betting competition Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Mahelp said: I don't think these polling figures are any real surprise. The SNP are apparently holding on to their core vote, but the events of the last few months have ensured that it's very difficult for them to get any momentum behind them. I've never believed that there would be an SNP majority, and tbh I think that the polling is probably underestimating the number of previous SNP voters that simply won't vote at all. I'll be very surprised if the SNP get the 63 seats that this polling is predicting. The polls are a bit of surprise to me with the Yes/No vote didn't expect the No vote to up 2 or 3%. The SNP majority is on a knife-edge looking at the polling, i do believe if they don't get a majority then we can forgot about forcing Boris to say yes to Section 30. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Just now, betting competition said: The polls are a bit of surprise to me with the Yes/No vote didn't expect the No vote to up 2 or 3%. The SNP majority is on a knife-edge looking at the polling, i do believe if they don't get a majority then we can forgot about forcing Boris to say yes to Section 30. Rightly so. There would be no point forcing a referendum that you would almost certainly lose. It's why I don't understand Boris being so against it. We lose again and it puts to bed the argument over brexit and the pandemic being good reasons for independence. It really would be a generation before another one. And I'll be dead by then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said: I don't think these polling figures are any real surprise. The SNP are apparently holding on to their core vote, but the events of the last few months have ensured that it's very difficult for them to get any momentum behind them. I've never believed that there would be an SNP majority, and tbh I think that the polling is probably underestimating the number of previous SNP voters that simply won't vote at all. I'll be very surprised if the SNP get the 63 seats that this polling is predicting. Well, let's not be too fatalistic here. The YG poll shows a pretty healthy SNP only majority, plus 11 Greens. Bear in mind all polls are put through a turnout filter. 2 hours ago, Pato said: Huge numbers for Labour, very impressive. Sarwar seems to be hitting the correct tone people are looking for in an opposition leader. Meanwhile those impressive Labour mumbers aren't apparent in ComRes as the Tories are up by the same amount. The huge number of "Others" in the ComRes poll is interesting as well - 7% I doubt we will see that on the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 What's your point?Of posting recently released polls on the polling thread...? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Suspect Device said: Rightly so. There would be no point forcing a referendum that you would almost certainly lose. It's why I don't understand Boris being so against it. We lose again and it puts to bed the argument over brexit and the pandemic being good reasons for independence. It really would be a generation before another one. And I'll be dead by then. I think the folk pushing for an indyref at the earliest opportunity are out of their minds, for exactly the reason you say. It is, at best, a coin toss right now and losing a second one in under 10 years could well be fatal. That's what happened in Quebec - it's 26 years since their second independence referendum was lost 49.42% to 50.58%, and now it's not even an issue. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Think I’ll wait on the results of the big poll on 6 May. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 10 hours ago, Baxter Parp said: The Alba effect. Oh dear. Won't be too long before Alba are getting blamed for the Father Ted Crilly approach to handling the SNP's financial accounts as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, GordonS said: I think the folk pushing for an indyref at the earliest opportunity are out of their minds, for exactly the reason you say. It is, at best, a coin toss right now and losing a second one in under 10 years could well be fatal. That's what happened in Quebec - it's 26 years since their second independence referendum was lost 49.42% to 50.58%, and now it's not even an issue. Not giving your people the right to self-determination because you're afraid you'll lose the vote is utter shitebag behaviour. If the SNP isn't keen on the current numbers then it should be running on a platform of 'more powers to Holyrood' instead and salami slice its preferred route to independence. If it wants a mandate for a poll then it does not get the right to him and haw until their party strategists think that the time is right before calling it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 FWIW I have data from around 1000 households now and SNP seem to be up on 2019 in FPTP. I think high 40s is about right. Not 50s 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 (edited) Hide Lex threads Ignore Lex posts Do not respond to Lex Shite postersthat hides away when the pendulum swings away from him unlike the big boy unionists like Kincardine and Stormzy. Edited April 22, 2021 by NotThePars 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Am I to assume that the non SNP supporting Yessers shouldn't be wasting any votes on SNP given they don't want indyref2 anytime soon? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 2 hours ago, GordonS said: I think the folk pushing for an indyref at the earliest opportunity are out of their minds, for exactly the reason you say. It is, at best, a coin toss right now and losing a second one in under 10 years could well be fatal. That's what happened in Quebec - it's 26 years since their second independence referendum was lost 49.42% to 50.58%, and now it's not even an issue. There's other factors at play in Quebec. The entire five hour CBC/C-Span broadcast is on YouTube - the Premier of Quebec killed the issue that night with a rather racist speech that put a lot of people off. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, Pato said: Nobody clap. Question Time chair thank you for comment. You sit down. Air feel heavy. Walls closer. Show ends. Chair thanks audience, everyone clap. Everyone has small chat. Nobody has small chat. You leave building. Get in Car. Go home. Wife ask how was day. Say nothing. Go to bed. Damn Thom Yorke really didn't have to go so hard on the 2021 remaster of Ok Computer 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Highland Capital said: There's other factors at play in Quebec. The entire five hour CBC/C-Span broadcast is on YouTube - the Premier of Quebec killed the issue that night with a rather racist speech that put a lot of people off. Sure, there are always unique factors. But the point remains that after a second referendum there was a strong view that there was no need for another. The risks of a second defeat are massive. I would definitely not expect to see independence happen in my lifetime after a second loss. We're probably only in the position for it to be a live issue now, 7 years down the road, because of Brexit. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, GordonS said: Sure, there are always unique factors. But the point remains that after a second referendum there was a strong view that there was no need for another. The risks of a second defeat are massive. I would definitely not expect to see independence happen in my lifetime after a second loss. We're probably only in the position for it to be a live issue now, 7 years down the road, because of Brexit. There was some expectation that Quebec was going to have another referendum in 1998 and in his concession speech (given just before the aforementioned racist one) the leader of Bloc Quebecois gave a brilliant speech where he said another referendum was coming soon (worth a watch if you have the time). I was once told by an anglo-Quebecer that for the English-speaking population, it was quite a scary time and he knew some who left Quebec in the run up to the referendum as it was beginning to feel as if they were being forced out by the Francophones. You couldn't really say that about our referendum and I can't imagine it going that way next time either. The fact that an overwhelming majority of younger people support independence means that it is inevitable unless there's major reforms in the UK along with a switch to the left which at the moment feels immensely unlikely. If there's another independence referendum in the next two or three years that returns a No vote, the issue would be over for a while...but I think the issue would arise again by the mid-2030s. Edited April 22, 2021 by Highland Capital 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Highland Capital said: The fact that an overwhelming majority support independence... Sorry, what? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 The lobster is Indy polling. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, GordonS said: Sorry, what? I've sorted it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The lobster is Indy polling. If this diminishes my enjoyment of lobster I will track you down and kill you.* For those posters who take things too literally, I do mean kill. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 22, 2021 Author Share Posted April 22, 2021 If this diminishes my enjoyment of lobster I will track you down and kill you.* For those posters who take things too literally, I do mean kill.Square go at least 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.