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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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Labour having less seats than the tories in Scotland was already a minter but some result if they somehow manage to lose more seats than them at this election as well.

Edited by GiGi

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70 SNP and 11 Green MSPs sounds wonderful.
Those constituency figures will be grim reading for the Unionist parties.

Hammering away at Sturgeon - take note Jackie Baillie - after Hamilton was published - has done them no favours at all.

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As I said before, that pollster has never published a Scottish voter intention poll before so we have nothing to compare it with. They may have a house effect that leads to over-sampling of SNP votes. As ever, further polls are required... 

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What is the previous accuracy rate for polls with the 2nd vote system?

I'm guessing that tends to be much harder to predict (but i genuinely don't know).


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3 hours ago, GordonS said:

As I said before, that pollster has never published a Scottish voter intention poll before so we have nothing to compare it with. They may have a house effect that leads to over-sampling of SNP votes. As ever, further polls are required... 

^This guy knows what he's talking about.

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70 SNP MSPs and 11 Green MSPs gives a grand total of 63% pro-Indy MSPs in Parliament. What a fucking minter that would be for the Unionists, and I can see it happening. Momentum is now with SNP again after the Hamilton case. The Unionists were absolutely DESPERATE for that to go the other way as they knew they would be absolutely gubbed, and they now are.

Magical. Wonderful. 

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It's an opinion poll by reputable polling company. Why is there always a big conspiracy when polls don't go the way people want?

Until I seen the question asked , I would have serious misgivings about a poll commissioned by D.C. Thomsons.

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Just now, betting competition said:

 

Big deckchair paying off big style for Willie

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More than 20% of those who will vote SNP on the constituency will use their list vote elsewhere, but looks like the majority of that is going to the Greens not Alba.

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It's an opinion poll by reputable polling company. Why is there always a big conspiracy when polls don't go the way people want?
Oh, it's going the way I want, it's the question posed in the poll, which as far as I can see is not published, that I would have concerns about.

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8 minutes ago, Donathan said:

More than 20% of those who will vote SNP on the constituency will use their list vote elsewhere, but looks like the majority of that is going to the Greens not Alba.

 

jjpleasing.gif

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3% is pretty good for a spite party pulled out of someone's arse a couple of months before an election.

Must still be a bit disappointing to realise you're not Farage and the rabble are not yet roused, however. It'll be interesting to see how desperate Eck gets.

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Discounting the entire vote being concentrated in one or two regions which obviously isn't the case here, then even accounting for regional variations within that figure you're not getting seats if you're pulling in 3% nationally. Hopefully this'll be borne out by further polling, and it kills any momentum they're perceived to have.

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More than 20% of those who will vote SNP on the constituency will use their list vote elsewhere, but looks like the majority of that is going to the Greens not Alba.
Many have been saying for ages they were going to go SNP-Green - nothing is going to change that.

If anything it will make those who usually vote SNP-SNP think about voting Green instead on the list.

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Alba 3%..... greens at 11 on list%.

SNP at 49% on constituency and 38% on list.....

That could mean 65 / 66 snp seats.... and 11 green.

There's your supermajority.

Tories down to high teens from 28% last election.

Labour up a couple of %.

The tory idea that yoons should be tactical is not going to work as well as 2017.

Labour will gain ground on Tories.

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