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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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4 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Absolutely- always will be.

Second team is Rangers.

Just signed a Rangers player today.

Who did you sign? It has been a good day right enough! 

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1 minute ago, Pato said:

Have never, will never understand folk who think they can support two teams in the same country.

Anyhow, quite a gut punch to independence in that poll, what do folk think is at play? Is it just fair weather friends who liked the SNP when COVID seemed to be an exceptionally serious issue going back to their normal views now the threat is receding, or is it folk scunnered with restrictions, or a bit of both? Is it folk getting put off by the Salmond stuff? It's quite a rapid shift.

I think it's a combination of the Salmond vs Sturgeon and the covid restrictions. I think the electorate are fickle and this could easily swing back and forth for a while but before now the SNP have had an easy ride so to speak and after a few months of MSM pressure and other things I think it was always going to happen. 

As I've said multiple times I think most polls as they stand wont be reflective of the results of another referendum if we have one sometime soon, I may be wrong but I sincerely believe if we were in the midst of a referendum then the polls would show different results than they do in a period when there's not the immediate threat of a referendum. 

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I think it's a combination of the Salmond vs Sturgeon and the covid restrictions. I think the electorate are fickle and this could easily swing back and forth for a while but before now the SNP have had an easy ride so to speak and after a few months of MSM pressure and other things I think it was always going to happen. 
As I've said multiple times I think most polls as they stand wont be reflective of the results of another referendum if we have one sometime soon, I may be wrong but I sincerely believe if we were in the midst of a referendum then the polls would show different results than they do in a period when there's not the immediate threat of a referendum. 
A very sensible post [emoji106]
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1 minute ago, Pato said:

I was sort of joking when I said this was going to take on a Clinton/Benghazi millstone effect on Sturgeon but I now firmly believe if this is the effect, that's exactly what coverage will be like from now until election day. And if it's not the Salmond saga it'll be some other story that suggests dishonesty etc. I'd be delighted with those numbers if I was a unionist.

I didn't follow US politics about that time, was that the whole pretend gunfire on the runway story? 

I do agree with what you say about it being a constant slow burner of a story and I must say as a Unionist I'm delighted by that because otherwise Nicola seems infallible, I'd happily take gutter press work to be her downfall but at the risk of sounding like a bigger dickhead than usual, I've always and for a long time had confidence in the Union and any potential referendums that may happen so I'm not surprised enough to be delighted. However from the offset on here I've stated that I believe the above to be the case and received a lot of stick for doing so, so I cant lie, it is on a very minor level satisfying to see polls that go a small way in showing that. 

It's also worth nothing that I'm not the one that brings polls into any debate so I'm not going crazy over this stuff, merely having a casual laugh, it's amusing to use this stuff against the people that take polls more seriously than me. 

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15 minutes ago, Pato said:

I was sort of joking when I said this was going to take on a Clinton/Benghazi millstone effect on Sturgeon but I now firmly believe if this is the effect, that's exactly what coverage will be like from now until election day. And if it's not the Salmond saga it'll be some other story that suggests dishonesty etc. I'd be delighted with those numbers if I was a unionist.

Not convinced by this take, because you're forgetting that the likes of Ross, Rennie and Sarwar will very soon have to actually face Sturgeon in public debates once the campaign starts. And given all the available evidence from UK election performances and the nick of the competitors, Sturgeon will utterly wipe the floor with them. 

Unless there's a further mine about to be exploded underneath the SG, I suspect this is the high water mark of unionism then, before a long pummeling back down to their base. And I say that as someone who isn't happy with the lockdown-mania of the SG, nor the continual squabbling within the SNP itself. The current opposition are bad enough to make the SNP campaign look like a Harlem Globetrotters' tour regardless.

Edited by vikingTON
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I think it's a combination of the Salmond vs Sturgeon and the covid restrictions. I think the electorate are fickle and this could easily swing back and forth for a while but before now the SNP have had an easy ride so to speak and after a few months of MSM pressure and other things I think it was always going to happen. 
As I've said multiple times I think most polls as they stand wont be reflective of the results of another referendum if we have one sometime soon, I may be wrong but I sincerely believe if we were in the midst of a referendum then the polls would show different results than they do in a period when there's not the immediate threat of a referendum. 
I have to agree with you.

Quite dangerous reading into one poll - thing can change quickly - I think a quicker opening up of restrictions are more likely to shift things the other way.

Hamilton will determine if the Salmond affair is put to bed as well.

The other news story that won't register on this poll is Boris lying to Parliament and the NHS pay rise - yes I know it's England - but these things do influence voters across the whole of the UK.

A lot to play for in May.
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It's not to say that the Sturgeon/Salmond stuff won't have some kind of effect but I don't buy for one second that anywhere approaching 1 in 10 independence supporters have suddenly said "You know what, I'm switching to No because of something about Nicola sturgeon not remembering a meeting or something".

It's a simplification I know, Yes da's please refrain from asking your questions.

The trend is the polls has obviously been largely upwards for Yes over the past year so I don't doubt the Yes numbers have possibly a bit more softness than the No ones do and we might see a shallower slide towards more 50:50 but I'd bet decent money the rolling averages are not going to show a step change in early March.

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32 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

What is it with Yes Da's. Can we please stop this shite patter?

Until Yes Das stop being hysterical, perma-raging crackpots detached from reality, no.

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Latest Panelbase poll pretty much confirms the earlier poll for the Sunday Mail that showed support for Indy dropping back and now has No on 51% vs. Yes on 49%.

Holyrood voting still has SNP on course for a majority. However, numbers have fallen back a bit.

No doubt now, I think that the last two weeks will have made a dent in numbers, so would expect the Tories at least to try and keep that alive. Though, as interest dies down those headlines will pass and therefore that effect might be temporary.

I still wonder though if there is an impact from the Coronavirus. Partly due to the success of the British vaccine rollout, partly due to the sense of crisis having passed and being replaced with impatience.

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When yes on 49 per cent on an unweighted poll is good news for British nationalists then you know they're struggling.

I reckon the true figure at the moment is yes around 52/53%. A great starting point before any campaigning starts.

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Just now, GTG_03 said:

When yes on 49 per cent on an unweighted poll is good news for British nationalists then you know they're struggling.

I reckon the true figure at the moment is yes around 52/53%. A great starting point before any campaigning starts.

There is a weighted panelbase poll with Yes on 49% I wasn't counting the unweighted Savanna poll.

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