Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

It shoukld be pointed out of course that who wins the list seats is entirely dependent on who wins the constituencies. 

If the SNP were to lose constituency seats in the central belt for example, they would undoubtedly pick up at least one list seat there. 

I can't see a list of constituency majorities from 2016, but this page does give the top target seats for each party..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

It's very hard at this exact moment in time to predict how narrow seats will turn out, because the SNP are under severe attack in the media from the Tories and their polling has dipped slightly. It may recover when the campaign starts in earnest, or it may take a further downturn .

My own, entirely uneducated guess, is that the Tories will take a few seats from the SNP but may on the other hand lose seats like Edinburgh central back to them. I do not think we'll see a parliament in June that is really any different to the one we have now. 

And unless there is a major swing back to the SNP, it's virtually impossible to see a SNP majority in parliament. 

[John Lambies Doos]

It shoukld be pointed out of course that who wins the list seats is entirely dependent on who wins the constituencies. 
If the SNP were to lose constituency seats in the central belt for example, they would undoubtedly pick up at least one list seat there. 
I can't see a list of constituency majorities from 2016, but this page does give the top target seats for each party..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election
It's very hard at this exact moment in time to predict how narrow seats will turn out, because the SNP are under severe attack in the media from the Tories and their polling has dipped slightly. It may recover when the campaign starts in earnest, or it may take a further downturn .
My own, entirely uneducated guess, is that the Tories will take a few seats from the SNP but may on the other hand lose seats like Edinburgh central back to them. I do not think we'll see a parliament in June that is really any different to the one we have now. 
And unless there is a major swing back to the SNP, it's virtually impossible to see a SNP majority in parliament. 

Oof the campaign hasn't even started... Early days.
When Nicola is admonished by Hamilton, and when she announces the Euros will be coming to Glasgow, and when she published her unlock plan in April, the bounce will be big...
Keep the faith

[Gordon EF]

10 hours ago, alr said:

I've been having another play around with the excellent spreadsheet which @Reluctant Hero poseted here:

Was chatting to my dad the other day who lives in a Central constituency and I said that if I was still living in Lanarkshire I'd be SNP/Green but I have to suss out my voting intentions for Lothian.

Having another look through the 2016 results and recent polling it's hard to see anthing other than SNP getting 9 constituency seats in Central.

Lothian to me (I don't know the area too well - I'll be looking out for analysis from folk like Ballot Box Scotland) looks like 5 easy wins for SNP and 4 that I really don't know. Those are:

Edinburgh Central (Ruth Davidson won by 2% last time)

Edinburgh Pentlands (SNP beat Tories by 7% of the vote last time)

Edinburgh Southern (Labour beat SNP by 3%. Don't expect Labour to do well but are these the same people who vote for Ian Murray?)

Edinburgh Western (Lib Dems beat SNP by 7% last time).

 

I typically don't like any party having a majority in government but with Independence front and centre I'll probably be happy to give my 2nd vote to SNP if they're only looking like winning 5 or 6 constituencies. Lothian should be good for 2 Greens on the list again I reckon.

 

If you're just looking to maximise pro-independence MSPs in Lothian, it really should be SNP/Green. The Greens took the last list seat in Lothian in 2016 which means, they weren't far off losing it to the Tories or Labour. The SNP were further away from winning an extra MSP than the Greens were from losing it. I don't expect the SNP to have fewer constituency MSPs in 2016 and if anything, they'll probably take Edinburgh Central which will make it even harder for them to get a list MSP and even easier for the Tories to take that second Green list MSP.

If too many people vote SNP/SNP then effectively what could happen is that the SNP win Edinburgh Central from the Tories, only for that to give the Tories the extra list MSP at the expense of the Greens. SNP/Green maximises the chances of the SNP winning constituency seats and the Greens defending what they have now.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Oof the campaign hasn't even started... Early days.
When Nicola is admonished by Hamilton, and when she announces the Euros will be coming to Glasgow, and when she published her unlock plan in April, the bounce will be big...
Keep the faith

I'm liking your optimism, my friend..

The naturally cautious side of me though worries that enough mud has stuck on the SNP to guarantee that they won't have a majority. And let's be honest, that's the one and only aim of the Tories in Scotland.

The mood music over the last year has influenced the country into believing that we were definitely heading for an SNP majority in May.....something which under any circumstances, is incredibly difficult to achieve in Scotland. 

If/when the SNP fall short of that, the Tories will trumpet it loud and long that this is a massive victory for the forces of Unionism, there's no doubt about that. 

[SANTAN]

Because the media...

[NotThePars]

SO what happens to #themandate if the SNP increase their vote share and fall short of a majority

[John Lambies Doos]

SO what happens to #themandate if the SNP increase their vote share and fall short of a majority

Ask the media... Naw

[speckled tangerine]

I have my doubts on tactical voting. Who remembers the tears and snotters from everybody's favourite wide-eyed lunatic professor when this went tits up?

 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

I have my doubts on tactical voting. Who remembers the tears and snotters from everybody's favourite wide-eyed lunatic professor when this went tits up?
 
 

Effie Deans!!!!!!!!!

[John Lambies Doos]

Effie Deans!!!!!!!!!

https://www.effiedeans.com/2021/03/the-best-known-opposition-politician-in.html?m=1

[GordonS]

4 hours ago, speckled tangerine said:

I have my doubts on tactical voting. Who remembers the tears and snotters from everybody's favourite wide-eyed lunatic professor when this went tits up?

 

 

It wasn't wrong, but as I said it only works if enough people do it. In the example you gave, clearly people preferred another party instead. And tactical voting might have helped them keep Moray, where the Labour vote more than halved and the Tories clung on with a majority of 513; or West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, where the Labour vote collapsed and the Tory majority was 843; or Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, where there were big falls in the Labour and Tory votes and the LIb Dems hung on by 204 votes; or Edinburgh West and NE Fife, both of which followed the same pattern. In pretty much all of the seats the SNP didn't win there are signs of unionist tactical voting.

[Caledonian1]

17 hours ago, speckled tangerine said:

I have my doubts on tactical voting. Who remembers the tears and snotters from everybody's favourite wide-eyed lunatic professor when this went tits up?

 

 

I think there is quite a difference between tactical voting in a first past the post election (the 2019 general election or the fothcoming first vote) and for the second vote

[Donathan]

New poll "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom" shows 57% support for the remain option.

 

If the UKG are somehow bounced into allowing a referendum I wonder if they will insist on this question being asked instead of the Yes/No question.

[doulikefish]

Just now, Donathan said:

New poll "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom" shows 57% support for the remain option.

 

If the UKG are somehow bounced into allowing a referendum I wonder if they will insist on this question being asked instead of the Yes/No question.

Scotland in Union poll

[SweeperDee]

Just now, doulikefish said:

Scotland in Union poll

That's dire news for them if it's only 57% at such a loaded, poor question. 

[doulikefish]

2 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

That's dire news for them if it's only 57% at such a loaded, poor question. 

Effiedeans probably got confused and pressed the leave option 

[paolo2143]

That poll is actually goods news for YES voters as last time they ran same poll in September 2019 it was 59% remain so things are moving in right direction lol

[Highland Capital]

New poll out today has Yes on 51%, No on 49%.

[ICTChris]

Regarding the upcoming election, I think that over exposure might be a factor for the SNP and specifically Nicola Sturgeon.  She has been the face of the Covid response in this country which seems to be a positive thing as the perception from many people is that she has done better than the UK government (interestingly polls have shown that voters give the SG and NS credit for things like the furlough scheme and the relative successes of the vaccien rollout which are arguably more attributable to the UKG but that's another thing).  However, we've had a year of Nicola Sturgeon being the main point of contact for the pandemic in Scotland, she's appeared in the majoirty of daily briefings, she makes hersefl available for news interviews, the messaging is around her.  In England politicians like Hancock and Sunak have been very prominent in the response, here it's very mjuch been the Sturgeon show.  I can't remember the last time Jeanne Freeman, who is Health Secretary after all, was prominent in the response, she is certainly far lower key in Scotland than Hancock is in the UK government response.  Sunak has been at the centre of the UK Government response to Covid (not always for the better though) but Katie Forbes seems to be kept in a box until budget day or to give a comment about something Sunak has announced. 

That's also not taking into account the Salmond case and all the coverage and exposure around that.  It's not outwith the realms of possiblity that people might just get sick of hearing about Nicola Sturgeon and, on the margins, be less motiviated to vote for her or vote at all.

[craigkillie]

On 13/03/2021 at 00:59, GordonS said:

The current Rangers owns the intellectual property of the old Rangers - name, badge, goodwill (lol), that kind of thing. They bought that from the Administrator of the old Rangers. But they don't own the league membership of the old Rangers - that was dissolved and the current Rangers has a brand new membership of both the SPFL and the SFA. That's why they didn't have voting rights at first, because they were a completely new member. I don't think they could have played in Europe in their first three years either, had they been remotely good enough to be competitive in the Scottish Cup.

So technically, no, the old titles belong to a league member that doesn't exist any more. Those who believe otherwise must logically believe that Clydebank's old honours belong to Airdrie, because that's the same league membership.

No idea how this has ended up in a politics thread, but much of this isn't true. First of all, Rangers did retain the same SFA membership - that was why they were able to continue to compete in the Scottish Cup, retain their license and still hold the same voting rights they always did. In the eyes of the SFA they are very much the same club.

In terms of their league membership, first of all the SPFL didn't exist in 2012. Rangers were members of the SPL, and the SPL (as the SPFL does now) operates on a share based system, where clubs competing in the league own one share. When a team is relegated, or ceases to play in the league for whatever reason, they give up that share to the side replacing them. Therefore Rangers did give up their share of the SPL to Dundee, but that is not the same as saying that their membership was "dissolved" and says nothing about the history of the club. Dunfermline also had to give up their SPL share to Ross County that summer for the same reason, but nobody would take that as any sort of evidence that they can no longer claim their history (indeed it was the third time they had been relegated out of the SPL and had to go through that process).

Normally, clubs who are relegated from the SPL are automatically given membership of the SFL (but not always - for example Gretna may not have been granted it even if they had survived as a club given that they were unable to meet a number of conditions). However, Rangers were not relegated from the SPL, and instead had to be voted into the SFL as members. That was the reason that they didn't have voting rights to begin with, since they were originally voted in as associate members given that it was quite close to the start of the season and there were still a couple of issues that needed to be sorted out before they could become full members. The SFL and now SPFL have always been of the opinion that they are the same club as before, but of course this is essentially an editorial rather than legal choice given what has been explained about membership of the league. There is no legal "historic SPFL membership" in the way that there is for the SFA.

The European stuff is governed by UEFA, not the SFA, and relates to clubs being unable to compete in Europe until they have three years' worth of accounts for their present company, a rule which is basically designed to prevent teams from doing a newco without consequences. However, again UEFA treat Rangers as the same club from an editorial point of view - for example describing them as former Cup Winners' Cup winners, 2008 UEFA Cup finalists and so on. We don't really know how they would be treated from a legal perspective, since the only way to confirm that would have been via their UEFA coefficient, but that runs on a five year rolling basis, and by the time they returned to Europe in 2017/18 their most recent season in Europe (2011/12) had dropped off anyway.

Anyway, second vote Green please.

Edited March 18, 2021 by craigkillie