fife where in 2016 120000 list votes returned no SNP MSP's. There would've needed to be another 3 list seats before they got another MSP through the list. Therefore it's a totally wasted vote however I keep getting told that not voting SNP on the list threatens the indy majority when it will have no impact whatsoever.  It's quite off-putting being blatantly lied to.

FWIW, that's not true. It's based on the assumption that the SNP keep all their constituencies in the region, and that's not a given. The Tories could well take Perthshire South and Kinross-shire, especially as Roseanna is standing down. If they lose that then they probably only need 2-3% more than they got on the list last time to get someone off it.

A Green vote is still more efficient, all else being equal, but it's not beyond the bounds that the SNP could get someone off that list, as they did in 2011.

 

[HTG]

Is it the case that the SNP vote - or indeed the entire pro-indy vote will be lower in these elections than would be the case in a referendum given that 16 & 17 year old can't vote and migrant workers may feel less inclined to vote in something like this rather than on a straightforward Yes/No question which might genuinely impact them?

 

[craigkillie]

16 and 17 year-olds can vote in Scottish elections.

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

Once again you are letting the Unionist side set the benchmark for a legitimate mandate and somehow expect those goalposts not to be hitched up and moved to whatever new stance they want to claim in the election's aftermath.

The mandate for an independence referendum is a majority support in the Scottish Parliament: the larger that majority, the larger the mandate. If Nicola Sturgeon and SNP strategists do not think that they can successfully make that case against seventh-tier no-mark opponents like Douglas Ross and Willie fucking Rennie then they're as well chucking it now. 

This is exactly it. Too many total suckers are doing the unionists' job for them by imposing fucking ludicrous restrictions on what constitutes a mandate.

Edited April 27, 2021 by NotThePars

[HTG]

10 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

16 and 17 year-olds can vote in Scottish elections.

Oops - thank you!

[Double Jack D]

17 minutes ago, GordonS said:

 

I would be really wary of applying polls to individual constituencies. The broad numbers in the projections won't be too far off, but there's so much variability between seats that you really need more local information. Uniform swing isn't so uniform any more.

FWIW, that's not true. It's based on the assumption that the SNP keep all their constituencies in the region, and that's not a given. The Tories could well take Perthshire South and Kinross-shire, especially as Roseanna is standing down. If they lose that then they probably only need 2-3% more than they got on the list last time to get someone off it.

A Green vote is still more efficient, all else being equal, but it's not beyond the bounds that the SNP could get someone off that list, as they did in 2011.

 

Fair enough, I'm assuming the SNP do as well in constituencies as they did in 2016, I should've said that. 

Even if they drop a couple in the region, voting for Greens or Alba on the list has a bigger likelihood of delivering another pro indy MSP whether or not the SNP are as successful as predicted on the constituency. I've no particular passion for the SNP any more and a number of their more comfortable MP's and MSP's are starting to really do my nut in on certain things.

For me, the pro indyref majority is all important at this election. Scottish politics is in a constitutional log jam until we have our say on whether we are willing to accept Brexit with rUK or not. We need to have the vote and move on...quickly. 

[Anonapersona]

8 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

This is exactly it. Too many total suckers are doing the unionists' job for them by imposing fucking ludicrous restrictions on what constitutes a mandate.

This is the feeling I'm getting as well.

Independence supporters need to be less submissive about the whole thing. Show some aggression. This is important shit.

[John Lambies Doos]

This is the feeling I'm getting as well.
Independence supporters need to be less submissive about the whole thing. Show some aggression. This is important shit.

Quite a cultural quandary in Scotland... Fight fight fight, but when the time comes we eat our cereal

[NotThePars]

20 minutes ago, Anonapersona said:

This is the feeling I'm getting as well.

Independence supporters need to be less submissive about the whole thing. Show some aggression. This is important shit.

The Tory strategy is clearly "just say no and let the SNP implode" and yet you have SNP supporters arguing that we should live and die by an SNP majority that's largely determined by the vagaries of the electoral system. You'd think these people were plants if they weren't so obviously stupid.

 

[Baxter Parp]

The SG could have moved for a referendum at any time in the past five years and got majority support in Parliament. Because independence is not all about the SNP. That they didn't do so has nothing to do with them having 63 seats and not 65. 
Letting the Yoons set the benchmark and using it as justification to browbeat people into literally wasting their votes on the SNP and letting a set of Yoon losers traipse into Parliament instead is absolutely laughable stuff. 

The yoons set the benchmark because they control Westminster and they control the media. There's f**k all the SNP can do about that. What's Alba's strategy for overcoming both?

[Baxter Parp]

This is the feeling I'm getting as well.
Independence supporters need to be less submissive about the whole thing. Show some aggression. This is important shit.

So...riots?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I hope that folk who see "ALBA" car stickers don't think that means that the driver/owner supports Salmond's shower.  [emoji15] They have been used by Gaelic speakers/advocates for years. 

By people that can actually pronounce Alba correctly.

[Salt n Vinegar]

19 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

6 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

I hope that folk who see "ALBA" car stickers don't think that means that the driver/owner supports Salmond's shower.  They have been used by Gaelic speakers/advocates for years. 

By people that can actually pronounce Alba correctly.

Tha thu ceart! 

[John Lambies Doos]

By people that can actually pronounce Alba correctly.

Maith thu

[vikingTON]

3 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

6 hours ago, virginton said:

 

The yoons set the benchmark because they control Westminster and they control the media.

The SNP has been in power in Scotland continuously since 2007, so please tell me more about the magical, agenda-setting power of the Unionist media. 

Quote

There's f**k all the SNP can do about that.

Then there's f**k all that a gormless both votes SNP strategy - even if a majority SNP government is delivered by sheer coincidence - can do about it either. 

Quote

What's Alba's strategy for overcoming both?

You'll need to ask an actual Alba representative or supporter for that. I'd be interested to see the SNP's working for 'these Yes MSPs elected = indyref; those (more) Yes MSPs elected = mandate ruined' though.

It's almost as if the both votes SNP mantra is about maintaining voter discipline and has got nothing to do with independence at all! 

Edited April 27, 2021 by vikingTON

[Baxter Parp]

41 minutes ago, virginton said:

The SNP has been in power in Scotland continuously since 2007, so please tell me more about the magical, agenda-setting power of the Unionist media. 

Are you pretending the SNP has gained any power or control over Westminster and the media that has supported it for hundreds of years since 2007?

43 minutes ago, virginton said:

Then there's f**k all that a gormless both votes SNP strategy - even if a majority SNP government is delivered by sheer coincidence - can do about it either. 

It got a referendum last time.

43 minutes ago, virginton said:

You'll need to ask an actual Alba representative or supporter for that.

Aye, between f**k all and nothing.

44 minutes ago, virginton said:

I'd be interested to see the SNP's working for 'these Yes MSPs elected = indyref; those (more) Yes MSPs elected = mandate ruined' though.

See: the last five years at Holyrood

45 minutes ago, virginton said:

It's almost as if the both votes SNP mantra is about maintaining voter discipline and has got nothing to do with independence at all! 

So an SNP majority = magical, a Yes majority = totally not magical and a sure way to win an indyref. It's almost as if you believe in sleepy cuddles santa and expect him to bring you presents come May 7th. 

[GordonS]

5 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

6 hours ago, Anonapersona said:

This is the feeling I'm getting as well.
Independence supporters need to be less submissive about the whole thing. Show some aggression. This is important shit.

Quite a cultural quandary in Scotland... Fight fight fight, but when the time comes we eat our cereal

Depends what you mean by "fighting". For the fundamentalists, they take that literally. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Baxter Parp said:

Are you pretending the SNP has gained any power or control over Westminster and the media that has supported it for hundreds of years since 2007?

 

Are you pretending that the opposition media control the narrative, in a country that the SNP has governed for 14 years from an unassailable position of strength? Apparently yes.

Quote

It got a referendum last time.

It didn't. 

Quote

See: the last five years at Holyrood

You mean when there was majority support for a referendum and the sitting SNP government did not actually put a ballot before Parliament to vote on? 

Really not sure how that's the Greens' fault for taking those final list seats tbh. 

Quote

So an SNP majority = magical, a Yes majority = totally not magical and a sure way to win an indyref. It's almost as if you believe in sleepy cuddles santa and expect him to bring you presents come May 7th. 

Declaring an SNP majority to be the decisive factor in getting a referendum is indeed the magical thinking on display here. 

Those of us who believe that the Scottish Parliament holds the mandate in its entirety - not just one self-declared grouping - will be looking for as many pro-independence MSPs elected as possible regardless of party stripe. For some bizarre* reason the SNP, whose entire raison d'etre is an independent Scotland, are opposed to this. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*

Spoiler

Not actually bizarre because it's all about hoarding single party power for themselves and settling pathetic squabbles.

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by vikingTON

[invergowrie arab]

Every time we have an election we get to a stage where the Greens are forecast to get 10-11 and it doesn't happen.

My data is telling me it will this time. Greens are going to see it through and  have a big night (long weekend)

It's also saying Alba are nowhere. Not in MS&F anyway. 

SNP to land where they are now +/-3 

You won't get much return on that vanilla prediction but that seems to be the way it's looking at the moment.

[Baxter Parp]

3 hours ago, virginton said:

Are you pretending that the opposition media control the narrative, in a country that the SNP has governed for 14 years from an unassailable position of strength? Apparently yes.

Of course yes, it's a fact. The SNP are elected despite the media, and  anybody with half a brain could acknowledge that.

3 hours ago, virginton said:

It didn't. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum 

HTH.

3 hours ago, virginton said:

You mean when there was majority support for a referendum and the sitting SNP government did not actually put a ballot before Parliament to vote on? 

The Referendums Scotland Bill passed in 2019, are you saying the SG should have gone ahead with a referendum last year?

3 hours ago, virginton said:

Declaring an SNP majority to be the decisive factor in getting a referendum is indeed the magical thinking on display here. 

I haven't done that, I've said the yoons will use it as an excuse.  If you're going to reply, at least pay some attention first.

3 hours ago, virginton said:

Those of us who believe that the Scottish Parliament holds the mandate in its entirety - not just one self-declared grouping - will be looking for as many pro-independence MSPs elected as possible regardless of party stripe.

Ah yes, because the party of bozos, wierdos and creeps is bound to strengthen the independence argument, isn't it?