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John Lambies Doos

Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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The British state's post-war consensus from the NHS to nuclear weapons was literally determined by the Labour Party. New Labour were as comfortable working within and being represented by the establishment in the UK as their successors. 

But aye you keep pretending to be plucky wee outsiders running against the system. 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

It's easy to believe that UK politics over the last century has been a duopoly, and that the Labour party are an integral part of the 'establishment'.

It hasn't been, and they're not. 

A Labour government is a very rare thing. The Conservatives are THE party of government in the UK, and the majority of  political values and everyday decisions that have effected our lives have been determined over the last 100 years in greater part by the forces of conservatism. 

The status quo in the UK.....the 'establishment' if you want..... is conservative, and it's no surprise that an organ of the state such as the BBC runs in parallel lines with that. Not all their staff are pro-Tory, but the organisation itself is inherently conservative (small c). It's not, and never has been, a radical institution, and it struggles enormously to keep up with the dynamics with a United Kingdom that has changed out of sight in the last generation. 

They simply couldn't cope with the referendum in 2014, and almost 100 years of in-built conservatism meant that they leant towards the staus quo as a default position. I believe they've improved in the last 7 years, but much of their political coverage still sways towards the 'establishment' view. 

And no matter how long the SNP are in power, they'll never become the 'establishment'. Never. 

 

This. At least since the late 70s. I'm not old enough to know about the Harold Wilson era but new Labour was more about the UK being fed up of the Tories and Blair presenting an alternative that could be reconciled with the MSM and middle England than voters genuinely choosing a centre-left alternative.

 

Labour will get back in again but it won't really be off the back of their own doing, they just need to wait it out until the voters get fed up of the Conservatives again. I think the pandemic came early enough in this parliament that it'll be forgotten about by the next election and Boris will get another stomping majority.

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9 minutes ago, EH75 said:

You only have to look at the portrayal in most of the media of Jeremy Corbyn as some sort of reincarnation of Joseph Stalin for evidence of this. 

Labour under Corbyn were a threat to the status quo of British politics. That is, he would have formed a left-wing, almost socialist government...and we've had nothing like that since Wilson for a short time in the 60's. 

Blair led a Labour government which in general was a Tory-lite administration.....and therefore no threat to almost 4 generations of British social conservatism. 

 

Edited by Bob Mahelp

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10 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Labour under Corbyn were a threat to the status quo of British politics. That is, he would have formed a left-wing, almost socialist government...and we've had nothing like that since Wilson for a short time in the 60's. 

Blair led a Labour government which in general was a Tory-lite administration.....and therefore no threat to almost 4 generations of British social conservatism. 

 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Blair 

Blair 

Blair 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss

 

 

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17 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

It's easy to believe that UK politics over the last century has been a duopoly, and that the Labour party are an integral part of the 'establishment'.

It hasn't been, and they're not. 

A Labour government is a very rare thing. The Conservatives are THE party of government in the UK, and the majority of  political values and everyday decisions that have effected our lives have been determined over the last 100 years in greater part by the forces of conservatism. 

The status quo in the UK.....the 'establishment' if you want..... is conservative, and it's no surprise that an organ of the state such as the BBC runs in parallel lines with that. Not all their staff are pro-Tory, but the organisation itself is inherently conservative (small c). It's not, and never has been, a radical institution, and it struggles enormously to keep up with the dynamics with a United Kingdom that has changed out of sight in the last generation. 

They simply couldn't cope with the referendum in 2014, and almost 100 years of in-built conservatism meant that they leant towards the staus quo as a default position. I believe they've improved in the last 7 years, but much of their political coverage still sways towards the 'establishment' view. 

And no matter how long the SNP are in power, they'll never become the 'establishment'. Never. 

 

Completely right at UK level, but not in Scotland. Look at where all those former Scottish Labour ministers, MSPs and MPs are working now. You'll find lots of them in the media, trade unions and the third sector (more often on the commercial than charity side). Their strong links to unions mean they are still deeply ingrained in places like education (through COSLA, the EIS and the GTCS) and local government. Scotland has a Labour establishment.

Beyond political party loyalties, there are still circles in Scottish public life where support for independence is a cause for ridicule, and they're not too fussy who defeats the beastly SNP.

Edited by GordonS

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2 hours ago, sophia said:

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Blair 

Blair 

Blair 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss 

Loss

 

 

Yep, I'm 45 years old and Blair is the only Labour leader to win an election in my whole life. Five Conservative leaders have won general elections in that time, on 8 occasions.

Blair is as far left as the UK is willing to go.

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11 hours ago, Donathan said:

This. At least since the late 70s. I'm not old enough to know about the Harold Wilson era but new Labour was more about the UK being fed up of the Tories and Blair presenting an alternative that could be reconciled with the MSM and middle England than voters genuinely choosing a centre-left alternative.

 

Labour will get back in again but it won't really be off the back of their own doing, they just need to wait it out until the voters get fed up of the Conservatives again. I think the pandemic came early enough in this parliament that it'll be forgotten about by the next election and Boris will get another stomping majority.

The tory press consistently maliciously sniped at Blairs New Labour, it even extended to phone hacking, Tessa Jowell being one victim.

We've witnessed the extent of tory tactics this week to bring down opposition parties and it's not a new thing, in 2015 GCHQ ignoring the Wilson Doctrine which was declared non forcible in law, commenced monitoring MP's and members of the Devolved governments.

The tory establishment will stop at nothing to discredit opponents.

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16 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Yes, I saw that on the BBC news*

 

* of course I didn't

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Enjoyed a Webinar with John Curtice this morning talking about the election. Basically confirming that more than ever before this is now a quasi-independence election based on how the poll numbers stand up, particularly noting that in 2016 1 in 5 SNP voters were No-voters but now they're an absolutely tiny fraction. Some stuff I noted: 

  • Big JC was laughing at the arguments for EU taking place in 2014 because peoples attitudes then weren’t obvious in one direction or the other, but since 2016 there’s been a huge switch in Europhiles towards independence. Basically the pursuit of Brexit seems to have been at least the initial stimulus towards independence becoming more popular. 
  • 2017 drop for SNP was nothing to do with Indy, it was due to a large drop in their support from Leave voters -> Conservatives. 
  • Made a good point that whilst Scottish government obsess on who said what to who 3 years ago the rest of us are living in misery locked in the house. Huge view that Scotland could have handled this pandemic so much better were we to be independent initially, which likely led to that huge spike in May last year for “Yes” but it’s significantly narrowed over the past 6 months on both fronts. 
  • Salmond Sturgeon – Jan-March 36 to 44% Jump for those thinking Sturgeon told the truth, vs 37% didn’t, > 50% thought Salmond was bullshitting vs 10%ish otherwise. Basically, Sturgeon won the battle in the court of public opinion. 
  • We go into this election on a knife-edge in terms of SNP getting an overall majority for themselves, almost certain to do so with the greens. Far harder for UK Government to say no to another ref if it’s an SNP majority rather than the SNP/Greens.

His views have unfortunately made my (admittedly already softening) stance of not voting SNP because of the slow restriction let-up start to look weak considering what is "at stake" Indy wise. 

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Enjoyed a Webinar with John Curtice this morning talking about the election. Basically confirming that more than ever before this is now a quasi-independence election based on how the poll numbers stand up, particularly noting that in 2016 1 in 5 SNP voters were No-voters but now they're an absolutely tiny fraction. Some stuff I noted: 
  • Big JC was laughing at the arguments for EU taking place in 2014 because peoples attitudes then weren’t obvious in one direction or the other, but since 2016 there’s been a huge switch in Europhiles towards independence. Basically the pursuit of Brexit seems to have been at least the initial stimulus towards independence becoming more popular. 
  • 2017 drop for SNP was nothing to do with Indy, it was due to a large drop in their support from Leave voters -> Conservatives. 
  • Made a good point that whilst Scottish government obsess on who said what to who 3 years ago the rest of us are living in misery locked in the house. Huge view that Scotland could have handled this pandemic so much better were we to be independent initially, which likely led to that huge spike in May last year for “Yes” but it’s significantly narrowed over the past 6 months on both fronts. 
  • Salmond Sturgeon – Jan-March 36 to 44% Jump for those thinking Sturgeon told the truth, vs 37% didn’t, > 50% thought Salmond was bullshitting vs 10%ish otherwise. Basically, Sturgeon won the battle in the court of public opinion. 
  • We go into this election on a knife-edge in terms of SNP getting an overall majority for themselves, almost certain to do so with the greens. Far harder for UK Government to say no to another ref if it’s an SNP majority rather than the SNP/Greens.
His views have unfortunately made my (admittedly already softening) stance of not voting SNP because of the slow restriction let-up start to look weak considering what is "at stake" Indy wise. 
Good summation, struggling to understand your last paragraph?

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2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:
24 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:
Enjoyed a Webinar with John Curtice this morning talking about the election. Basically confirming that more than ever before this is now a quasi-independence election based on how the poll numbers stand up, particularly noting that in 2016 1 in 5 SNP voters were No-voters but now they're an absolutely tiny fraction. Some stuff I noted: 
  • Big JC was laughing at the arguments for EU taking place in 2014 because peoples attitudes then weren’t obvious in one direction or the other, but since 2016 there’s been a huge switch in Europhiles towards independence. Basically the pursuit of Brexit seems to have been at least the initial stimulus towards independence becoming more popular. 
  • 2017 drop for SNP was nothing to do with Indy, it was due to a large drop in their support from Leave voters -> Conservatives. 
  • Made a good point that whilst Scottish government obsess on who said what to who 3 years ago the rest of us are living in misery locked in the house. Huge view that Scotland could have handled this pandemic so much better were we to be independent initially, which likely led to that huge spike in May last year for “Yes” but it’s significantly narrowed over the past 6 months on both fronts. 
  • Salmond Sturgeon – Jan-March 36 to 44% Jump for those thinking Sturgeon told the truth, vs 37% didn’t, > 50% thought Salmond was bullshitting vs 10%ish otherwise. Basically, Sturgeon won the battle in the court of public opinion. 
  • We go into this election on a knife-edge in terms of SNP getting an overall majority for themselves, almost certain to do so with the greens. Far harder for UK Government to say no to another ref if it’s an SNP majority rather than the SNP/Greens.
His views have unfortunately made my (admittedly already softening) stance of not voting SNP because of the slow restriction let-up start to look weak considering what is "at stake" Indy wise. 

Good summation, struggling to understand your last paragraph?

If it's the last bullet point, JC was of the view that it is far harder for the UK government to keep saying no to a referendum if the SNP get an overall majority themselves. It's easier for them to ignore it if its a majority with the greens because in general people associate indy almost entirely with the SNP.

If its my last bit at the end, I've had a couple of calls with my local MSP regarding my frustration at the tone, language and outlook from the SNP from January-March in relation to Covid restrictions, and was for the vast majority certain that I would not vote to back them at this point. But given the way in which this election is shaping up, I'm becoming more inclined to lend them my vote, despite my enormous frustrations at a lot of things over the past 12 months. 

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If it's the last bullet point, JC was of the view that it is far harder for the UK government to keep saying no to a referendum if the SNP get an overall majority themselves. It's easier for them to ignore it if its a majority with the greens because in general people associate indy almost entirely with the SNP.
If its my last bit at the end, I've had a couple of calls with my local MSP regarding my frustration at the tone, language and outlook from the SNP from January-March in relation to Covid restrictions, and was for the vast majority certain that I would not vote to back them at this point. But given the way in which this election is shaping up, I'm becoming more inclined to lend them my vote, despite my enormous frustrations at a lot of things over the past 12 months. 
. Perhaps it's time for an indy coalition and ram the retoric home during campaign. Perception needs to change, SNP/Green is the independence vote, except in Borders where it's SNP/SNP. Harvie (Good guy) will get more MSPs and the overall independence majority will comfortably rise. A formal pact, it really is something that needs to be done. I'm an SNP member but greens are getting my list.

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Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

emoji106.png. Perhaps it's time for an indy coalition and ram the retoric home during campaign. Perception needs to change, SNP/Green is the independence vote, except in Borders where it's SNP/SNP. Harvie (Good guy) will get more MSPs and the overall independence majority will comfortably rise. A formal pact, it really is something that needs to be done. I'm an SNP member but greens are getting my list.

Indeed, I'm a G1 postcode, so Paddy would likely be my list vote. 

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A degree of nose-holding when voting given the current realities of what can be done by the SG is fine.

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2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

Fucking hell. 81% - 19% for 25-34 year olds. 

It really is just a matter of time. 

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